Hero(1500) - Sat down with 500 about 30 minutes prior. Image is likely tight/nutty based on what I've shown down so far. Have raised one other time pf and c/f multiway.

Villain(3000) - Mid 30s. Appears to be winning and one of the "better" players at the table but who ****ing knows.

Hero is SB with Q T J 8. Several limps and hero makes is $30, 4 callers.

FLOP($150) T 7 2
Hero bets $100, fold, Villain calls from MP, fold, fold.

TURN($350) 4
Hero bets $350, Villain thinks for 5 sec and calls.

RIVER($1150) A
Hero...

Thoughts welcome on other streets as well as I was not real certain in general.

-draws missed
-you have showdown vs other draws
-nfd is now quite likely to have 2pr.
-youre repping pretty narrow for value.

its live and youve prob played about 2.5 hands so who really knows, but not much makes me want to barrel.

While I really don't like how the hand was played I actually think this betting river has merits.

The NFD and 2 pair will give him credit for a set of tens or possibly even AT a lot of the time.

When a guy has only been at the table for 30 minutes and has a nit image and has c/f flop after preflop raise in his only other hand you won't see very many players excited to bluff catch a 3 barrel no matter how thin hero's value range is.

when a guys been at tbl for 30mins i dont really think he has any kind of image based on how hes been playing unless something significant/unusual has gone on. image at that stage is much more tied to age/attire/demeanour etc.
also how many TT combos does a perceived nit (for sake of argument lets say hes viewed that way) have in his raise out of the sb multiway range?
if oppt has nfd +2pr hes imo folding almost never. id go so far as to say that we beat most of his folding range (whether he bluffs whn chkd to often enough to justify c/c is obv another question).

I don't really either . Could you be more specific? Most of the time I would check pf or check/evaluate flop as played. Any issue with turn?

Is there a decent portion of his range that is just AcXcXX where XcXX had a gutter or better to go with the flush draw?

I definitely give up and expect to win some amount of the time when it goes check-check and might even call a very small bet

if you dont know how to go about investigating questions like this yourself, id find out as a matter of urgency.

Definitely bet in a live game. People get to this river with much worse than just NFD. Too many better Tx, JJ-KK with just a gutter.

I'm kind of a PPT newb so bare with me. Not sure if I did this right.

Here I think I did nut flush draw with two pair not AAxx.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

3,037 trials (Exhaustive)

board: T724A

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
QcTdJd8c	0.00%	0	0
Ac!AA: (T,7,2,4):cc	100.00%	3,037	0

Here I tried to do what I was talking about, just top pair on river where villain had a straight draw to go with his flush draw.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

576 trials (Exhaustive)

board: T724A

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
QcTdJd8c	0.00%	0	0
Ac!AA!T!7!2!4: (56,86,89,J9):cc	100.00%	576	0

If you add in a hand like JJxx with two clubs to represent all the better Tx and JJ-KK that could play this way...

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

1,171 trials (Exhaustive)

board: T724A

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
QcTdJd8c	0.00%	0	0
Ac!AA!T!7!2!4: (56,86,89,J9):cc, JJ:cc	100.00%	1,171	0

Top two pair looks like this

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

979 trials (Exhaustive)

board: T724A

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
QcTdJd8c	0.00%	0	0
Ac!AA:T:cc	100.00%	979	0

If I did this right(big if), it looks like this really depends on two things -

A) how much not nut flush draw stuff peels the turn that beats us that almost always folds the river

B) depending on A of course, how often will he fold two pair

id buy ppt odds oracle. it has features that will enable you to get a better grasp on questions such as "stipulating that his range is x, how often will he have subrange y?" which will be useful to you in situations such as this. i think the web-based ppt has a combo counter or something but its been ages since ive used the site itself. the issue with what youre doing is that you arent trying to figure out ur equity vs his range or some element of it, youre trying to figure out how often he has certain hands within his range.

will def buy that. I know I'm not doing equities, but I'm guessing I incorrectly assumed that the number in the "wins" column was giving us a reflection on combos.

