250BB deep, biggest draw vs. likely set: most EV line?
05-15-2015
, 12:10 PM
Quote:
Decided to run through some #s to figure it out myself; feel free to disagree with any calcs...all #'s are subject to approximation given different 4-card permutations, but these were my best estimates.
*Assuming villain has a set
EV of getting it all in on flop
53% of +$1,609
47% of -$1,492
EV = +$152
EV of calling flop, planning on folding turn if board pairs, calling otherwise
17.10% chance board pairs on turn, and fold to villain's bet (EV = -$454.2)
33.16% chance board does not pair, turn hits my draw, and all $ goes in (EV = $831.90)
49.74% chance board does not pair, turn blanks, and I call villain's PSB (EV = -$256.32)
EV of this line = +$73.75
___________________________
Not only is EV of line 1 > line 2, but it was making all sorts of assumptions like villain has set 100% of time, villain would def call off my turn PSB if my draw comes in, % board pairs turn goes check/check and I pay off a river bet, etc., etc., all of which would reduce EV of line 2 futher.
Getting it all in on flop seems clear-cut winner.
*Assuming villain has a set
EV of getting it all in on flop
53% of +$1,609
47% of -$1,492
EV = +$152
EV of calling flop, planning on folding turn if board pairs, calling otherwise
17.10% chance board pairs on turn, and fold to villain's bet (EV = -$454.2)
33.16% chance board does not pair, turn hits my draw, and all $ goes in (EV = $831.90)
49.74% chance board does not pair, turn blanks, and I call villain's PSB (EV = -$256.32)
EV of this line = +$73.75
___________________________
Not only is EV of line 1 > line 2, but it was making all sorts of assumptions like villain has set 100% of time, villain would def call off my turn PSB if my draw comes in, % board pairs turn goes check/check and I pay off a river bet, etc., etc., all of which would reduce EV of line 2 futher.
Getting it all in on flop seems clear-cut winner.
Felt a need to re-hash this thread (as a result of http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15...wrong-1532281/) , since these numbers are so wrong.
We have a few options here.
First, we can choose to GII on the flop. Our EV in that scenario, assuming opponent has top set, is (.5232)($1725) - (.4768)($1381.2) = $243.964
Note: $1725 value from winning is equal to current pot size ($343.8) + villain's stack ($1381.2), which equals $1725. Amount lost is equal to villain's current stack size ($1381.2)
OR, we can choose to wait until the turn. In this case, several different scenarios develop (NOTE: THESE EV Calculations are all from FLOP perspective):
1.) We hit, he hits: 0% (we can't both have the same outs)
2.) We hit, he doesn't hit: 42.222% (19 outs/45 cards left)
EV: (% chance winning)(Amount if win) - (% chance losing)(Amount if lost) = (.4222)[(.785)(1725) - (.215)(1381.2)]
= (.4222)($1057.17)=$446.359
3.) We don't hit, he hits: 13.333% (6 outs [we have a T in hand]/45 cards left). We lose the $348 call on the flop.
EV: (.13333)(-$348) = $-45.839
4.) We don't hit, he doesn't hit: 44.444% (20 outs/45 cards left)
Chance of winning in this scenario = 42.69%, SO
EV: (.44444)[(.4269)(1725) - (.5731)(1381.2)] = -$55.16322
Total EV if we wait until turn is ($446.359-45.839-55.16322) = $376.00
Clearly, the better option is to wait until turn.
05-16-2015
, 05:55 PM
07-05-2015
, 02:44 PM
#2 assumes he always calls on turn when we hit right? he doesnt always call
07-09-2015
, 02:18 PM
07-09-2015
, 04:22 PM
07-09-2015
, 05:24 PM
Ah that makes sense. Live games need antes 