Hero (1k) New to table, very much a regular in this 2/2 $5 bring in game.

Villain (1k) Aggressive regular, can overplay hands in some spots. Has 3! with KK against my opens before, which 3! KK is rare for this player pool.


Hero has AA96dd in MP1, opens over 2 limps to 25, and villain 3! to 100 in CO, fold, fold and we make it 300. He calls.

(615) 944r ( we have backdoor D)

We each have 700 behind.... it seems like betting small to set up turn shove is the GTO answer..... but want to hear opinions as live PLO does play so different from online. With this villain any pot sized bet is only getting called by hands that beat us.

I usually only try to 4! these type of single suited AA hands (OOP) in spots we can get close to SPR 1, as I feel our hand is so face up.

Appreciate thoughts on spot in both the micro and macro !

I'm all over the place on this one

SPR 1 means you have some incentive to deny equity with pot-gii.
Flop texture probably favors him in trips somewhat; 933 is better for us.
Blocking the single pair and a nut backdoor draw(?) give us reason to check, I think. Would be good reasons to bluff if we didn't have the AA.

On balance let's check and see. Probably makes more money but def higher variance.

Don't check.


Given we are probably perceived to have AA and we do in fact have AA, and are never folding, I think it's fine to just shrug pot. You say he won't call KK to a pot here, which maybe, but given that the only reason he might call KK for 200 is if he has two BDFD or something.

betting $200 is unlikely to induce, and is the best case for villain when he has a hand like 9876/QJT8 with a BDFD and calls to see if he turns a big draw.

I think on flop we can bet around 200. Then if he has a hand like qq or jj and is a non believer(these types that 3! Kk as you described tend to call down much more often then others in these spots with these hand types) he's going to call and you can have optimal to put him all in on turn. Both 4 and 9 both hit his straight ranges as well although this is much more unlikely than a qq9x type or even a 9108q possibility.

Didnt read before posted. You think shrug and pot because if he has $300 in already with 7 left behind than yes he probably calls anyway with kkqq but why not if he has 910jj or omethingdo we not bet 200 here or so here? Thanks

From what I can see I think KKQQ _should_ call 200 on flop with 2 BDFD, and then call it off on turn with any K, Q or J/T+FD. Maybe people call it off on turn slightly bad with just a FD, so you get thin value there.

Maybe you get thin value on flop from KKQQ with only a single BDFD.

Everything without a 4 "should" fold flop for pot, I think, but they also lose ~$120 in pot equity.

JJT9 is similar in that you can get some thin value, maybe, on some turns. JT8/QJT less so as they make less mistakes on turns.
Both of those maybe also have bluff equity if you check K turns.


The main question I'd think about is why are you betting small, SPR is roughly 1 and we are never folding so ... do you get here a lot with AKQJ and want to bluff small, so you can fold that to a raise? Do you get here with 99 a lot and all the straight/flush outs are dead?


For me, I'd get here a lot with random AA hands I'm never folding so if villain wants to realize his 20% equity when he doesn't have a 4 he can put $600 in the pot for it ... and when I get here with AKQJ I'd pot that too.

To be fair I think you get a lot of folds with $200 anyway, and you always get it in bad to a 4 no matter what you bet ... so the majority of the results are going to be similar ... but for those edge cases you just made their life better by betting smaller.

I see.. thanks for speaking about value it resonates better with me. I think sometimes in the mix are hands like 6788 or 6789 that may think your bluffing when you get $200 and (even with kkqq hands) they may pot all in where if betting full pot it's just seems scarier and those hands or randoms(15/2025%) decide to bluff allin

It seems to me that there would be more value in the $200 bet.

If we bet $600, and we only get called by hands that beat us then wouldn't it be more profitable to bet $200 and get called by both hands that beat us and hands that are drawing?

If you think he will bet check raise. If not, just pot it and hope he don’t have a 4.

Thanks for all the feedback !

So in real time I checked, was hoping to trap a bit, and thought maybe he was aggressive enough to figure there was a chance I’d fold …

As far as potting the flop, I just didn’t think we could get ever called by worse… but maybe we could have

If I could play the hand over I think I probably would prefer I bet $200 rather than check…

SO in real time we checked…. He checks back.

We get a beautiful turn, which is the J of diamonds.

944r Jdd. So now we have nut diamond draws… I elected to bet $425 into 615… didn’t want to fold out worse diamond draws…