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25$ PLO Zoom, Not sure what to do on the turn. 25$ PLO Zoom, Not sure what to do on the turn.

09-23-2015 , 01:01 PM
No history or read on villains.
I have no idea what to do on the turn because I feel that CO has a draw and his most likely draw is nut flush draw and MP most likely has some kind of made hand that has to be better than mine. But it feels so wrong to fold this hand.
Should I perhaps raise this on the flop?

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37124236

Hero (BTN): $27.77 (111.1 bb)
SB: $36.18 (144.7 bb)
BB: $25 (100 bb)
UTG: $25 (100 bb)
MP: $103.36 (413.4 bb)
CO: $24.90 (99.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 7 K Q T
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.85, CO calls $0.85, Hero calls $0.85, SB folds, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($3.50) K 2 6 (4 players)
BB checks, MP bets $3, CO calls $3, Hero calls $3, BB folds

Turn: ($12.50) 3 (3 players)
MP bets $8.50, CO calls $8.50, Hero ?
25$ PLO Zoom, Not sure what to do on the turn. Quote
09-24-2015 , 12:51 AM
Yeah I don't see MP continuing on this turn without a better made hand. Against a better made hand and the nut flush draw you're probably in pretty bad shape, drawing to non-club 2pair outs if you're not drawing dead here.

Someone would have to run a sim to be sure, but I think you need ~30% to call on this turn and you have approximately 35-36%% against AA + Axxx with nut clubs if I'm not mistaken.

I don't like raising this flop. AA w/ clubs will rip it in, bare AA is not likely folding, Axxx w/ clubs will likely peel as well.

as played call flop, call turn and reassess on river
25$ PLO Zoom, Not sure what to do on the turn. Quote
09-24-2015 , 05:58 AM
Solar, you think our two pair outs are good here?
25$ PLO Zoom, Not sure what to do on the turn. Quote
09-24-2015 , 06:25 AM
I'd raise preflop here, you want to get HU IP with MP. This will help clean up your flush draws too. If he 4bets you have a good hand to call. If it had been 3bet pre and this flop comes you've got a fistpump ship.
25$ PLO Zoom, Not sure what to do on the turn. Quote
09-24-2015 , 06:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kittens
I'd raise preflop here, you want to get HU IP with MP. This will help clean up your flush draws too. If he 4bets you have a good hand to call. If it had been 3bet pre and this flop comes you've got a fistpump ship.
you won´t get it hu the majority of the time.

you don´t have a good hand vs a 4bet

yes, you´ve got a fistpump ship on this board after bloating the pot pre, but that ain´t a good reason to 3bet.

pre is fine imo, as is flop.

turn might be pretty close, maybe someone will stove it, but in game given the fact that mp cbet almost pot, two players called, and he continues quite strongly on rather blank turn and gets called again on a dry board with the most likely draw by far being the nfd, tilts me towards folding due to very bad rio and maybe quite bad equity as well vs reasonable ranges.
25$ PLO Zoom, Not sure what to do on the turn. Quote
09-24-2015 , 09:07 AM
Folding turn, don't think it's close.
25$ PLO Zoom, Not sure what to do on the turn. Quote
09-24-2015 , 12:28 PM
Fold turn
25$ PLO Zoom, Not sure what to do on the turn. Quote
09-24-2015 , 07:24 PM
Honestly it can never be too bad to 3b a double suited like this pre-flop. Just plays so well in low SPR spots where so often we can flop pair + FD and be happy to stack off with reads being of little relevance. However, in a SRP like the scenario we find ourselves reads can be helpful and w/o them we can end up in some awkward spots like this.

As played post-flop, I'm probably just raising flop. Good amount of money in there already and yeh it can suck running into AA + NFD but we still have 27% equity even then.

Turn I disagree with it not being close. OOP it's a super easy fold but IP I think we have enough chance to realise our equity on rivers for calling to maybe be fine. But I dunno. Folding can never be a big mistake here.
25$ PLO Zoom, Not sure what to do on the turn. Quote
09-24-2015 , 07:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by F_Ivanovic
Turn I disagree with it not being close. OOP it's a super easy fold but IP I think we have enough chance to realise our equity on rivers for calling to maybe be fine. But I dunno. Folding can never be a big mistake here.
At least one of them will have Acc over half of the time, probably well over. In fact I'm trying to give both of them ranges that are draw-light, so MP barrels [sets+, Acc but only when it has a gutter, 2pr+backup] (not including a bunch of NFDs and various other FDs) and CO calls [sets+, Acc but only when it has a gutter, 2pr+backup] (minus 54/KK, just to remove some made hands that'd shove), and I can only get it down to a 75% chance of Acc being out there.

We really have to make them get pretty crazy with draws (MP double barrels every FD, CO calls with stuff like a gutter and a really bad FD) before we're in decent shape equity-wise. Even with that range, someone has Acc about 74% of the time. In that case, our equity on rivers looks sort of like this, with 2pr outs ending up being better than flush outs:

Code:
Ac 	100.00%
7s 	65.55%
7d 	65.05%
7h 	64.00%
Td 	60.50%
Ts 	59.21%
Qd 	58.32%
Qs 	57.29%
Kd 	52.16%
Kh 	51.42%
8c 	26.78%
Tc 	26.46%
Jc 	26.22%
Qc 	25.86%
9c 	25.54%
2d 	24.59%
2s 	23.94%
2h 	23.37%
6h 	22.72%
4c 	22.33%
6s 	22.05%
6d 	21.49%
5c 	21.01%
3s 	20.86%
3d 	19.89%
8s 	16.58%
9s 	16.15%
8d 	15.57%
9h 	15.44%
8h 	15.41%
Jd 	15.30%
9d 	15.16%
Js 	14.54%
Jh 	14.51%
3c 	13.36%
5d 	6.10%
5h 	6.09%
5s 	6.00%
4d 	5.23%
4h 	4.61%
4s 	4.46%
Ah 	1.47%
As 	1.28%
Ad 	1.14%
25$ PLO Zoom, Not sure what to do on the turn. Quote
09-24-2015 , 08:11 PM
Our average equity on possible rivers based on that seems quite good given we only need 22% equity to call turn though? It doesn't surprise me how often at least one villain will have the NFD but if we do river a flush don't you think MP and CO will play pretty honest/face up given they'll both be worried about us having the NFD?

And if we hit our 2 pair/trips I think again with it being 3-way we're going to be able to get to SD a fair bit without having to make a river decision; thus realizing our equity.
25$ PLO Zoom, Not sure what to do on the turn. Quote
09-25-2015 , 08:12 AM
Thanks for the advice guys, I guess my problem with this hand was that even when I hit my draws on the river I don't like my spot if I get shoved on. Also thanks for pointing out that maybe I should 3bet this hand preflop, I definitely need wider 3bet range.
25$ PLO Zoom, Not sure what to do on the turn. Quote
09-25-2015 , 11:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wallhallen
Thanks for the advice guys, I guess my problem with this hand was that even when I hit my draws on the river I don't like my spot if I get shoved on. Also thanks for pointing out that maybe I should 3bet this hand preflop, I definitely need wider 3bet range.
In position after a MP raise and CO call, definitely like a 3bet. Flatting the btn here gives SB/ BB good odds to call and we don't like our hand in a multi-way pot.
25$ PLO Zoom, Not sure what to do on the turn. Quote

      
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