Well nobody with even half a brain is using the extremes of the model to base any of their decisions on. Nobody actually believes 0 deaths in 2 months will be a real thing.


This guy turned out to be wrong about a few things (regarding a model that was created in early March by Michael Levitt) but his discussion about the limitations of modeling systems and what happens when the second derivative of the time trend goes negative is pretty interesting.
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.e...the-log-scale/

This is correct, but it wouldn't be wrong if they are trying to express when the worst of this wave is over. If the pols are making decisions about what to do next, making decisions on what to do when things are manageable is important. Likewise, making decisions on when things are likely going to be manageable is important.

While I agree that it's wrong to assume 0 cases in June, it's certainly possible that things will be manageable by then, at least for a few months. I'm cautiously optimistic that things are going to settle down by mid-May or June.

The cold reality is that no one has any answers to this situation, and we can't continue on our current course, so hope against hope are in the ballpark while they adjust the models according to new trends.

Wondering if washing inside nostrils with soap for those still out and working could help or if it that might be counterproductive. I do it occasionally after going out, but only after washing hands extremely thoroughly twice.

Get your hands on the crappiest biker crank you can find - as bad as that **** burns it has to be killing everything. And it will give you a little more energy to do your shopping!

Ya man definitely wash inside your nostrils. Actually I've read several reputable studies that conclude capsaicin effectively kills all viruses. Just shoot some tabasco up each nostril

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=COVID-19

Interesting site - 440 clinical trials with COVID-19 in the name. You can filter by status. Most are still recruiting.

I haven't trimmed my nose hairs in a month.

This won’t be when the worst is over tho.

We won’t have a vaccine for 18ish months and there is no way to have less infections than we have now without stricter restrictions.

All we know is that if we don’t keep doing what we are doing (or really more) then we will keep having thousands of death a day until we have a vaccine.

And a ton of states and cities are ramping up right now; even best case nyc has peaked (and it hasn’t since we won’t keep up even our lax “lock down” we have now), the rest of the country will continue ramping up and more people will die in May than April and more in June than May.

I can now pluck my nose hairs during work meetings. Double productivity!

Do you not understand the value of nose hairs?

Why do you think they call it "N"95?

After a few weeks you automatically upgrade to N99

the numbers of deaths per day in italy and spain are going down. we've pretty much been about 10 days behind them. if their deaths per day are going down, ours probably will too, no? it looks like less people will die in second half of april than in first half of april, right?

fewer

fewer

Let's assume there's no vaccine indefinitely. Won't the more susceptible individuals die during the early onset? This leaves the remaining population who aren't at high risk of succumbing to the virus. Therefore can we assume deaths will decline even number of infected rises?

world famous linguist noam chomsky would disagree with you, and your fascist classist grammar of made up rules for wannabe snobs like you that no one gives a **** about

and yes, i ended my "sentence" in a preposition, which is perfectly fine in english because english is not a case language. and it's how people talk. it's language that makes sense, not some rule that some bishop child molester made up in 1743 cuz he felt like it

Username works.

I think this logic is flawed and i will have to disagree. Italy and Spain is really small compared to the US. You theoretically would have to treat each country as if it were a state. So consider New York as Italy and NJ as Spain while the deaths won't go down i also don't think you will see a considerable rise because of the rest of the country is on some kind of lockdown. The next thing we need to figure out is what states are gonna start seeing more cases and deaths. PA and Michigan are my picks to start picking up.

Pretty sure LKJ was just making a GoT joke.

Ours our due to an outsized impact of nyc on our numbers. Tons of states and cities are growing fast, each the size of Italy or Spain.

You guys act like this isn’t gonna be a big deal in Florida or Texas or St Louis or Boise or Phoenix or 100 other places.

It’s more like I thought GOT had finally given me cover.

People either have caught it or they haven’t; some % between 1 and 3 of those who catch it will die.


Those who haven’t caught it yet we don’t yet know if they are more or less susceptible. For example, there are tons of nursing homes (99% of them) who haven’t had it spread to them yet; those will result in high fatalities when it does.

Your hypothetical is assuming everyone has been exposed and only the most susceptible have caught it and died.

Data from Smart Thermometers has shown a massive decrease in feverish illnesses just about everywhere (although the rural coverage is too limited to be very reliable).

https://healthweather.us/

Michigan is already third in cases and the number of deaths basically doubled to ~ 200 yesterday so you might be onto something

LKJ,

GoT was huge












but not that huge!

Deaths are doubling every 5 days or less in states like:

Michigan
Massachusetts
Illinois
Connecticut
Pennsylvania
Indiana
Texas
Maryland
Virginia
Nevada


Those states vary from 100 to 1300 deaths each so far and there is no reason to believe they won’t continue to double more and more.


And bullshit like “models are saying it’s not as bad” and “by Easter it’ll be ok” and “this week is the week from hell then it’s downhill” are going to get some higher % of people to go out to mass crowds this Easter Sunday and that’s going to infect a whole bunch more people and cause a lot of mid-late May deaths.