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100plo - bad rundown mw IP 3bet pot 100plo - bad rundown mw IP 3bet pot

01-02-2012 , 03:27 AM
BB is 29/19 with a 11.5% 3bet which is significantly higher vs steals. He has cbet 3 out of 5 times as the 3bettor so far. He's not very tricky or anything so I'd expect him to bet everything he wants to get it in and check to x/f.
SB is 36/11. Very passive postflop. I think he's the main focus here.
His range after pre is wide since he doesn't fold much vs steals and calls every 3bet. He is getting in KK, K:15%, K7 and wraps I guess. I'm not doing bad vs that range (48% vs KK, K:15%, 789T, K7) and the pot is alrdy huge.
Anyone not shoving here? Do I just pot it or bet sth like $30?

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

MP: $55.55 (55.6 bb)
CO: $237 (237 bb)
Hero (BTN): $127.85 (127.9 bb)
SB: $143.10 (143.1 bb)
BB: $118.65 (118.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 5 3 6 4
MP folds, CO calls $1, Hero raises to $4, SB calls $3.50, BB raises to $17, CO folds, Hero calls $13, SB calls $13

Flop: ($52) K 7 6 (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero??
100plo - bad rundown mw IP 3bet pot Quote
01-02-2012 , 05:16 AM
Pot
100plo - bad rundown mw IP 3bet pot Quote
01-02-2012 , 05:20 AM
checking isn't terrible

Spoiler:
but don't do it
100plo - bad rundown mw IP 3bet pot Quote
01-02-2012 , 05:45 AM
Take a card, especially if youve been abusing position. Your on the low side of the straight draw anyway. Any 9 10 j or q really changes the strength of your hand.

I just dont think anything less then a pot size bet has any fold equity here. And potting is over valuing your draw.

Take a card and hit, you can still get your value bet in on the turn.
100plo - bad rundown mw IP 3bet pot Quote
01-02-2012 , 06:30 AM
Definitely potting with the amount of money in the pot
100plo - bad rundown mw IP 3bet pot Quote
01-02-2012 , 07:25 AM
checking isn't terrible
Spoiler:
do it
100plo - bad rundown mw IP 3bet pot Quote
01-02-2012 , 09:22 AM
pot it fo sho. lots of bad stuff can happen on the turn (EVERYTHING has equity against us, we can be bluffed off our hand, we can get coolored by straight over straight). on the flop we are rarely in terrible shape if we get it in, we can get him to fold a better made hand, we keep them both from realizing their equity.
100plo - bad rundown mw IP 3bet pot Quote
01-02-2012 , 11:56 AM
I would bet also. The 3-bettor is check/folding here +90% of the time so your really concern is the SB which will fold a decent % of the time also. Picking these mid sized pots really add up to your winrate.

Pot it and embrace the beautiful world of plo variance.
100plo - bad rundown mw IP 3bet pot Quote
01-02-2012 , 12:08 PM
Pot the flop for max FE.

You are commited and your hand is disguised. BB is c/f alot here but its going to be a close spot against SB when you get called.

Dont like preflop play tho.
100plo - bad rundown mw IP 3bet pot Quote
01-02-2012 , 12:43 PM
plo rule #2: dont overplay small rundowns...
100plo - bad rundown mw IP 3bet pot Quote
01-02-2012 , 12:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by F3rz3nd3
plo rule #2: dont overplay small rundowns...
Exactly. > thats why me not like PF play.
100plo - bad rundown mw IP 3bet pot Quote
01-02-2012 , 01:59 PM
I think you need to pot the flop and get it in, since so many of the times we hit on the turn we don't know that we're good, and I like avoiding tricky decisions. We don't need to win it here that often for potting to be very clearly good, and we have to play a lot more poker if we check.
100plo - bad rundown mw IP 3bet pot Quote
01-02-2012 , 04:43 PM
Early position just checks a straight draw fearing a repot. So if you pot, and early position calls, third hand is really priced in to draw even more miracle plo degen draws. T a k e a Card.

Keep it simple. There's no real fold equity here. The only fold equity is if you pot it and early position repots it on a bigger draw + made kings. Then your "the equity".
100plo - bad rundown mw IP 3bet pot Quote
01-03-2012 , 02:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grenzen
Early position just checks a straight draw fearing a repot. So if you pot, and early position calls, third hand is really priced in to draw even more miracle plo degen draws. T a k e a Card.

Keep it simple. There's no real fold equity here. The only fold equity is if you pot it and early position repots it on a bigger draw + made kings. Then your "the equity".
Actually there is quite a bit of FE, since SB would shove sometimes with 2pr or a good draw/ pair+draw and the sqeezer would Cbet if he wanted to get it in.
100plo - bad rundown mw IP 3bet pot Quote
01-03-2012 , 05:25 AM
why is pre bad?

we have a deceptive hand with position and SB is likely to call 3b
100plo - bad rundown mw IP 3bet pot Quote
01-03-2012 , 06:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pFEy
Actually there is quite a bit of FE, since SB would shove sometimes with 2pr or a good draw/ pair+draw and the sqeezer would Cbet if he wanted to get it in.
Calling hands range I'm putting at 65 to 35% favorite over our draw. This is pretty fair considering we are only on a low side draw with a weak pair kicker. Also I calculated that every called hand would be playing for our entire stack. ( I mean your not punting on the river, right? )

So we have to get the other 2 callers to fold 75% of the time for this to the be profitable.

