Quote:
Originally Posted by sh4gnscoob
Since I already have a thread on SSHE I thought I'd just post this question here....
There's obv. not an HH for this, so I'll do my best...
This is his hand example for Introduction to Postflop Concepts on pg. 96
Hole Cards: Qh 7h
One limper, one raiser, hero cold calls, folds to blinds who both call, limper calls.
Flop comes: Jc 7s 5h
Checks to PF raiser who bets, Hero.......
Okay so Miller says the correct play is to raise here and I'm trying to figure out WHY that would be a +EV play or even what reasoning is behind it. We've got middle pair with a backdoor queen high flush draw and one overcard to the flop.
So we could count our outs here as perhaps 1.5 for the backdoor flush (which I think is generous considering people play AXs AND KXs at some microstakes tables) and 2 outs to trip 7's, and 3 more outs to 2 pair. That's at most 6.5 outs, and the pot is only 11 SB's to the hero who... raises, giving him 13:2 or 6.5 to 1, despite the opportunity to knock out MAYBE one or two opponents. OBVIOUSLY these opponents are willing to cold call raises, and are probably calling to see the turn pretty ridiculously loose.
Considering position, this COULD be a free card play. But I have a hard time seeing the value in that if our hand could be made or broken on the turn (Ace or a King is bad, any non-heart isn't good), in which case seeing that last card doesn't matter nearly as much so why pay 2 SB's for the "free card" when you could see a really important turn card for just 1?
Am I stupid? Is there something else I'm not considering here? Free card play seems to make sense but are we really going to go for these kind of plays with what seems like a very weak holding against a lot of opponents?
The pot is big and a raise here protects your hand. There is a section on page 156-158 of SSHE that talks about protecting your hand in spots like this. It's titled "
When Calling Cannot Be Right." I'll sum up the important parts of that section: By calling you allow your opponents to draw profitably. If you raise your opponents will either fold in a big pot, or they will call two bets when they often should fold (thus making a mistake, which is good). Also, you won't win as many big pots if you just call. Instead, calling will cause you to lose pots that you should have won. By raising you may sometimes lose a few extra bets, but
the extra pots you win should more than make up for that.
There is a good chance you could get a couple of folds here because three people checked to the preflop raiser, and they'll have to call two bets. You say that an ace or king is bad on the turn. That's a reason for raising on the flop. Imagine if you could get hands with an ace or a king to fold in a large pot. Your chances of winning go up significantly. You will win a few more pots that you wouldn't have won had you just called. Also, don't discount the possibility that someone might fold a seven with a better kicker, or a jack with a weak kicker (probably unlikely but when it happens it's huge).
By the way, I actually made a similar raise in a 2/4 game a couple of weeks ago, and I'm pretty sure the guy to my right actually did fold top pair. He bet with a pair of kings, I raised with a pair of eights, and he decided to fold on the flop for just one bet. I won the pot, and his reaction was "Aww you raised with that?"