This is a tough one because everyone's tastes are so different, but I'll throw out a few standards that we always used.

1.5 eggs per person per day. If possible buy unrefrigerated eggs (and then refrigerate as space opens up. Plus just flip the carton over once per week). I've never had any problem with eggs even at 58 days old.

Large blocks of cheese.They last a long time.

1/2 package cookies per person per day.

1/2 package of salty snacks per person per day.

1 piece of fresh fruit per person per day. Apples can last 2 months no problem.

Lots & lots of onions. Potatoes

Bread. As much as our limited freezer storage would hold.

1/2 can of vegetables per person per day. Frozen is much better but we always had limited freezer space.

1 cup of pasta or rice per person per day.

Lots of spices and condiments.

Tortillas are great because they last forever.

Lot's of easy to make packaged mixes like brownies, muffins, or whatever that only require an egg and water to have a fresh baked treat.

You can get boxed milk that will last for like a year (unopened) stored at room temp.

Lot's of booze. If you drink regularly/socially you'll under provision for sure. Booze last forever so it's like overstocking toilet paper in that you'll use it eventually. If **** ever really hits the fan it'll be way more valuable than tp.

We never provisioned meat because we had unlimited fish. I do remember a passage across the Atlantic that took nearly twice as long as expected. Near the end my brother and I were splitting 1 cup of rice, 1 can of baked beans, and 1 can of creamed corn per day + all the fish you could eat.

It's important "hide" some good stuff so you're not left eating creamed corn, rice, and beans late in the game when spirits are already low.

The thing that the people claiming fat Americans won't starve for a month or two are missing is that this isn't about not starving. This is about living decent to help minimize the inevitable depression that will happen if you're stuck in your home for weeks at a time. Comfort food will be important for your mental health. Whatever your families favorite meals are make sure you provision for a couple of them per week for as long as you think necessary. On the boat fish tacos were always the favorite meal and it was a weekly event that was looked forward to and lifted spirits. Your family has a few favorite meals and meals that are "events". I'd plan for at least two of those per week for however long you think necessary.

For those people with 200lb of rice and 1000 rolls of toiler paper, you won;t starve but you'll want to die long before you run out of food.

Privacy is another really tough but important aspect of being cooped up in a tiny space for long periods. Good luck with that.

Not sure if anything has changed because I've heard so many different things but it seems orange county is now on lockdown outside of essential businesses. ****ing ouch. I still doubt there wont be complete panic when it comes to food and supplies.

Reading the popular Jeremy Young twitter thread that summarizes, I really hope this can be disproven fairly quickly because it almost sounds like game over. There is no way even a small amount of society will agree to isolation for the better part of 18 months. And that assumes first vac attempts end up successful.

Godspeed to everyone. Nothing feels as good in the soul I don't think than support, respect, compassion, community, connection. If 5% of the population is going to need a respirator, the human being in us needs to come out.

every year people would go to LL Bean, load up on camping gear, use it at the phish concert and then return it full refund no questions asked despite it being coated in mud, stale beer and patchouli oil

No other source of news has made me more fearful than this thread.

10 days ago I was commenting itt that my parents and elderly grandparents were still intending on traveling to see me and my 2 month old son; PA - CA. They canceled a week ago. Now a plan like that sounds insane.

I'm not scared of the virus but I am scared of the idea that the world will not look the same for the foreseeable future.

I talked my wife out of getting her nails done today. Conversely, I plan on going to stock up on ammunition tomorrow morning and buying another gun.

The world seems so bizarre to me and I have no choice but to focus on my family's survival. I hope that I'm just paranoid but you all are starting to convince me that I'm acting rationally.

last two years have been bumper years for influenza

i don't know if that's correlated but we've also done post mortem testing on people we believed had influenza and they tested positive

unknown how many have been misdiagnosed and for how long

Anyone else furiously clicking buttons on Amazon?

I feel similarly, Mark. First world event Ive ever "bought into".

A few causes for potential optimism - the report doesn't consider a summer pause - which often happens with these kinds of viruses. The summer killed SARS. The Spanish Flu paused then mutated and came back much worse.

Also it doesn't really get into improved suppression strategies. It kind of assumes the same spread as in the beginning when we knew much less and had less examples of what works (S. Korea, Japan, China).

From everything I've been reading - the countries where everyone wears a mask (not just symptomatic people) are doing a lot better. China requires masks. Czechoslovakia is requiring them. In Japan, which seems to be doing inexplicably well right now, everyone is wearing them. But you also have to keep infected people who live in large households from infecting everyone in the house - that's been by far the biggest source of spread. Masks don't work for that - only isolation.

IMO we should try a combination of masks, all the other social distancing stuff, and pervasive testing (then don't send positives home to infect their households). Maybe we can keep the R number below 1 w/o full lock down if we do that.

Just my personal guess but I could see restaurants opening back up with lots of room between patrons - no more of those hipster places where you're like 6" from the table next to you. Bars however may have to stay closed for the duration. Drunks hanging out for 6 hours sharing the same space getting progressively more touchy feely. Disaster.

Report from Japan today:

I really hope a bunch of smart people are studying Japan right now.

I've always kept absolute essentials on hand so that my wife and I could survive in a catastrophe (go-bags, >100lbs of food, shotgun shells) but this feels like I didn't do enough and that all my "prepping" was so minimal.

