That’s Weezer, not Pearl Jam

Me and a buddy were planning on going to MSG show fml.

When can they lift them is what I wonder? Do they have to remain on lockdown until a vaccine is ready? Maybe Wuhan has herd immunity by now. But if one person travels to Beijing and it breaks out there - they're in a worse spot, right? Same goes for Italy and say Rome.

I'll limit my use of USA#9 to the Wuhan virus threads, where it is richly deserved because of our foolish bereaucratic testing regimes.

Its mostly about the capacity of the medical system -- scattered outbreaks are not the threat that massive initial upswing was. They already claim that the majority of new cases they see are coming from outside China. There has already been quite a bit of easing of restrictions, but they could very quickly lock down areas again. Businesses have been reopening, but the government gives them lists of people not authorized to return yet (the red/yellow/green system at work). Many organizations are required to temperature scan every employee at the gate and not allow anyone with a fever to enter the building and everyone inside must wear a mask in case they are sick. Again, nobody here is going to do that either.

N.Y. Governor deploys National Guard to New Rochelle which is my old hometown. New Rochelle has a very large population of ethnic Italians and my guess would be that they brought it back after having visited Italy.

Just make it more believable USA#39.

Too many digits. I picked the highest number I could while not making it more difficult to type on my phone.

#USA#9!

I'll agree it really drives home what a crap country this is turning into in regards to actually caring about its citizens. The curtain has defiantly been pulled back.

Aren't you already supposed to be contained for politarding in every ****ing thread you enter?

There is a daily 1/2 hour podcast about the situation in Germany with the head of Virology of Berlin's university hospital, the Charité. He worked already on the last SARS outbreak and really gives some in-dept analysis on certain topics. Some points he made yesterday and today (quotes are translations by Google & me):

- It's important to avoid an overload of the hospitals: "Mortality in
Wuhan is three to four percent. The mortality outside of Wuhan, in the province of Hubei, i.e. around Wuhan, is only 0.7 percent. Why is that? Because the medical system in Wuhan was completely overloaded."

- Old people have a very high mortality, if you average the international numbers, like 20-25% for ages 80+, still 7-8% for ages 70-80, then it drops to 3% and down to 0.2%.

- A high concentration of virus material can be found in the feces of infected people, but it appears to be inert; they weren't able to recover living viruses from it.

- Probably the most important: He doesn't expect warmer weather to help much: "the fact is that we always learn new things about this disease - my opinion changed over the past week through an important study that has appeared. A modeling study, I might add. All that we currently have to predict the future are model calculations. And such a study was published by a leading research group, which predicts the temperature effect on this virus
will be relatively small.
Until last Thursday I would have said that we have to do everything in our power to keep the summer 'quiet' to buy time for the winter - and to equip all clinics very well in the summer so that we are properly prepared for a winter wave.
But at the moment my assessment is more that we are likely to get a undisturbed wave of infection. That means: We have to expect that a maximum of cases will occur in the period from June to August."

In all his statements he didn't even mention stopping this thing. As I understand it, he fully expects this thing to go on for like a year, and we have to decide how to best manage it.

The write-up of yesterday's podcast (in German obv.) can be found here. And the video (auto-translate of auto-generated subs is somewhat sketchy though):

I was asked about it directly, and it's pretty relevant to this subject matter. Politics is intertwined with this one pretty hard.

Sometimes political decisions aren't just a big us vs. them sportsball game and can even affect real life! Crazy idea I know.

It still seems so strange though that it's not running wild in any hot places at the moment.

...could be that his assessment was specifically for Germany/Central Europe.

that seems like a bold assessment from this german doctor dude, is it a supervirus immune to UV ?

Check me on this, but I believe the reasons why the flu is less prevalent during summer months are not fully understood.

As I understand it, it's about the temperature, not the UV level. Anyway, the Sun's UV radiation doesn't get indoors really.

Long Beach has it's first "community transmission" case.

https://www.foxla.com/news/19-corona...y-transmission

Very interesting article on how this is being tracked, who's getting quarantined, etc.

**

All:

Can we please stop posting misinformation itt? This isn't the politics forum and the misinformation you all are writing here is absolutely disgusting. Yes, lies are coming from all directions, but a lie is a lie and I'd like it if everyone would try a little harder to stop the bullshit.

thx.

Oh and something else mentioned in that podcast: The pandemic plans usually assume an influenza scenario, like some new bird or swine flu variant. And for these cases, there are tools like Tamiflu, or the routine development and production of a new influenza vaccine every year, which can be adopted pretty easily to a new influenza strain. For this new Corona virus, all these tools are useless.

This isn't that surprising: flu has an R0 value of about 1.25, so it doesn't take much of a change towards unfavourable conditions to drop the transmission rate to a stage where each infected person (on average) infects less than 1 other person (ie: exponential decay rather than growth).

Covid-19 has much higher R0 (between 2 and 3 last I read) and thus needs a much bigger swing to unfavourable conditions to knock it into exponential decay.

If anybody is interested, then this blog post gives a very good explanation of how the models work:

https://triplebyte.com/blog/modeling...tious-diseases

(even if you don't know about ODEs; just looking at the pictorial representation he's made should still give you a good idea of what's going on)

Juk

I see several Vegas casinos are closing their buffets for now

Where was the misinformation?

I assume you have PHD in disease control and several years experience in combating epidemics/pandemics?

Or is misinformation more like information that reflects badly on entities you have emotional attachment to?

Our government might finally start doing something now it looks like it might effect them directly...

Juk

I was wondering the same, but didn't care enough to ask.

Some of the misinformation has been called-out.

If I say what that (or the rest) is, I give these lies debatable weight that it doesn't deserve. If you want to discuss bullshit, then go have a conversation with someone who thinks humans and dinosaurs coexisted.

Spreading misinformation does nothing to help the situation. Try being a little more responsible to yourself, your loved ones, and to everyone else on earth. Unlike debating someone who thinks humans rode around on dinos, this misinformation can cause people die.