Hey guys so I have 200k hands and in that sample I was raising all A2s-A8s hands UTG - I think it is standard in most games but for some reason I am losing -0.35bb per hand

What can be done. My stats are 22/18/5 3bet My barreling frequencies are 60 50 47 I think that I play ok postflop but for some reason I am not making money with low suited aces A2-A8

Also when faced with 3bet for me suited aces like 85% fold 15% 4bet (if opponent has high 3bet + high fold to 4bet stats)

If you winning with low suited aces UTG or HJ maybe you can give some pointers what should be general strategy.

Thanks

You probably play in games where villains call too much for you to turn them into profitable bluffs in a lot of spots. With high rake and most likely call heavy villains folding them is probably ok.

Maybe drop some of the weaker hands and try playing the ones you keep more aggressively post-flop.

How big are you opening UTG? (i.e. Do you use 3bb or 2.5bb as your size?)

rake is too high

probably not enough of a sample in some of these case. also it is wise to not use polarized holdings and to just play upper half of some ranges.... pitching A2s-A7s for example. (vs weak players)

FWIW I just ran the filters position=EP, holecards=A9s-A2s on a smaller database (about 85,000 hands) and got the following results:




I was surprised I was winning that much (83bb/100), as I think most of those hands are fairly close to breakeven at equilibrium, so are subject to a great deal of variance. I must have run quite well with Axs over this sample. I didn't open every combo 100% of the time, but I'm 4-betting the group 18% of the time (which has been quite profitable at 2NLz-10NLz) when I have the opportunity to do so.

With those specific hands in that specific position, my c-bet frequency was only 39%, but I had a WTSD of 38% (!) and a W$SD of 56%. I did a lot of check-folding though. Particularly when I'm called by someone that has position on me, I'm rarely trying to play a big pot with a weak ace, so more commonly I'm bluffcatching and trying to get to a cheap showdown.

P.S. I just ran the same filter but for MP (where my 4-bet freq went up to 31%) and found I was losing 74bb/100. Variance gonna variance?

just get it all in mate like eric did aganist johnny chan,

Can you stop aidsing up threads in BQ? Go to NVG, BBV or the religious threads like I do.

fair enough. you gave me some good ideas.

That's a sample size of 9*4/(52 choose 2)*1/6*200000 =~ 900 hands. At -35BB/100 you're down about 320BB. Win three stacks with those hands and you're back to breakeven. Your sample size is too small to draw meaningful conclusions about such a small subset of hands.

I recommend learning how to do some statistical tests on samples like this to determine the confidence that you are winning or losing. It depends on win-rate, sample size and standard deviation.

FWIW I'm pretty sure you're supposed to be about breakeven with those hands. I wouldn't worry about it and focus on post-flop play unless you start losing more than 35BB/100 as your sample continues to grow.

2.5bb is standard for me from all positions exept from SB I use 3bb raise from sb.

2.5bb is good. I think you're just seeing variance do its crazy thing. You need absolutely massive samples when you're analysing results with suited combos, because you don't get dealt them very often. You said you were profitable with the same hands in MP, weren't you? The EV is probably somewhere between the two sets of results you got. i.e. All those hands are close to breakeven in the long run.