$200 PLO table. No exact stats, but BTN seems like a good LAGTAG. Running poorly.

Hero is CO, holds A 7 Q A. 4 handed. Villain has $247.64 (123.82 bb), hero covers.

Hero opens to $5.33, Villain raises to $18.99, fold, fold, hero raises to $59.97, villain calls.

Flop ($122.94, SPR = 1.53): T 9 7

Hero bets $61.47, Villain raises to $187.67 and is all in, Hero calls $126.20

Thoughts:

This board hits 3bet/call ranges super well.. You'll almost never get your money in ahead or doing decent in this spot.

Preflop was fine, as you said you definitely want to lower the SPR so you can GII on good flops.

Post-flop is tough. Strong exploitative players will take advantage of your 4-bet, c/f flop range as it looks exactly like what you have, naked overpair with not much else to go with it that often so you could expect to be bluffed off the best hand a lot, but as I said above this board hits decent 3bet/call ranges super well and it's hard to think up a range of villains hands that we're doing well against when he open shoves our cbet so it's a hard board to GII on and be happy about it.

Not really sure of the math here, that board is pretty damn nasty vs a GII range

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

4,136,900 trials (Exhaustive)

board: T97

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
As7sQcAh	43.81%	1,791,060	42,663
AT	56.19%	2,303,177	42,663

I think you should check, and either fold or shove,

but someone will probably poker juice it and pot/shoving = gtd 5$ or some **** considering more than 25% of stack in pre.

i think my default play at this SPR is to check these boards with 3 connected + suit + high mid range with all my AA or i I might bet 15% pot , but if there was even just one extra gap on the board i think it is v significant/steep return

I find this type logic amusing.

You should have potted to give yourself even better odds to call, thus turning a bigger profit.

/sarcasm

The correct play is to check/fold on flop, you just have to give up AA sometimes, and this is the great spot. You elected wrong, a shove or ~85% pot bet on the flop is a much better option then a half pot bet if you decided you are all-in, not that much will change, but you at least take away from him the ability to bluff you, which will happen quite a bit after your p ussy bet of flop.

I personally try to avoid playing pots with good LAGTAGs so fold pre

"fold pre" - anonymous

Age old advice right there.

SPR is something like 1.5

We need around 38% of equity to break even.

We have 50% of equity against a top 10% range.

Can someone explain me how is pot/calling this flop ev- and worst than check/folding?

Nasty flop, sometimes you just got to cry fold

Against a tough opponent i'm gonna check nearly all my range here, because i don't want my checking range to be too weak. That way you'll be able to c/shove with good equity when you do hit.

Here you're at the absolute bottom of your range (except for the BDFD). I think c/f is fine.

Yup, if villain 3bets 12% ip (PJ $3b12i) excluding AA and is stacking off 7+,dd,qj (92% of pf range), we are 36% against stackoff range and shoving shows $4.42 profit

I have to assume obviusly this account the death money we get when villain folds the 8% of times.

This analysis can be done with Odds Oracle?

Yes, the reason we profit is this 8% folding.

I did it in PJ, should be doable in OO too.

When we give Villian 20% range (excluding AA**) we get an equity of 47% on this nasty flop in odds oracle. So in my opinion we should go for it and bet pot. The advantage of pushing is that we get villian to fold some of his hands that have a lot of equity these folds are making a push more and more +EV.

Problem is people don't operate in generic top % ranges, when they perceive AA the top % of hands drastically alters... I.e many PPT top 10% hands are clear folds preflop to a 4b. But a rank 46 hand can have so much more equity... something like J934ds is a way easier call than AKK2r. Poker juice is supposedly more accurate but can it alter hand ranking vs specific ranges.. like enemy is actually aware/balanced... don't think so.

There are certainly players who you are -ev shoving against there, although its always going to be close enough to not give a **** and the line as a whole will always show unexploitable profit. Just not maximized profit.

This is wrong on many levels imo, but will come down to stereotypical views of the common meta.

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