Vilain here is a new reg at 1/2... He definitively like to spazz out when u give him rope and he thinks he has fold equity. Like c/r AI on the turn with blockers against weak looking bets, he has done that a few times already I noticed.

Now I know some of u will say pot it, but I really felt he wasn't very big on the flop, no 2p etc, so his hand looks really like a draw of some kind to me and now he might decide to c/r AI with 7T, or a hand like 98JT, thinking he has some kind of fold equity. On the river all draws got there so I dunno...

1) Anyone calls here or is this a turbo muck ?

2) In general against a more str8 forward type of reg, I would close to pot the turn, so on the river let's say the reg ship his remaining 85$ into 240 (since we would have potted the turn in that scenario), easy call there?


Grabbed by Holdem Manager
PL Omaha $2(BB) Replayer
SB ($225)
BB ($206)
UTG ($232)
Hero ($1,118)
CO ($205)
BTN ($204)

Dealt to Hero Q 4 J T

fold, Hero raises to $7, fold, BTN calls $7, SB calls $6, BB calls $5

FLOP ($28) 9 A 8

SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $26.60, BTN folds, SB folds, BB calls $26.60

TURN ($81.20) 9 A 8 J

BB checks, Hero bets $37, BB calls $37

RIVER ($155) 9 A 8 J 2

BB bets $135 (AI), Hero ?

i think he's shoving any flush here fwiw because your line looks a lot like a set or top 2 to him.

but do u think he's check calling with 7high flush draw or worse 2 streets?
because villan's hand looks like exactly flush draw.

i think vil has exactly higher flush too often to call that.

2) if u potted turn and he still donks the river, welll, id say "wtf you?" and call. if we have no reads.

Think you have to call here both because you have a strong hand that beats some of his shoving range, and because your hearts are blockers to many likely flushes. And I don't think your hand looks like a flush in the slightest. Not exactly a fist pump but you'll be good here at least a third of the time, which is all you need. There are certain calls that you need to make, knowing you'll lose 2/3 of the time.

based on your description i think i know what player this is, but i don't see any hand they are c/c turn shoving that river with except flush. he's not vbetting any worse because he wouldve shoved turn. if he was floating you on two streets with air or Kh blocker so he could chase a heart to bluff you with despite every draw getting there by the river i'd say more power to him. you're just left deciding whether he was chasing inferior flushes, which needs to be > 31% of the time and i don't think it is. then again i don't think the frequency could be much worse than say 15% because he could have 7654ish type of hand with hearts and feel priced in by your turn bet. i am also working under the assumption he has hearts 100% of the time which i guess is not true. in closing i think fold is slightly > call in a one-off hand EV vacuum but don't think it'd be much of a mistake calling for info or for image reasons and such. i do think you could've sized turn bet bigger while still being able to induce spazz shove, and i don't think he's folding T7.

I dunno, your turn bet sizing makes it really funky, b/c his range is wider than if you had bet a normal amount. I suppose he could be turning a v weak hand like JTxx into a bluff, but it's v awkward. A lot of hands in his range are flushdraws though, and I don't see many regs open shoving the riv for value w/ 7 high flushes after taking this line. All of the 2p hands in his range I can't really see a reg turning into a bluff, so I just muck.

dont have to pot it but I prefer at least 45+ on the turn. I think you should fold river, the only reasonable draw that he c/c turn instead of c/r is a high flush draw so your hand is basicly a bluff catcher and I doubt he outright bluffing (with bare Kh for ex) or is turning a made hand into a bluff (or even have many made hands that often with prior action) here that often.

dunno what's up with my message... i wrote more and looks like half the words missing.
1. i fold river
2. i call river

So if he is going to c/r the turn with any decent equity and percieved fold equity he will definitely be cring nut flush draw with a pair or gutter a fair amount right? And probably 2nd nut flush draw with a gutter or w/e.

I think that makes the river a call.

This is pretty LOL bad, especially the 1st sentence.
Which flush do you expect him to have when you call? and whats his other two cards when he has 67hh or other 3 with the 9h?
BTW there aren't any made turn hands he needs to turn into a bluff on the river and if he was going to bluff turn is the place given description.

or hands that inclde 67hh or 9h? which leaves?

I dunno but I really feel most vilains who likes to spazz, are going to c/r flop with most baby flush because they should have connected with the board pretty heavily. Most flush ranging from 5h to 9h probably are 2 pair+fd, top pair +fd + oesd, oesd + fd so I bet he is going to c/r a lot of them on the flop. Given that I also think that vilain's range is either pure bluff here with maybe the Kh blocker, some JT type of hand or the nuts. He should almost never has a baby flush here, he might be stupid enough to still push it but I dunno yet.

I agree thats my point , he has us beat or air and I can't see what air hands get to the river.

With the bet size I made on the turn I'm pretty sure he could have something like JTxx and stuff like that for sure, Thinking he has "odds" to call vs AAxx. He knows I can play AA or top 2 exactly like that. On the river he could definitively see there an opportunity to make me lay down, which I would. I am not quite sure he would do that the right amount of time but he is def capable of it. I think it might be closer than u think

I actually had a very similar hand today..actually nearly identical...I called and the villain showed a bluff.

1)
I would probably call here as it looks like you're afraid of the board with a top set type of hand.

2)
You have to call.

I disagree. It's important that our hand is underrepped on the river, and that we have blockers to a lot of his flush draw range. And from a game theory perspective we need to call this river a proportion of the time with some hands that are bluff-catchers. You should at least consider a call on this river with a straight. A good randomiser on this is to call when you actually have a flush.

You're missing the point of my post somewhat. I expect him to have a k-high or q-high flush a decent amount, but could also have a lower one. But we're not really hoping he has a flush here.

As for his side cards, there are a zillion straight draw / idiot straight / pair + straight draw / 2 pair combos possible that he could be tagging along with. But I'd expect to see a straight or 2 pair turned into a bluff a decent amount of the time, both from the description of villain in the OP and the fact that given our blockers, these combinatorically make up the majority of his range after the turn.
People do and should turn marginal hands into bluffs when scare cards hit - it's a fact. If we're folding anything but the nuts here, he should be shoving almost his entire range, although he might want to bet smaller with the nuts to be more likely to get a call. As for bluffing the turn, this doesn't seem like a very good turn to bluff vs hero's betting range.

Definitely a close spot though and it's not a clear fold like some seem to be making out.

if we're affraid of the board do we really betting small on the turn to fold to chk/rais? looks strange to me... i either chk back or bet-call.

and yea, you will obviouselly see bluff there sometimes, but as played i can't see any hand he's bluffing with.

and i also think that when we bet smaller on the turn it looks exactly like we have something strong with flush draw or bluffing(total air).
we're not affraid not only to see 3rd card for flush on the river but also to call turn c/r all in.

i fold there if not tilted.

Really hate your turn bet sizing. Like wow, what were you thinking? You don't beat any of his value range, but he could be turning two pair or a set into a bluff especially if he has the bare King. Meh though, bet more on the turn, I have no idea how people are going to react to that.

so? mig, what did u do on the river?