Yeah I've been watching that stupid chart. My theory/hope is they're fudging it to keep Kemp happy, while still sneaking out the real data.

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/georgia

They're not spiking but they're hanging at about 700-800 new cases 100 new hospitalizations a day for a while. Georgia is my bellwether right now. Now it could be they're fudging the data too and they'll hide a spike. But if they do start to show a spike, you know it's real.

That and the LA test were an absolute joke. You could tell by how it was marketed and subjects were recruited. And it was before there were any accurate antibody tests.

But still neither found anything that crazy. Idiots were touting the #s but it was like ok maybe we're at real cases = 20x confirmed cases rather than 10x confirmed cases. Doesn't make a big difference - still a long long way from herd immunity.

Atlanta is still fairly shut down. Alabama and Mississippi are where I'm looking.

Yeah that's probably good. But to some degree I'm interested in what happens in the non-major-city areas. We can assume major cities will stay somewhat sane. It's the outlying areas where people are packing bars. I'm interested to see if that's enough to spike the numbers. You'd think it would be.

Scary stuff... hope surgery goes well...

Lol, rookie.

Very good article, thanks for sharing.

Does anyone know a single case of a long-term casino or poker dealer who got sick enough from COVID-19 to be hospitalized? If so, how old were they?

very zen

The seven stages of DONK:

shock, denial, anger, bargaining, depression, testing, and acceptance

I am still in denial.

I took an antibody test because I was curious if that weird 3-4 week cold with dry cough that I know I caught in Vegas the first week of Dec. was somehow a weird mild strain of covid.

It wasn't. But I still wonder if maybe it was close enough I have good antibodies which can help.

Was this the Roche test? What was the process like? Presumably you had to send it off to be processed? It's just been approved in the UK so curious to know.

a friend in NYC tested positive for antibodies a couple days ago. her only symptom was a one week long loss of taste/smell a few months ago. early 30s, self quarantined since things started. no fever, no breathing issues, nothing else at all in the way of symptoms.

Ok yeah. If this is what Georgia is going that's pretty smart. I think bars and nightclubs are one of the worst vectors.

Wisconsin may be the one to watch if their bars outside the major cities stay open and packed.

I'm in Green Bay, WI. Much of my FB is just people chomping at the bit to get back out to the bars. The ones that are open are 100% going to be packed, and social distancing "may" be in place at some, but I imagine that's going to evaporate pretty quickly once people start drinking. Additionally, a large portion of people going out have been in the "just a flu" camp for a while.

Currently in Brown County we have 260,000 people, 2000 cases, and 21 deaths. Personally, I think we should have gone another couple weeks to get more information.

At the time though, there was still no good info on Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), and some people were still arguing as high as 4%. The numbers for these tests suggested that IFR was ludicrously low, like less than flu, so yeah they did suggest something crazy.

I mean we still don't know the IFR, but at least the error bars aren't in orders of magnitude anymore. Those poor studies gave some level of credibility to people who were saying that this whole thing is a nothingburger.

For me, even though I didn't accept the small sample size as representative, I used them as one example of the wild variance in estimates to tell people to stop arguing in absolutes when we didn't have enough data. To a certain extent, I stand by that assessment of the state of knowledge at that time. They did, indeed, serve as good example of us not having good data, though not only because of their small sample sizes.

I believe that shingles is chicken pox virus that reactivates. I've been told that stress or lack of sleep or other similar stressors to the immune system can cause this to happen.

It obviously depends on probability. During normal times, my kids trot off to school and have some chance of dying and never coming home. If the chances of them dying of corona don't materially change that baseline probability by much, then as far as I'm concerned, they're still going off to school. Any other answer is superstitious and idiotic IMO.

That article establishes that helper T cells do attack the spike protein which C-19 contains. It suggests that these helper T cells might be related to prior coronavirus (i.e. common cold) infections. It is generally good news on the immunity front, but it expressly did not establish that this crossreactivity reduces symptoms or makes it less likely to die from C-19.

Respectfully, I think you're overreading this article.

Nick posts useful information and mildly overinterprets it. You rag on Nick. Which do you think is more useful?

Bargaining

Relevant
https://www.adn.com/nation-world/202...irus-timeline/

Many people have speculated before about rona being in the US back in Nov-Dec. I was also very sick around that time with similar symptoms and several of my coworkers had pneumonia around then as well. Who knows though.

That wasn't covid. But maybe it boosted our T-cells a little or something. Or maybe not - just an interesting article.

My Dr told me his sister in law who is a travel against , I know I didn’t know they existed still, started noticing lack of flights into Wuhan as early as mid November. There is lots of interesting info floating around like this which isn’t partisan or conspiracy driven.

I guess we shall agree to disagree .i don’t find his misinterpretation of immunity over 6 T2T threads daily very useful.

Italy resuming international and domestic flights on june 3rd

umm i'm calling bullshit on this

wuhan isn't even a top 10 airport for traffic in china and is mostly domestic travel

vast majority of people flying to wuhan would do so through Beijing or Shanghai or some other airport

and then it really begs the question, why are travel agents booking tours to wuhan? it's not even a regular tourist stop, the only thing of note it has going for it is yangtze river cruises and the international tourists doing that usually embark from other locations

there's a very good reason why nobody ever heard of wuhan before this event, because nobody ever goes there while visiting China

essentially, this is like some travel agent in Munich noting how few flights are going to Minnesota, exactly how many Germans are going to Minnesota and of those, how many are flying into the twin cities directly?

i don't think he's lying, but I imagine it's just some mind game where wuhan is her mind now so she's imagining things that previously weren't the case just like everyone now is convinced the last time they got sick pretty badly a year ago it must have been an early form of covid

i forgot the specific term for this phenomena, but our brains lie to us all the time