My wife thinks I'm going overboard. However, she has the luxury of being married to a man that worries about these things.

out in the front lines we're microwaving, putting under UV light (light to dry your nails faster when you get your nails done) or spraying down with disinfectant and allowing to dry

i personally have a 2 mask rotation where upon coming come and getting sprayed down i also spray the mask and then let it dry and use the other one next time which should be dry

it's not ideal - but there just aren't the supplies to dispose of them

main issue is just don't use them while damp, that's when they lose efficacy

good luck

Inventory done:
4491g protein
4484g fat
5691g carb
79393 calories

So about 35-40 days worth of food. Not bad, but I think I'll need more, especially veggies. I have plenty of space for more food so I think I'll make a run tomorrow.

I guffawed loudly - but bear in mind I am extremely bored in my bunker.

Well that's about 1/2 the UK ****ed then

Juk

You could also look into spraying them with salty water:

https://www.nature.com/articles/srep39956

That's quite an old paper, but if you search Google there is some more recent stuff related to the current pandemic (good thread on Reddit IIRC, suggesting pulling them apart and spraying the middle layer, etc).

Juk

I went to the store yesterday, got what I wanted but there were zero paper products, no PB, tuna, butter, very little bread. Chatted with the poor lady at checkout. People have gone insane LDO. Don't be one of them. Please, stay calm and rational. We'll all be much better off that way.

Yeah doh, 20000 was the calories for cooked rice

Juk

is it juk like duke or juk like chuck?

That is silly. If everything is on the table, why didn't you post an article saying that it was the same aliens that built the pyramids in Egypt that have us the virus?

That would make approximately the same amount of sense as the article you posted.

Nevada is closed for business.

Duke - I also happen to live in York, hence the name "jukofyork".

Juk

Everyone dies anyway so there's no change there. The correct way to frame this problem is in terms of people losing their lives - in other words losing time - or also losing quality months of their lives. That can take the form of:
- Dying earlier than otherwise due to Coronavirus.
- Surviving but losing a period of quality life due permanent disability.
- Losing their business or house, retiring a year later from work.
- Living as if under house arrest for months.

I don't claim to have all the answers but rather than thinking about whether group X should do something for group Y, a way to start answering these questions would be start doing thought experiments like trying to answer if you would do the following trades:
You have to spend one day at home now and your lifespan is extended by one day.
You have to spend a month at home now and your lifespan is extended by a month
You have to spend a year at home now and your lifespan is extended by a year
You have to spend 3 months at home now and your lifespan is extended by a 3 months, what about if it's only extended by 1 month, or 1 week, or 1 day?
You have to wear a mask on the tram for a year and your life is extended by a day, (or a week or a month)
The pubs, restaurants, sport, most other forms of business etc. are closed for a year and your life is extended by a day, (or a week or a month)
You have to work an extra year before you retire but in return your life is extended by a a day, a week, a month or a year.
After going on holiday you need to schedule an extra two weeks quarantine when you get home - in return your life is extended by a day, a week, a month....

Answers will vary. Obviously if you have no kids and a hot girlfriend, then being locked up with her is going to be a lot more tolerable. I'm fine with some of the trades in the shorter periods, like being at home for a week or two (as I said before, just like Christmas when stuff also shuts down and we have to spend more time with our families). When you start getting to longer periods like 3 months I'm not sure I'd even trade time at a 1:1 ratio, let alone stay at home for a month for a week of life.

For some of the less intrusive things like wearing masks on public transport (and in practice about 99% of people here are just keeping them on in the street too at the moment and you really notice if someone isn't), I'm probably fine continuing like that for a year for even one extra day of life. As for economic collapse causing me to retire a year later - I'd want about 3 months extra life for that too.

Given my own answers - if we're talking about something like a coronavirus death costing maybe an average of 100 months of someone's life - well it's only worth putting the whole country into a 3 month lockdown if doing so would save 3% of the whole population - and nobody is expecting death rates anything like that high (this also ignores that the lockdown also entails the economic collapse with later retirement) or whether such a shutdown would reduce the total deaths by so much.

We're basically pretty much shut down for two weeks here in Slovakia while they try to keep infections low and get ready to fight it, and I think that will be extended right through to Easter. After that there needs to be a serious discussion on how we manage the trade offs - what measures are actually worth continuing and which are not worth continuing. To govern is to choose, people who can't make the hard decisions shouldn't be in the job.

My colleague has a sideline teaching English online and he talked to someone in China who should know (to the extent that if I gave more information there'd be a risk of identifying the specific person) and while there's a limit to what the clients can say online (also applies e.g. to Hong Kong protests) it's basically far from finished over there. Don't believe the numbers from China.

It's questionable whether the threat from criminality/looting etc. is more likely when a lot of people are dying of the disease or when a lot of stuff is shut down and there is no work.

Good luck.

My parents got back to the UK yesterday.

It would? We must've read two different articles....

I can’t see closing down schools for up to 18 months. Even with distance learning, you figure millions of kids would fall behind. Especially those who live in low income areas. I see a lot of school districts planning on a return anywhere from Mar 30 to the end of April. If our hospitals and healthcare facilities hold after we reach peak in a couple weeks, I think you start to roll back some of the lockdown measures. It’s not a even a threat to children...(or most working people).

Maybe you give the kids masks like suzzer is saying.