your "point" is that you "know" button has to put you on exactly AA/KK preflop b/c what else would you 3-bet "knowing" that crazy player is going to 4-bet shove. Then on the flop you're saying you "know" opponent doesn't have KK because he would have isolated the crazy himself. Then you're saying you "know" opp should believe that you wouldn't shove AA on this flop, so you must have KK, and therefore he must fold a set -- How could you have missed it? And in addition to my more straightforward reasons why I think you shouldn't bluff and your opponent shouldn't fold, I'm also saying that your certainty of all these things is misplaced, and that even little bits of doubt, whether about your particular assumptions or your knowledge of the same, quickly multiply to make your nifty play collapse like a house of cards.

obv but note effective stacks. As for the hand, I think you've read the situation well (that he cannot have KKK/wrap here), but I'd have to be close to certain that he can make a big laydown to make shoving here good. I know that most players in his spot will relectantly stick it in even if they think they are usually beat with middle set here.

i would bet 300 on the flop, and i dont think its close

if the button takes the pot/repot to the face, well...you get to play a massive pot with the best hand? regardless if it's AA, a run. w/e. I mean you get to make it like 2700 pre when this happens. I don't really think this is a bad spot? it almost makes me want to try and make flips for 900 with like a 100 dead as long as you beat (nearly) 4 randoms

id bet like 180 on flop

it seems wierd that everyone advocates not to shove AA because hes never going to fold but decide to take another line with KK? wtf

Also I think its more interesting what we should do here with 33xx

i think checking flop to let the co ship alot and alot anyway then we get too see what the other villian does.

I think leading for under half of COs stack would be much more beneficial to what OP is trying to represent than just checking it. It also would give us more information on the strength of his hand if he decides to call or reraise.

i just realized something--on the flop, you bet, cutoff called, and button reraised small for value (as you perceived it). i don't think people ever go from reraising small for value to folding unless you bet turn and river too. the only problem is, with a flop 3 bet, he wouldn't fold cause nobody ever goes from reraising for value to folding, and after your 3 bet both you and villain would have not too much left in your stacks compared to the size of the pot, so pot odds alone then would prevent him from folding, even once he suspected he was beat.

This thread's ******ed. If the stakes were 1/2 instead of 10/20, I set the O/U on number of posts at 10. Trying to get someone off a set in a 3-bet pot when you only have 2 outs when behind is just really really bad. Not sometimes if the assumptions are right, it's just always bad. There are so many better spots you can find for an "air move". If your image is tight enough that there's any chance of this move working, you should try to exploit some more of those good situations.

I may try to bluff here but definitely not to get someone to fold a set. If he was going to fold a set here I don't think he would be the type to be in a 3 bet pot with 66 in the first place.

haha - i don't think it's the stakes that made the thread so long. it's that i kept arguing with people.

anyway i think any discussion is good discussion and even if the hand is "******ed" i actually got some good stuff from many of the replies - even the ones i seemed to disagree with. i especially think the "how would you play kk in this spot" stuff was pretty revealing and should cause some people to think a litlle more deeply about things.

in the end i obviously agreed with most of you because i folded, i just wanted to play devils advocate.

thanks again for the replies everyone.

I am the DEVILS advocate--just look at my image.

Boy i think that's hoping for a lot to hope that someone will muck 666 here. honestly...i think it's too ambitious to think that u can bluff someone off that...unless that player is super tight..in which case..they are unlikely to make the big raise in the first place.

Also -- what did the Button have? if he had a set here...either KKK, 666 or 333 --- what would u think of him just calling the flop and bet/raising a non-ace turn?

Personally, I used to only 3 bet with AAxx a long time ago.. But now I will almost never do this with KKxx unless it's like KKxx double suited...

I like sometimes 3 betting here with hands like 9s 8s 7d 6d..... to mix it up...

and to make ur 3 bet much less predictable.

Why?

Because the bad shorstack only has $600 left.

I think I'd probably fold 666 if you jam fwiw, it's going to be pretty hard to think of a hand that jams and isn't KKK, maybe AA45 with 1 or 2 bfds or something, but basically dunno if its a fold anyone would make during the actual hand

If you know the other guy is 'good-weak', and he thinks you're tight-solid, you might be able to get him to lay K6 or 666 here, but I would only repot all-in here, forget clicking it back.

On the flop, I'd either bet $300 or the full $880, $300 honestly looks scarier and getting an overcall must mean a draw from a good player. Well, 90% of the time.

This doesnt make sense to me. If the ****** psycho is opening and then 4betting with 2458, and the whole table knows this, then you should be 3betting him with hands that are ahead of his range. Since his range is huge, your 3bet range should be much wider than AA/KK, and other good player in the hand should know this and put you on that range.

End of day trying to push people off strong hands by repping one specific hand within your range that is not even the most likely hand in your range is in gen'l bad idea, imho.

-g