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we are 15/85 dogs on the flop to AA
If you mean this particular flop, I'd like to play PLO20 with you
That's why you arrived at 46% in your calculation. As you may have noticed, I've included almost every decent hand/draw on the earth in my sim (besides QJT - OK, it boosts our equity to 42% but mind the PLO2 rake). Or do you mean the majority of flops where Villain doesn't get a set?
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Good thing about this board is that he cannot have AJ + wrap.
It's technically impossible to have a 2-pair+wrap in 4-card Omaha. Only a 2-pair+OESD/straight is possible.
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If I had a strong wrap on this board I'd be reraising you all day.
Do you have 5-3-2 in your UTG range? KQT is not strong enough on this flushdraw flop. Following the same logic, you could 3-bet the flop with absolute air here, but I wouldn't assume a random Villain to be capable of it.
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In any case, JJ66r is not a super weak hand. Versus a random 4 cards this hand wins 58%.
The problem is that random microstakers make many bad preflop cold calls. You're going to get 3-4-way, not exactly IP, in a bloated pot. Probably 3-betting JJ66 is good on BTN vs CO, but in MP vs UTG it's closer to the fold. (However, I don't know how Zoom plays, maybe it's less of a problem because opps are eager to fast-fold.)
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If villain was an 11/11 player
That's a pretty good assumption on UTG stats of an unknown Villain. Imho PLO2 is not the place to run 3-betting experiments against randoms.
Last edited by coon74; 05-16-2012 at 05:53 PM.