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100 PLO: Is this really a jam? 100 PLO: Is this really a jam?

02-17-2010 , 07:17 PM
Villain is 32/11/3 10%/40times 3b. High cbet %. Considering fold equity, is this really a jam everytime? Shieeet

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
PL Omaha $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($121)
BB ($107)
UTG ($98.50)
UTG+1 ($33.50)
Hero ($109)
BTN ($118)

Dealt to Hero T 7 8 9

fold, fold, Hero raises to $3.50, BTN raises to $12, fold, fold, Hero calls $8.50

FLOP ($25.50) 8 A Q

Hero checks, BTN bets $21,

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: adqd8c
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
td8d7s9h42.06% 251,4901,737
AA**, AKQJ, A*d*d*57.94% 346,7731,737
100 PLO: Is this really a jam? Quote
02-17-2010 , 07:28 PM
nah u can c/f i think.
100 PLO: Is this really a jam? Quote
02-17-2010 , 07:34 PM
i think so especially since villains cbet ace high boards too liberally imo.
100 PLO: Is this really a jam? Quote
02-17-2010 , 07:46 PM
oh didnt see villain's 3bet stat.

throw some JT9* type hands into his range and see what happens.
100 PLO: Is this really a jam? Quote
02-17-2010 , 07:48 PM
pls tell me who this is:

100 PLO: Is this really a jam? Quote
02-17-2010 , 08:50 PM
vs someone with a really high 3bet% you gotta jam here
100 PLO: Is this really a jam? Quote
02-17-2010 , 10:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ATrebek
pls tell me who this is:

my guess is: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Herbig
100 PLO: Is this really a jam? Quote
02-17-2010 , 10:59 PM
Hey, if we're going to break out the equity sims, let's take this sh*t serious!

This is my first one using ev++, don't know whether this one is better than PPTbeta so let's find out.

If this isn't a reasonable range, someone come up with a better one:

Omaha Hi Poker Simulation by ev++ Equity Calculator :: Enumerated 600000 hands
Board Cards :: A Q 8
Player Hands Combos / % Win Hi % Tie Hi % Equity %
1 Td8d7s9h 1 / 0.0% 39.86 0.54 40.13
2 (AA** l AKQJ l A*d*d* l QQ** l JTK* l JT9)&10% 6683 / 2.5% 59.60 0.54 59.87
100 PLO: Is this really a jam? Quote
02-17-2010 , 11:09 PM
So yeah, to get it in with no fold equity we need 44%; even the more pessimistic sims have us at 37%, so he doesn't need to be bet-folding very often at all for this jam to be profitable in a vacuum. It also adds a lot of profit to the rest of our raise/call range pre and will prevent him a) from 3betting you quite as light and b) from c-betting quite as often, even if he does turn up with a hand and sees that we're check-raising 'light'.
100 PLO: Is this really a jam? Quote
02-18-2010 , 12:29 AM
^^ this is really interesting
i guess we have to train our eyes to situations/flops like this
i guess i was folding too light until now?
100 PLO: Is this really a jam? Quote
02-18-2010 , 12:40 AM
Well, I mean, the thoughts 'pair + fd + straight draw vs active 3bettor who c-bets too much with good stacks for c/ring' should be going through your mind, having done all the above groundwork between sessions, leading you to the conclusion that this is indeed a check-shove.
100 PLO: Is this really a jam? Quote
02-18-2010 , 06:16 AM
Given his stats he's going to cbet this board 100% of the time regardless of what he has so well played if you CRAI.
100 PLO: Is this really a jam? Quote
02-18-2010 , 06:47 AM
Very interesting. In a 3 bet pot i am personally checking behind with JKT* and 9TJ* (obv no diamonds) and feel it's correct to do so. Obv if you have a villain bet/calling with these hands then it makes shoving a much more profitable situation than it might be against someone with a more balanced range.
100 PLO: Is this really a jam? Quote
02-18-2010 , 10:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pg9
^^ this is really interesting
i guess we have to train our eyes to situations/flops like this
i guess i was folding too light until now?
I must be playing too lose b/c I thought this was a super obvious turbo jam.
100 PLO: Is this really a jam? Quote
02-18-2010 , 04:52 PM
Thanks Wazz. Yeah I got a little lazy with that sim, I was just stunned by the results even against a skewed range; thanks for clearing that up. I'm just amazed everyday at how many situations end up being a jam. Freakin' Omaha.
100 PLO: Is this really a jam? Quote

      
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