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03-19-2015 , 08:03 AM

#30951

thebayareabeast 7

banned

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 847

Tried emailing and pming him again.

Hopefully he doesnt pretend to not receive my messages for much longer.

03-19-2015 , 08:19 AM

#30952

thebayareabeast 7

banned

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 847

Quote:

Originally Posted by gregorio

I'd be shocked if he doesn't follow through and pay/reimburse you, unless he decides not to after you called him an *******.

I wasnt calling him anything btw.

03-19-2015 , 08:33 AM

#30953

mullen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 17,558

Babs,

You explicitly called him a jackass and an imbecile.

Can you address the fact that you cannot get a loan despite owning a home and (3) cars?

03-19-2015 , 08:40 AM

#30954

thebayareabeast 7

banned

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 847

Come to think of it Im sure I could just not sure about within 24 hours.

By the way I only own 2 cars now.

03-19-2015 , 08:49 AM

#30955

GREEAR10

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 70,909

Damn beast, what happened to your 3rd car man? Telling people you own 2 cars instead of 3 makes you look much worse.

03-19-2015 , 08:52 AM

#30956

GREEAR10

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 70,909

To be honest I wouldn't of even shared that with us. I think less of you, I didn't think that was possible.

03-19-2015 , 09:02 AM

#30957

Snoopy5

banned

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 982

Quote:

Originally Posted by thebayareabeast 7

I wasnt calling him anything btw.

Quote:

Originally Posted by thebayareabeast 7

Tried emailing and pming him again.
Hopefully he doesnt pretend to not receive my messages for much longer.

Quote:

Originally Posted by thebayareabeast 7

Which is fine. All I am saying is let me ****ing know so I can cancel it. Its now too late to cancel.

Quote:

Originally Posted by thebayareabeast 7

Its pretty obvious that the guy just realized one day paying for a strangers counseling appointment was a questionable maneuver and decided to try to escape.

Quote:

Originally Posted by thebayareabeast 7

Not sure what language Im speaking.

Payment is due at the time of appointment.

03-19-2015 , 09:23 AM

#30958

thebayareabeast 7

banned

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 847

BAHAHAHAHAHAHA

03-19-2015 , 11:45 AM

#30959

Saklad

Best handicapper in OOT

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 4,633

Meh

03-19-2015 , 11:52 AM

#30960

Alobar

Born Ready

Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 40,926

I love how its soups fault that you didnt cancel it in time, lol. Its also his fault that it took you months to get around to doing it, and he has a life and isnt waiting on the internet for you to finally tell him you took care of your end.

I have zero doubt he would make good on the money once he gets back around to getting on the internet.

Im sure your dad would lend you $200 given that its for therapy and you are trying to improve yourself. I mean he just put 5 figs down on a house for you, he obviously wants to see you do well.

03-19-2015 , 11:56 AM

#30961

El Diablo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 68,145

Hunchers,

Looks like we don't have enough for round 1, but let's do a round 2 contest with Alobar's idea. Round 2 is better anyway - more random lucksack win possibility in round 1.

8 Round 2 picks, you get x pts where x = seed of your pick.

I'm also now curious as to what the average number of pts is for each seed in the last ten years.

I'd guess maybe 5 or 6 seed is the highest EV pick for round 1? Or do they lose enough that 3 or 4 would be better? I was just gonna pick the 12s and 14s if we had done round 1 today.

03-19-2015 , 11:58 AM

#30962

El Diablo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 68,145

Alobar,

I think Soup 100% would have paid when he saw it. However, I think there's a small chance he might not now after being insulted by babs like that. But even after that, I suspect he'd still feel obligated to pay it.

03-19-2015 , 12:04 PM

#30963

mullen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 17,558

Quote:

Originally Posted by El Diablo

Nah. Highest EV for round 1 is basically pick all the 8/9 favorites and then the best 10/11 seeds. Some of them are favorites (ex UT and OSU)

Even if a 9 seed is a flip that's 4.5 EV. there's no 5 seeds that are 90% to win.

OSU a 10 seed is a 3.5 pt fav so that's 6+ pts in EV.

03-19-2015 , 12:22 PM

#30964

El Diablo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 68,145

Mullen,

You can't pick the 8/9 favorite in this, though, you need to pick either 8s or 9s. If you could pick favorites it's a whole different question.

So if 8s are 55% that's 4.4. So 6s would need to be about 75% to be better.

That's the question here... I'm sure the answer is easy to find out, it just didn't pop to the top when I googled "ncaa march madness first round win percentage by seed" but I bet someone has posted that info.

03-19-2015 , 12:26 PM

#30965

StoneColdTex

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 1,956

Quote:

Originally Posted by El Diablo

I already made my picks... I have you guys crushed. I can see why you would want to wait till round 2 now.

03-19-2015 , 12:58 PM

#30966

mullen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 17,558

Quote:

Originally Posted by El Diablo

Oh I didn't realize you had to pick seeds and not individual games. I still think some combo of 8/9/10 is optimal. I don't think any 6s have a 75% win expectancy.

03-19-2015 , 01:03 PM

#30967

El Diablo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 68,145

Mullen,

The contest is to pick individual games. Are you in?

The question I was posing was if you were to just pick seeds without doing any analysis, what's the highest EV there?

03-19-2015 , 01:09 PM

#30968

Alobar

Born Ready

Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 40,926

Quote:

Originally Posted by El Diablo

I dunno, soup seems like a really charitable guy, and not the kind of guy who when trying to help a wild animal out of a trap, gets mad at it when it bites him.

03-19-2015 , 01:10 PM

#30969

mullen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 17,558

Yeah, I'm in for the 2nd round.

I think 8 seed and 11 seed would be optimal for just picking seeds. But 7 and 10 would be worth a look too. I'd just look at the moneylines or whatever and add up the win % probabilities multiplied by seeds.

03-19-2015 , 02:22 PM

#30970

StoneColdTex

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 1,956

Well given RD1 has started, so we officially can't play RD1, I'll post my pics

Team - Seed
IND - 10
BUT - 6
ORG - 8
UNI - 5
UNC - 4
OSU - 10
SDSU - 8
IOWA - 7

03-19-2015 , 02:54 PM

#30971

mullen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 17,558

Mine was

Valpo 13
Texas 11
Ohio St. 10
NC st 8
SDSU 8
Cincy 8
Wich St 7
Oregon 8

03-19-2015 , 03:08 PM

#30972

thebayareabeast 7

banned

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 847

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alobar

SOup and I have been in contact for literally weeks about this, and he either never did it or is not contacting me to confirm.

03-19-2015 , 03:09 PM

#30973

thebayareabeast 7

banned

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 847

The appointment is at 1:20 tomorrow. I can still cancel because its within 24 hours.

Should I just cancel?

03-19-2015 , 03:12 PM

#30974

SGT RJ

Twitching

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 48,792

Babs, I find it difficult to believe that Soup's failure to respond isn't because of some type of real life stuff and has absolutely zero to do with withdrawing from his generous offer.

Just go to the damn appointment confident that you will be reimbursed for the cost.