Villain is a big whale. Are we deep enough to c/f or can we bet against this kind of player? He probably has close-ish to any 4 cards here.


PokerStars - $1 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BTN: $131.20
SB: $126.88
BB: $106.07
Hero (UTG): $100.18
CO: $24.22

SB posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero has K 6 K T

Hero raises to $3.00, CO calls $3.00, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($7.50, 2 players) 6 7 9
Hero bets $5.00, CO raises to $21.22 and is all-in

c/c
or c/f, although you don´t wanna
pretty close between those two, largely depending on your reads on him and postflop capability imo

easy pot/call

yeah lol, agree, didnt see the stacksizes

Pot call. Very very basic stuff tbh

Cool, this is my most noob-ish side of plo don't worry =]

I for one love reading your hand posts here. Learning the game myself, and your hands are usually very similar to those where I get confused.

Rooting for you to crush nose-bleeds omaha soon! gogogo

You know I'm a PLO noob too, so I was hoping I could learn from you why this is an easy pot/call. Our hand seems to have little equity on this flop, and almost no way to improve especially as we would hate to see the K.

By contrast, the flop seems to smack CO's range. He could easily have a straight, set, 2P or a combo draw. It feels to me like one of those hands where if we get stacks in, we're a small fav or a big dog.

Is this thinking totally off?

It's a pure math spot.

You have to crunch the numbers. Qualitative arguments just won't cut it.* There are many similar-looking spots where pot/calling is a mistake even though the exact same "arguments" hold true.

You're indeed a significant dog against [two pair+, pair+FD, SD+FD] (OP said that villain has "close-ish to any four cards", so his preflop range should be pretty wide):



But that's only ~42% of his range:



At this stack depth, you can approximate the solution by assuming villain plays jam/fold -- there isn't enough behind for getting called to hurt our EV a lot.

The EV would be roughly (-6.238)*(0.42) + (7.50)*(0.58) = $1.73 minus rake.

If villain chooses to gamble it up much wider, which I think is a more reasonable assumption, we're only a slight dog and don't need fold equity.


N.B., if villain will stab frequently when checked to, it's an even easier check/pot, but OP didn't give us much to go on.


*Minor digression: It's important to note that posts like "We have an overpair and a pair+gutter, the SPR is low, and villain is a fish with an ultra wide range" -- just an example -- can't really function as arguments. If that's supposed to be an argument, it's not a very good one.

What they can function as is verbal summaries of PPT/OO sims. Essentially: "I've run the sims, and what they have taught me is that pot/calling is almost always the way to go when we have an overpair and a pair+gutter in a low-SPR situation against a wide range". That's fine. That works.

Thanks for the great response! Always trust the math. Too bad I'm hopeless with numbers lol