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50nl PLO variance question 50nl PLO variance question

03-08-2010 , 09:26 AM
just started playing some PLO this week. ran over 20k hands with a 7.5 bb/100.. ran it up to $1501.

few questions about this..
is this sustainable? my hourly is around $62
am i a winning player at plo? i never really played PLO that much.
am i on a heater?
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03-08-2010 , 09:49 AM
wow how do you play 1,7k hands an hour as a beginner?
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03-08-2010 , 09:59 AM
I don't know how my plo graph is calculated. I started out with only a slight idea how to play and ended up running myself into the ground around 780. Does it calculate my hourly off of what I won? Or of what I won from -780 to 1501?
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03-08-2010 , 11:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kimdoocheol
I don't know how my plo graph is calculated. I started out with only a slight idea how to play and ended up running myself into the ground around 780. Does it calculate my hourly off of what I won? Or of what I won from -780 to 1501?
How much tables do you play?
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03-08-2010 , 12:00 PM
4
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03-08-2010 , 11:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kimdoocheol
just started playing some PLO this week. ran over 20k hands with a 7.5 bb/100.. ran it up to $1501.

few questions about this..
is this sustainable? my hourly is around $62
am i a winning player at plo? i never really played PLO that much.
am i on a heater?
yes you are on a heater, 7.5 is a lot.
i runned 8bb/100 for 30k hands and been broke in 4k hands/3days of doomswitch

good luck oppo
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03-09-2010 , 12:30 AM
20k hands is nowhere near enuff to determine if ur a winnning plo player or not. Just go over your hands and see if ur crushing flops and getting it in as a favorite all the time. And I dont think its sustainable because of the limited number of hands, but also because PLO variance is the devil. You can get it in with the nuts alot of the time and still lose by the river, which really really really sucks when it happens over and over and over and over again. Enjoy the run good, and when u keep getting sucked out on or coolered try not to lose your mind. Also im a bankroll nit and play 1/2 plo and nlhe with 100 buy in roll....so just make sure ur roll is big enuf to handle the swings. I once lost 20 buy ins in a day....that was fun FML
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03-09-2010 , 03:24 AM
You start to get an idea of how good you are and your winrate at about 100k hands. You can easily run super hot or really bad for 20k hands at PLO.
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03-09-2010 , 04:15 AM
Quote:
20k hands is nowhere near enuff to determine if ur a winnning plo player or not. Just go over your hands and see if ur crushing flops and getting it in as a favorite all the time. And I dont think its sustainable because of the limited number of hands, but also because PLO variance is the devil. You can get it in with the nuts alot of the time and still lose by the river, which really really really sucks when it happens over and over and over and over again. Enjoy the run good, and when u keep getting sucked out on or coolered try not to lose your mind. Also im a bankroll nit and play 1/2 plo and nlhe with 100 buy in roll....so just make sure ur roll is big enuf to handle the swings. I once lost 20 buy ins in a day....that was fun FML
Quote:
You start to get an idea of how good you are and your winrate at about 100k hands. You can easily run super hot or really bad for 20k hands at PLO.
This is the kind of nonsense you here on 2p2 all the time. Theres this weird insistence that smaller samples are completely meaningless, but fortunately theres this field of mathematics called "statistics" (look it up, its real) which gives us tools to talk about things like this in terms of probabilities (instead of the mystical "true winrate" that some people seem to think you arrive at after playing 2 million hands a drinking a magic potion). I googled "poker winrate calculator" and came up with this link :http://www.castrovalva.com/~la/win.htm. Youll need to know your standard deviation, which you can find if youve been using PT or HEM, if you havent just ask some people in this thread what there SD is over a 20k sample and we can plug a particularly high one into the calc. The upshot of it will be that you are almost certainly a winning player. Theres very little chance that you ran that good for 20k hands and expect to be a long term loser in that game. Theres also a fairly good chance that youre on a heater (just based on normal winrates), but it aint necessarily so. 8bb/100 translates to 4ptbb/100, I dont have a lot of experience in PLO stats, but that was in no way unheard of at NL50 (I think im at like 6ptbb/100 over something like 100k hands at 50NL) so theres no reason why that shouldnt be a sustainable winrate for you, although again, if youre just starting out it would be a little surprising for you to just crush the game.

Use the calc, you can see what range of winrates you can expect with what probabilities. Good luck.
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03-09-2010 , 02:49 PM
Yes, lots of people don't seem to realise that winning over a 20k hand stretch, while not rock solid statistical evidence that you're a winning player, certainly makes it more likely that you're a winning player as opposed to a loser.
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