Quote:
Originally Posted by jtm1208
Pre-Flop is not a definite "pot" to me with your position in the Small Blind. I think I'd probably lean toward a limp more often than a Raise/Pot. A mixture leaning heavier towards Calling with some raising mixed in is fine.
OTF: After Potting Pre, I'd probably lead out again. Around 60% pot. I think the players after you will play there hands pretty straight forward and will let you know how far behind you are and depending on the turn whether you can get them off a hand or not. I think you are going to get called by the decent draws, and 1 pair of queens. 2 pair + and a really good wrap will most likely raise and give you an easy out now.
As played, after you check I'd expect any 2 pair+ to bet and Probably AQxx especially if there is a backdoor flush or a gut shot for a straight, KQJT and QJT9 probably bet too as there is a ton of good cards that could come and improve those hands on further streets. Any good wraps will bet here. When it checks through, I'm not putting anyone on a super strong hand at this point.
Turn: As played, I check again. when the BB leads, I am putting her on 2 pair plus, or a good wrap with a flush draw (9765, T976, T987, A765 etc.) Occasional she may have a marginal queen + a gutshot for nuts (QT97, KQ97). QJT9 and KQJT probably bet the flop from this villain.
River: As played, Check for sure. If you bet here, I see the only calling hand you beat being AQxx, but we don't really think she'd have AQ as she would have probably bet the flop. You can consider throwing out a blocking bet, if you want to try and control how much money is going in on the river, but I like a check better as she is almost always betting this river. Then it comes down to how often does she boat up here versus how often does she miss her draws. The 2 pair hands that bet the flop almost all boat up as they mostly contain an 8. But you have an 8, so that makes it harder for her to have an 8. Based on the description of the Villain, I think she's betting a missed draw more often then a boat, and I think it's a call more often than a fold, by a decent margin.
I generally agree with this up to the river. On the river, she also has a reasonable number of 8x hands that have you outkicked. Stuff like A or Kc, 8x and a club draw, or A876. Would expect those to all bet when checked to, which pushes this to a fold for me. That said, can't tell from the read how bluffy V is, which is the key read because we're fully bluff-catching here.