See this is what I don't see. Your basically turning every checked down hand in late position into a bluff because of fold equity.

I really dont see Any player being able to dominate a table like that.
100plo - bad rundown mw IP 3bet pot Quote
01-03-2012 , 07:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bartolomeus
Exactly. > thats why me not like PF play.
Pf is standard. what are you doing? folding?
100plo - bad rundown mw IP 3bet pot Quote
01-03-2012 , 03:15 PM
its bad pre if we cold called, we opened over a limper and we have btn, forget bout folding pre
100plo - bad rundown mw IP 3bet pot Quote
01-03-2012 , 04:42 PM
BB is 29/19 with a 11.5% 3bet which is significantly higher vs steals. He has cbet 3 out of 5 times as the 3bettor so far. He's not very tricky or anything
---
^based my decission on his reads.

thats why im not raising this hand OTB against BB in a, what will most likely be a multiway pot, his BB defend range has us beat and a 3rd player might come along dominating our draws.

Our Hand is disguised which is good but not strong enough to play a bloated multiway pot.

In generall i coldcall preflop and call BBs raise, keeping the pot small. Makes our decissions easier 100bb deep.
100plo - bad rundown mw IP 3bet pot Quote
01-03-2012 , 04:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grenzen
Calling hands range I'm putting at 65 to 35% favorite over our draw. This is pretty fair considering we are only on a low side draw with a weak pair kicker. Also I calculated that every called hand would be playing for our entire stack. ( I mean your not punting on the river, right? )

So we have to get the other 2 callers to fold 75% of the time for this to the be profitable.

See this is what I don't see. Your basically turning every checked down hand in late position into a bluff because of fold equity.

I really dont see Any player being able to dominate a table like that.
I didn't do the math, but them having to fold 75% for this to be profitable sounds way off.
100plo - bad rundown mw IP 3bet pot Quote
01-03-2012 , 05:06 PM
(x)*($52) + (1-x)*(0.35*$162 + 0.65*-$110)=0

x% of the time we win the pot $52 right away, the other times (1-x) we win the pot+his $110 35% of the time and lose our stack $110 .65% of the time.

The 35%/65% are based on your assumption.

52x + (1-x)*($56,7 - $71,5) = 0

52x + (56.7 - 71.5 - 56.7x + 71.5x) = 0

52x - 14.8 + 14.8x

66.8x = 14.8

x = 0,22

He needs to fold 22% of the time. Not shoving here is pretty terrible if we really have 35% vs his range.
100plo - bad rundown mw IP 3bet pot Quote
01-03-2012 , 05:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bartolomeus
BB is 29/19 with a 11.5% 3bet which is significantly higher vs steals. He has cbet 3 out of 5 times as the 3bettor so far. He's not very tricky or anything
---
^based my decission on his reads.

thats why im not raising this hand OTB against BB in a, what will most likely be a multiway pot, his BB defend range has us beat and a 3rd player might come along dominating our draws.

Our Hand is disguised which is good but not strong enough to play a bloated multiway pot.

In generall i coldcall preflop and call BBs raise, keeping the pot small. Makes our decissions easier 100bb deep.
Disagree. Also really dont get this disguised thing your sometimes talk about. Sound like old school suited connector stuff
100plo - bad rundown mw IP 3bet pot Quote
01-03-2012 , 08:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pFEy
(x)*($52) + (1-x)*(0.35*$162 + 0.65*-$110)=0

x% of the time we win the pot $52 right away, the other times (1-x) we win the pot+his $110 35% of the time and lose our stack $110 .65% of the time.

The 35%/65% are based on your assumption.

52x + (1-x)*($56,7 - $71,5) = 0

52x + (56.7 - 71.5 - 56.7x + 71.5x) = 0

52x - 14.8 + 14.8x

66.8x = 14.8

x = 0,22

He needs to fold 22% of the time. Not shoving here is pretty terrible if we really have 35% vs his range.
false false false false---you proved shoving >0 ev if folding 22% of the time--not that shoving> check

just math nit picking
100plo - bad rundown mw IP 3bet pot Quote
01-03-2012 , 08:38 PM
Pre is super standard. Now pot.
100plo - bad rundown mw IP 3bet pot Quote
01-03-2012 , 09:26 PM
If we do not want to bloat the pot so much we can make it 3x over the limper on the BTN.......but yea Im betting here....SB would lead with strength, BB would bet if he wanted to get it in....I Pot it, put pressure on them
100plo - bad rundown mw IP 3bet pot Quote

      
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