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11-26-2014 , 06:10 PM

#11201

Dominic

Tripod

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 75,322

Today on the radio, some point spread touter said he can't go with Detroit tomorrow because the Lions are something like 1-10-1 against the spread in their last 12 Thanksgiving games.

..,So?

Isn't that like betting on red because black has hit 7 times in a row?

Quote

11-26-2014 , 06:21 PM

#11202

W0X0F

sit back, relax, and enjoy the flight

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 5,853

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dominic

Yes it is.

Quote

11-26-2014 , 06:42 PM

#11203

Bremen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 15,799

No.

We can be reasonably certain that red/black are equally likely.

With sports lines there is always the chance there is some systemic bias affecting the line.

Whether 12 games is enough of a sample size I have no idea (you'd have to know the probability of the line being off and by how much).

Quote

11-26-2014 , 06:49 PM

#11204

W0X0F

sit back, relax, and enjoy the flight

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 5,853

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bremen

In much the same way, you could say that if red comes up 11 times in a row there could be a bias in the wheel. But we assume a fair wheel for this comparison, and there's really nothing except the time of year that could conceivably have any effect on the game. I think any reasonable person would that this is as case of drawing an invalid inference from the data.

Quote

11-26-2014 , 07:01 PM

#11205

Bremen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 15,799

Quote:

Originally Posted by W0X0F

Right, I missed that he was talking about just Thanksgiving games. It would be a bit stronger if it was every game this season or something. But an essentially random collection of games over 12 years...

Quote

11-27-2014 , 02:46 AM

#11206

Bighurt52235

I was born to eat hamburgers

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 24,130

Also the fact that its a whole new collection of Lions from ten years ago. No effect on tomorrow's game.

Quote

11-27-2014 , 03:01 AM

#11207

Anais

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 6,663

Quote:

Originally Posted by CCuster_911

Resting your finger over the trigger on a gun when you are not about to shoot. You should be like this:

He is saying he carries a gun so he know the importance of gun safety, but doesn't like when people get riled up with it over the internet when they see a pic/video of someone lacking trigger discipline, even though he can understand the point they are making and they are right in that everyone should practice gun safety.

I wonder if he heard the story about a girl in ferguson accidentally killing herself when she was waving a newly-purchased, loaded gun around the car she was riding in, causing her boyfriend to duck out of the way of the gun, which, since he was driving, caused a wreck, which made the gun fire (I assume her finger was on the trigger), and the bullet went thru her head?

Quote

11-27-2014 , 12:10 PM

#11208

problemeliminator

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 9,467

By "he" do you mean me? Yes, I'm aware.

Anais' avatar really pisses me off.

Quote

11-27-2014 , 01:59 PM

#11209

Coasterbrad

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 2,712

Re Lions on Thanksgiving:
But what if it is a team tradition to have a big thanksgiving dinner the night before and everyone is stuffed and not felling 100% at game time? Or maybe team tradition to not practice the day before the holiday.

It's not exactly like the roulette scenario because in theory there could be some circumstance that causes this team in particular to perform poorly in Thanksgiving day games. Unlikely but certainly possible.

Quote

11-27-2014 , 02:26 PM

#11210

W0X0F

sit back, relax, and enjoy the flight

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 5,853

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coasterbrad

Of course there "could be," but that's a far cry from "probably is." Here's the test: if you want to believe that the 1-10-1 record is statistically representative, then you should jump at the chance to bet on the game, giving me 4-to-1 odds right? After all, my chance of winning is just one in 12. Your chance is 10 in 12. Want to give me those odds?

Quote

11-27-2014 , 02:29 PM

#11211

Coasterbrad

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 2,712

Hahaha I never said I would bet on it. I agree with you completely that it's a b.s. stat. People eat those stupid stats up. I was just playing devil's advocate against the roulette analogy.

Quote

11-27-2014 , 05:40 PM

#11212

Didace

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 20,403

Betting against the spread is pretty much like roulette.

Quote

11-27-2014 , 06:02 PM

#11213

samuri8

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 1,747

Quote:

Originally Posted by Didace

Betting against the spread is pretty much like roulette.

In NFL that's probably not too far from the truth.

Quote

11-27-2014 , 06:37 PM

#11214

El Diablo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 68,145

Dom,

It could be reasonable if that's a game where the betting action is always heavy Detroit regardless of the line.

Quote

11-27-2014 , 08:06 PM

#11215

RunDownHouse.

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 2,557

Whatever happened to najdorfdefense? This is the perfect chance for him to chime in with some horrrrrrible gambling advice.

Quote

11-27-2014 , 10:11 PM

#11216

W0X0F

sit back, relax, and enjoy the flight

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 5,853

People beginning their response to a question with "So, ..." I see this a lot on talk shows. Not sure where this verbal affectation began.

Shouldn't bother me, but it does.

Quote

11-27-2014 , 11:46 PM

#11217

cicakman

banned

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 9,229

When people text and add a ? or . at the end

Quote

11-28-2014 , 12:59 AM

#11218

Bighurt52235

I was born to eat hamburgers

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 24,130

Quote:

Originally Posted by cicakman

When people text and add a ? or . at the end

It bothers you when someone puts a question mark at the end of a question?

Quote

11-28-2014 , 01:45 AM

#11219

Didace

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 20,403

Quote:

Originally Posted by cicakman

When people text and add a ? or . at the end

I know, right? Plus those guys that spell properly really burn me, too.

Quote

11-28-2014 , 03:19 AM

#11220

Bremen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 15,799

Quote:

Originally Posted by Didace

I know, right? Plus those guys that spell properly really burn me, too.

My mother, a librarian, says things like "R U ..." when she texts me. It really annoys me.

Quote

11-28-2014 , 03:25 AM

#11221

Banned4lyfe

Sup-Bah? Pop-Bah Pooh-Bear Permanently Pooh-Bah Billy Walters Jr

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 11,808

You have a problem with people asking you a question

Quote

11-28-2014 , 03:35 AM

#11222

lonely_but_rich

ɔarpal \ʇunnel

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 23,423

That's suppose to be funny

Quote

11-28-2014 , 05:05 AM

#11223

fuluck414

veteran

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 2,971

I hate when people text me and don't correctly spell words. It's really not that hard.

Quote

11-28-2014 , 08:25 AM

#11224

sickofants

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,801

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swwiinn

A few things I've noticed in England since I've been here that were quite annoying but I've learnt to just roll with it now.

'Seems' instead of 'since'
Ex: We should do that tomorrow seems I've got the day off.

'Us' instead of 'me'
Ex: I don't think they like us because they didn't say hello.

'While' instead of 'until'
Ex: I work 9 while 5 tomorrow.

Still slightly tilting depending on what mood I'm in, but I mostly just find it funny now.

Oh also, 'what' instead of 'that'
Ex: It was him what said it in the first place.

That one still drives me mad no matter what mood I'm in.

You're talking to people from Yorkshire.

"Us" instead of "me" is common in other regions of the North of England, but "while" instead of "until" I believe is unique to Yorkshire. I never knew this was weird until I went to university in Newcastle (also in the North of England).

"What" instead of "that" I don't believe is a regional thing. I don't know where it comes from but it seems a more modern usage. I agree it sounds slack.

"Seems" instead of "since". Is that a real thing??

Quote

11-28-2014 , 08:58 AM

#11225

sickofants

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,801

It really bugs me that when a number of youtubes were posted in objection to Christmas songs pissing somebody off, by far the best Christmas song wasn't included.

Quote

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