In pos I call this a lot. If we had even middle pair to go along with our wrap then shipping gets way way more attractive.

My turn plan would be to call any blank, and to fold most pairs. I used to worry a lot about getting folded off of the split in this sort of spot, but I've come to realize that calling in the next 60~ bbs drawing dead is a worse crime then sometimes being pushed off a chop.

I guess I just don't like shipping it so much because it turns a good draw into pretty much a flip against his range.



disclaimer: in an actual game I probably /do/ ship this quite a bit, because it's easier.

How many hands do you have on him? I wouldn't put much stock in the raise C-bet stat without a huge sample, and honestly I don't even know what's standard on it. It does sound like villain's fairly nitty though from his PF stats in which case, calling in position and folding board pairs >>> shoving.

Ship with 100BB, call when deeper then 150BB anybody?

BTW, calculating what percentage we have to be for shoving to be +EV as compared to folding is completely worthless since we already know that calling >>> folding. The key question is when we end up not getting money in on the turn does it save us more equity by allowing us to fold correctly than it costs us by the times we fold the best hand/don't get paid off upon hitting.

he never folds if u jam and has like top2, a set, or a massive draw here like always. Problem is u can't rep any draw that doesn't actually hit you. I just flat because ur probably a slight dog against his range and u can fold if board pairs. Honstly its so thin it hardly matters though.

without FE its 50% its always 50%. What the hell are u guys smoking.

Great post, CMYR!

Against anyone we think is remotely competent and aggressive calling is a pretty big mistake here I feel, our hand is kinda face up as a draw, we've almost always got good equity when called, and it's good for metagame. Against someone who can't fold two pair when we hit the turn, squarely has a set or two pair here, a bluffmonkey, or someone we just know really well and can manipulate, calling becomes much more attractive, as we have a clear plan of what to do and why on various rivers. Here, we might not get paid off if we hit, and can fold incorrectly when the board pairs as he puts us on a draw and he's played it like a made hand. If in doubt, keep things simple.

Since we don't have a pair in hand I don't think this is really that true. If you look at our equity against JUST his wrappy type hands its still pretty bad, dunno exactly but probably like 33-40% because he'll have a 1 pair in his hand quite often. Different ballgame if we have a pair obviously.

That said, against most tricky/aggressive types and esp. in this case I would think they fold to flop push at least once in a while. So I agree pushing is better here. Against a more straightforward person I feel like call is slightly better though.

It's party, even against a 21/12 you have no FE and he will prob autoship any turn with 95% of his range, so calling is way more profitable.

lol. Think a little before you make ignorant posts like this.

If there is $100 in the pot, and villain has $100 in his stack and shoves, how much equity do you need vs his range to make a correct call? Do you think you need 50% ? What if he shoves his last 1$ into a $100 pot, 50% also?

qft

you guys are torn like natalie imbruglia

My standard line is that. But now wazz made me doubt of that

+1. You will become easy to play against if you do this unless you are also flatting sets here some percentage which is a good plan for balance.

Why?

A Q J 6 0.362
K Q J 9 0.638

Yeah that's a very good point, if villain thinks we're flatting sets here we should more inclined to flat this draw.

I meant not have a pair

I really shouldn't argue with small stakes players. Apologies. Goodluck at the tables.

Apologies accepted.

We are happy that you have recognized that dudes that say we smoke stuff and are not able to explain themselves, but look down on ss players, are not quite needed here.

So gtfo tyvm gl2u2

I don't think your hand is so super transparent if you call, if he's that aggressive on the flop you could occasionally be calling with 2p+ intending to stack off on safe turns/possibly every turn.

Folding is out of the question. I would call, but if you want to go for a coinflip against a set, then by all means, ship. I personally wouldn't want to.

Pot has 237 in it after SB's c/r. After that, SB has 426 behind and we have 543. Therefore, if we have 0 FE, we are shoving our stack to win the pot+SB's stack
=> 543 to win 237+426 = 663
=> 663:543
=> 45%

Calling is clearly correct imo.

Insisting that calling turns your hand face up is misguided because (a) it's not true, you should call with several other different types of hands here, and (b) because of stacks he may be forced to get it in, or think he's forced to get it in, even if you do hit the turn, and (c) even if he can correctly fold turn he will usually have substantial equity anyway.

Ruling out a call just seems really inflexible and unsubtle to me.

Well, calling's just great if we hit the turn. Then we're +EV and villain is -EV. But what if we don't hit the turn? Fold? Get the rest of the moneys in? What if villain doesn't have a set at all but the board pairs on the turn. Do we mistakenly checkfold? Calling gives us opportunities to make mistakes that shoving doesn't.