200PLO
Hero $200
Villain $122... Unknown. bought in for $150 and has been playing every hand (10) but it is 3 handed so who knows.

3 handed online

Button folds
Hero in SB raises to $6 with AJQ8
Villain in BB calls

Flop ($12) Q 89
Hero checks.
Villain bets $10. Hero calls.

Turn ($32) T

Hero checks. Villain bets $22. He has $84 behind.

Hero?

Looking for the merits of jamming vs calling. I appreciate your thoughts.

My first impression was this is a call with a strong but non-nutted hand that is very well protected on rivers. However after thinking more I like a jam in this spot since I believe the times you gain equity by vs. freerolling the same hand would be greater than the times you lose vs KJ on the few runouts where you could actually fold anyway (no solver math used by me, just estimating)

I'm just calling. I don't know enough about villain to feel confident in an adventurous play, and our early impression is that they're being careless in general. I just want to keep them wide and not gift them a larger pot if they're ahead.

I think jam is good. Don't think villain has many kj. Also since our boat and flush outs are not nutted, we are happy to get it now and avoid the reverse implied odds of being pipped.

always jam here..never flatting..we have 2pr, straight and FD.. SOMETHING has to be good LOL

no seriously though. if he has JT were freerolling..if he has KJT then we have around 30% give or take depending on which King he has. technically we cant "jam" pot is 98 which will leave him 8 behind if he calls. which is unlikely but worth noting.

I'm not saying I'm right or not deluded by variance, but:

Boy, gang. Must be nice to feel confident about jamming here, because I feel like it would never be +EV for me. Villains would just have too much equity too often, in my experience/estimation.

Jam turn at this stack size. No point worrying about KJ because this hand is, of course, committed to calling river anyway. Flatting doesn't save a significant amount of money in the event he has KJ. Might as well try to get it in now vs a bare straight, flush draw, which you are a sizeable favorite against.

Also, you could c-bet the flop for about 1/4 pot. Don't really want to give them a free shot at hitting a set, or picking up a backdoor flush draw. It's dangerous to define your range so early on "static" boards like Q98r. Checking is like putting up a sign that says "I don't have JT please bluff me". 1/4 pot works for JT and a lot of other hands you'd want to continue with.

I think it all comes down to how often he bets his Q high straights on the turn. I don't know the exact number at all but I would guess given the info we have in the OP, somewhere around 3x as many Q high straights as K high straights

Right.

But comparing the EV of calling versus raising needs to take into account how strong their continues (versus our raise) will be. We have the second nuts with a lot of non-nut redraws (and one nut out). There are a lot of ways this can become expensive if we're choosing to strengthen villain's range, especially when I always err on the side of assuming PLO players are loose-passive preflop and tight-passive postflop.

Thanks for the feedback. Hero jams and V GII. Villain was drawing dead with Js7s6x5x.

I would add that the classic bet 5/6 pot on flop, 11/16 psb on turn is not a particularly credible line for repping straight. (Given stacks)

I think I like jam too, unless you’re looking to happily fold on a bunch of run outs, or you think villain will have lots of bluffs you can catch, you’re not saving money vs better anyway, so you might as well jam.