magorko over like 500k hands at 500z or w/e he posted

You know Ive considered for awhile that the vast majority of what we know as "winners", are not actually winners and are just running hot, yes even if it is over hundreds of thousands of hands. Running good you can move up a level in what 40k hands? That would mean if some guy ran good for say 200k hands (very possible) we may well have guys at nl100 who are actually not beating nl5 lol. I doubt that would ever be going though these winners minds!

that's good, how much did he beat it for? In reality though this is clearly going to be like what 0.001% of players? I would be more interested in seeing some large samples from some decent, not god like, players are nl50 and below. Because until that happens, Im with mirage in that everyone is actually just break even lol.

One thing that is worth mentioning is obviously the disgraceful robbery that is rake (not sure what its like at nl500). These games are so easy to beat but unfortunately we just don't see any of the money. Over 80 hands pokerstars has took around 6bb/100, which I would say is beyond huge.

5bb/100 IIRC
pretty impressive

You're doing pretty well if you're only paying 6bb/100 at micros. I think I paid a little over 10bb at 25 zoom?

your still here trolling zoom? I dunno if it has been said, but if you can beat zoom then just go play reg tables.

You might make it to 10nl or smth before you think reg tables are rigged too.

<3

FWIW myself, Gamma, birdayy, asriva and several others ITT (I've forgotten specifically who's posted) are all beating Zoom over a 'decent' sample.

dat overbet

guys , how many opportunities of folding to 3-bet or fold to steal do you think is the least you should have on villains before you make an exploitative move?

I currently use few opportunities as a measure to deviate something like 4 or 5 but i think i overdo it and its probably variance or population tendecies that makes my plays profitable , a sample of 10 or more opportunities is much better? or something like this?

ehm I think 5-10 is FAAAR to little
especially in Button vs blinds, where it can easily happen that if villain steals 70%, he just has ****y hands 50 times in a row and has to fold to a 3bet...
i guess you would need somehere in the range of 50+ sample size. which is, depending on positions an villains RFI by position probably around 1500+ total hands on villain
maye when over 20 samples, villain folds 0 or 100% to 3bets, you can make an assumption that their game is completely ****ed up.. but if it i, lets say 50%, it can as well be variance and he can have a real Ft3b of 30 or 80%.

what is standard line/sizing here? assumed reg


[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #32886232

BTN: $5.47 (109.4 bb)
SB: $5.43 (108.6 bb)
BB: $5 (100 bb)
UTG: $9.27 (185.4 bb)
MP: $5.73 (114.6 bb)
Hero (CO): $5.07 (101.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 4 4
UTG raises to $0.15, MP folds, Hero calls $0.15, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.37) 5 T 4 (2 players)
UTG bets $0.19, Hero raises to $0.55, UTG calls $0.36

Turn: ($1.47) 9 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.70, UTG raises to $8.10,

I think trusting small sample sizes has caused me a lot of trouble in the past, now I try to simply concentrate on notes etc, seeing what someone went to showdown with and how they played that specific hand Ive found is more valuable than having say 200 hands on someone.

Id say for f3bet% and things like that you'd want like 30+ opportunities, even then though it changes quite a lot. If you have your own stats on display you will see how much your stats deviate for each session. Remember when you look at someones f3bet% those hands where not all played against you. So if I get 3bet by someone and I suspect (due to stats) that he MAY be 3betting light Id just take a note, something like "3bets light?", then if he does it a second or third time against you, you've got him cracked pretty much, and you cant do that just looking at a stat. Like if you see someone 3 barrel with a straight draw or something, just seeing that once is way more useful than looking at his cbet stats, wtsd/w$sd% etc.

This means taking tons of notes every session but imo they are 10x more valuable than stats. Another interesting point is that people play different hands in different ways, example 2 guys could have a 3bet of 10% but be 3betting completely different hands, Ive seen it many times.

All probably obvious but it helped me a lot. Just my 2cents.

Basically im not looking for a 100% correct response to stats , what am i asking is basically when hud is worth considering over population tendecies or balance , 50 sample isnt a bit too much? i think at zoom you will need to play a ridiculus amount of hands to ever gather such sample on players , at least at micro stakes.

play around with a binomial calculator

I would fold pre. 44 in CO vs UTG is breakeven at best. I want 77 at least.
As played, you can raise or flat the flop. When you raise and get called, villain's range is TPTK, overpairs and the NFD.
Half-potting the turn is fine to get value from the overpairs with a spade, but checking back is OK too. When villain check-shoves, you fold, because he has the nuts almost always, and you don't have the right price to try and boat up.

Thanks for this reply, excellent one at that too! The only thing that i'm puzzled over is the fold pre. I assumed set mining was best played against positions with a tight range as the implied odds are bigger and with it being 5nl there are not going to be a tremendous amount of squeezes from the blinds. Also i'm in position, not questioning your statement at all, just interesting that's all.

People are generally quite tight UTG, playing pocket pairs and suited broadways mostly. Additionally, alot of people dont include small pocket pairs (<66) in their UTG opening range. If we call with 44 and flop a set we rely on our opponent not being able to fold overpairs and TPGK+. This certainly can be profitable. However, the times when we dont improve, his range is a considerable favorite and we will have to fold. There is also the possibility of getting set over setted with low pocket pairs, especially if UTGs range is pocket pair heavy, and when this happens, we get stacked. There is also a risk of getting squeezed if the blinds are aggro but this is less likely to happen UTG is opening the action. Adding these things up makes calling here with low pocket pairs fairly marginal against an unknown.

Imo it's villain dependant. If you are able to take the pot away from him on the flop when you havent connected (i.e. he has postflop leaks) or is the type who regularly cbets flop and gives up the turn, then it is profitable to call here. However, read less and without stats its probably a fold.

It's probably OK to set-mine at 5NL, but not at 10NL+.
An additional reason for folding that wasn't mentioned in the post above this, is that as you move up, there will be more squeezes by the button or the blinds. It's just burning money if you call 3bb and then have to fold every time there's squeeze.
Save your set-mining for hands like 77+ that can at least flop a pair with some showdown value (and sometimes an OESD). You can call with 44 in the BB getting a better price, but the CO is too early imo. Set-mining just isn't as profitable in 2014 as it was 2 years ago.

Guys! Is it the new trend that everybody is calling the 4bets all day long? I saw every kind of hand, it's insane. A lot of undersized 3bets and they are calling 4bets almost always. It's not just QQ+.

i hope so

the games have move on from 5bet or fold type strats

But the min 5-bet still keeps me baffled.

Would need to look some math about it, but I'm too busy crushing.

PS. Are even half of the people balancing it in NL25-50z???

After the showdowns I see that people with high 3b stats are 3b/5bet AI TT+, Ax hands. With monsters they rather 4bc and trap. I also see a lot of 4bc setmine with PPs and call with broadways.
And there are a lot of surprises, nits with super low 3b stats 3bets with 53s and similar. And it sucks when they just hits their ****ty nuts with those hands.

No. 99% of the people who min5b at those stakes just have AA and don't want you to fold.

Sample. Confirmation bias.

Yeah, everytime I've been getting min 5-bet and I hold QQ KK or AK, I'm like, I know I'm ****ed, but just can't really get myself off the hands other than QQ.

and thats the difference between you and them