If I hit the "count" button for one of my simulations I get the following result: http://propokertools.com/simulations...3Acc&s=generic Can someone tell me what the difference is between optimized count and base count?

depends how good a player the villain is, i think he should be calling you down very light (2 pair) going of your bet sizing for all streets.

no clue on the difference, but the next step would be to build his entire range that limps behind an openlimper and flats ur raise pre (so presumably a pretty capped but not ridiculously weak range, say 15%-40% as a very rough approximation), then flats ur flop cbet and then flats ur turn bet. assuming that the "count" button yields no of combos, if you then do the same for that range as for the one you just created, it becomes a simple calculation to figure out how often he'll show up with the nfd+st draw!riv2pr.

final thought - id amend syntax to omit wraps since i assume hes prob playing those more agg on the flop (J9:cc!J98, 96:cc!986) etc.

The 66% number result here I think is pretty relevant assuming I input the info correctly. So if his entire turn calling range is made up of A-high flush draws or better and he never folds any two pair or calls with one pair, a river bet would lose 64bb in ev.

If he folds some two pair and/or is peeling as wide as some suggest for live games it looks like betting the river would have been +ev.

Disclaimer: I'm not certain the 66% is what I think it is. Any help appreciated.

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.26 Professional)
Omaha Hi, Generic syntax
Board - Th7c2c4sAh
PLAYER_1 QcTdJd8c
PLAYER_2 Ac!AA:cc
600000 trials (randomized)


All-in Equity

	Equity %	Wins Hi %	Ties Hi %	Wins Hi Count	Ties Hi Count
QcTdJd8c	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%	0	0
Ac!AA:cc	100.0000%	100.0000%	0.0000%	600000	0

How often do(es)
PLAYER_2 5-card hand type is at least two pair by the river
66.0502% (396301)

4 way xc flop has a lot of merit , esp at a 5/5 game

having gotten to river this way, i'd give up

Originally thought betting was better as it protects you from getting bluffed by missed wraps and kHigh flush draws and overpair etc and he might fold ax and some 2pair and jj-kk but now that I think about it he calls with a lot of his range he might check back worse and this seems like a river card I'd give up on. There are other rivers id fire though... And it seems close enough that either decision can't be too bad.

couple of suggested improvements

-narrow his range based on preflop, so Ac!AA:cc might become something like (Ac!AA:cc):15%-40%.
-refine further by omitting combo draws strong enough that he'd be very likely to raise flop, so no J98,986,T98,987 at the very least.

also idk if you made that assumption for sake of simplicity, but its obv not the case that this represents his entire turn calling range, its a single, albeit significant, factor that to me argues against barrelling. what ur really trying to find out imo is how often he gets to riv with hands better than yours that he folds, so 1pr stuff like KT98,JJ-KK,then maybe some weak 2prs (although now we're on dubious ground so id sim for 1pr combos to start with since any 2pr has a decent hero spot).

Definitely bet 950, it's an absolute disaster every time you check and lose to like JJ:cc KK:cc A983cc etc, all of which have a really hard time calling the river especially given a tight image and that you isoed OOP with presumably a high card heavy holding. I also would have bet 300 rather than pot on the turn with your specific holding.

Really read dependent. If he is indeed good I think he will call with 1p a ton. If he isn't you can get him of all 2p worse than AT by firing big.

I would also consider calling a lot in case he bets.

What does c/c accomplish that b/f doesn't? Keeping the nit table image? Betting takes advantage of his table image 100% of the time and c/c doesn't since he's only if villain is capable of bluffing this river (which hero seems readless about since he just sat down).

This hand seemed pretty standard to me but the length of this thread it seems like I'm wrong about that.

I think it would have been interesting if OP had 200bb with T7xx and got jammed on after making a thin river bet against a thinking/aggressive villain.

adding the 15-40% and omitting combo draws upped his two pair combos by 2.5%.

No, I was making the assumption as a worst case representation. The presence of the non nut flush draw stuff is a factor that would argue for betting the river. Which I think is what you are saying.

bluffing river with showdown value is not a good idea

If you cannot check-call, betting often is the best option. Especially in this case as you can make a bunch of two pair hands to fold. Betting around half a pot is enough, if villain does not have a two pair hand containing an ace, straight or (unlikely) set he probably will fold.

Agree, but it's a flawed statement in this context imo.