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20out wrap vs nfd vs set 20out wrap vs nfd vs set

01-03-2015 , 01:28 AM
2/2 live, 9 player

utg = $500
mp = 500
hj (hero 8 9 q k) = 500

(don't remember what happened preflop.)

flop: 2 t j
utg checks, mp pots, hero calls, utg check raise pot, mp goes all in, Hero?

I put villain #1 on nfd. he's done this check raise squeeze play before with the nut draw.
I put villain #2 on a set.
I had the super wrap.

since I put one of them on the nfd, I had to discount my outs to 15.

15 x 4 = 60% to make my wrap by the river.
I'm getting 2:1 (33%) to call and I thought it was an EASY call. (I'm very sure utg is calling.)


ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: 2 t j
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
8s 9s qd kh28.07% 163,42610,073
jj42.80% 254,2835,119
ad d29.13% 171,6896,257

ProPokerTools says I only had 28% equity, thus should be a fold?!
HUH?
it's late and I'm probably missing something simple?
20out wrap vs nfd vs set Quote
01-03-2015 , 01:52 AM
Quote:
15 x 4 = 60% to make my wrap by the river.
Quote:
it's late and I'm probably missing something simple?
You can make your wrap and still lose the hand.
20out wrap vs nfd vs set Quote
01-03-2015 , 03:47 AM
Q and K are not nut outs. Flush cards and FH cards ruin your hand.
20out wrap vs nfd vs set Quote
01-03-2015 , 09:43 AM
so what is pot size on the flop....

can't see me folding.
20out wrap vs nfd vs set Quote
01-03-2015 , 12:36 PM
You could be up against 2 sets and in fantastic shape...also your equity needed to call depends on how much you need to call and what the pot size is. Since you give no preflop action it's impossible to see what odds you need to call.
20out wrap vs nfd vs set Quote

      
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