Quote:
Originally Posted by F_Ivanovic
Fold pre. Unsuited hands are garbage - even more so when they're low semi- rundowns. Triply more so when you're in the worst position of the table by far. First to act in SB because of BTN straddle with several still to act - even if you come from NLH surely you know how terrible this is? Hand selection here should be insanely tight.
Now you get to find out why it's bad because you're in a spot where you have the nuts but there are 2 flush draws out there and you could be getting free-rolled.
Anyway, flop you should just jam. Not too likely you're being free-rolled at this point and there's so much in the pot that you can just happily GII. OTT I think you have no choice but to GII either given the description of the game. Sucks that you might be getting free-rolled but SPR is too shallow to care that much.
This.
Also, 7
can't be in your hand and on the board so I assume you probably have like the 9
and 7
or some other such rainbow hand.
On the turn, let's say you jam and the other two fold I think you probably get a result like this:
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 Professional)
Omaha Hi, Generic syntax
Board - 8c5h7hJc
PLAYER_1 9sTh6d7c
PLAYER_2 QJT9,JT98,T987,9876,T986, T976, JxJy[8y+][6x+], Acchh, Ahhcc
51560 trials (exhaustive)
All-in Equity
| Equity % | Wins Hi % | Ties Hi % | Wins Hi Count | Ties Hi Count | |
---|
9sTh6d7c | 55.2356% | 41.5962% | 27.2789% | 21447 | 14065 | |
QJT9,JT98,T987,9876,... | 44.7644% | 31.1249% | 27.2789% | 16048 | 14065 | |
Final pot will be $1700 and after some simplifications of the EV equation we get:
EV = 0.416*1700 + 0.273*(0.5*400+650) - 650
EV = +289.25
Let's keep the villain at the same range, and add another opponent who comes along with an Ace high flush and let's say they have you exactly covered.
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 Professional)
Omaha Hi, Generic syntax
Board - 8c5h7hJc
PLAYER_1 9sTh6d7c
PLAYER_2 QJT9,JT98,T987,9876,T986, T976, JxJy[8y+][6x+], Acchh, Ahhcc
PLAYER_3 Acchh, Ahhcc
600000 trials (randomized)
All-in Equity
| Equity % | Wins Hi % | Ties Hi % | Wins Hi Count | Ties Hi Count | |
---|
9sTh6d7c | 40.8030% | 26.5095% | 28.7857% | 159057 | 172714 | |
QJT9,JT98,T987,9876,... | 26.6046% | 12.8792% | 27.6495% | 77275 | 165897 | |
Acchh, Ahhcc | 32.5925% | 31.7863% | 1.8110% | 190718 | 10866 | |
Again, after some simplifications we can find:
EV = (400 + 3*650) (0.265+0.2878/2) - 650
EV = +310.9
You'd have to tighten up the villains range significantly to consider a fold here. Let's do that
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 Professional)
Omaha Hi, Generic syntax
Board - 8c5h7hJc
PLAYER_1 9sTh6d7c
PLAYER_2 QJT9,JT98,T987,T986, T976, JxJy[8y+][6x+], Ac[2c+][Qh+][8h+], Ah[2h+][Qc+][8c+]
600000 trials (randomized)
All-in Equity
| Equity % | Wins Hi % | Ties Hi % | Wins Hi Count | Ties Hi Count | |
---|
9sTh6d7c | 50.8812% | 26.1490% | 49.4643% | 156894 | 296786 | |
QJT9,JT98,T987,T986,... | 49.1188% | 24.3867% | 49.4643% | 146320 | 296786 | |
How often does PLAYER_2 have a four flush by the turn = 58.7383%
EV = +214.9
And if we say villain never has a set here then it's still +158. Finally, if we give villain only the aforementioned straight wrap'ish hands so that we NEVER win outright we finally drop to +82. In this scenario, he is never pure bluffing a flush draw or the double flush draws nor does he have a set, only a made nut straight with possible free rolls.
I feel like this is a high EV high variance situation, which is the beauty of Omaha.
Last edited by MarkD; 06-29-2023 at 04:26 PM.