Weird. Maybe the (free version of Equilab's) Monte Carlo sim isn't as random as I thought.
I never trusted the Enumerate All button, because I figured it can't be right if it gets the result instantly, but I'm not sure how the program works. :/
Quote:
Originally Posted by poker2016
If SB has a hand that have exactly 55% equity against BB 45% equity, SB want BB call or fold?
Do the EV calc yourself and work it out.
EV = [how often you win * how much you win] - [how often you lose * how much you lose]
Assuming 10bb starting stacks, and SB has equity of 55% when called, then his EV when his shove is called is...
[55% * 10.5] - [45% * 9.5] = 5.775 - 4.275 = 1.5bb
If the shove isn't called, SB adds the dead money to his stack uncontested = 1.5bb.
So with that much equity, he's indifferent. He wins 1.5bb on average when he gets called, and he wins 1.5bb when BB folds. If his hand has more than 55% equity against the hand that calls him, he'd make more money from being called than from stealing the blinds. If he has less than 55% equity when called, he'd prefer to get the shove through uncontested, since more of his EV comes from fold equity.