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01-18-2013 , 06:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LosingShark
That's kind of weakness, isn't? Good players are not supposed to use hot-keys?

Wut?

ty guys,
What about preflop raise and sizing?
About 100bb buy-in, Whenever I tried big stack strategy, I ended-up with tilt, I'm kind of comfortable with medium stack(50bb-), I know it's not optimal and reduces the win rate, but it also reduce variance and this way I tilt less.


will not reduce variance.
What do you mean? I think it does in dollar terms,
Suppose you lose 10 buy-in,
if it is 100bb: 10*100=1000bb
if it is 50bb: 10*50=500bb
500bb<1000bb
Maybe you mean the short/medium stack strategy does not reduce the variance? That I agree. It does not necessarily , it depends. I just buy-in for 50bb, that does not mean that I necessarily push/fold.
ps:
Sorry about english, it's not my first language.

Last edited by big_lebawski; 01-18-2013 at 06:25 AM.
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01-18-2013 , 06:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by A.Ertbjerg
then why aren't you betting turn bigger?
I thought half pot would do the job. Now looking at it and after hearing all your lots arguments Im torn, fold turn or bet bigger turn. Either way, I know I did it wrong and feel suitably chastised.
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01-18-2013 , 06:42 AM
50bbs is awkward for a bunch of reasons mainly spr, if your going to short-stack 40bb is prob optimal. also i dont mean to be rude, but i dont think you understand how short-stackers make profit. you will definately incounter more variance since you will be flipping way getting it in way lighter than you would 100bb deep, imo i think its way more +ev to just learn to play 100bb+ or move to hypers or cap games or some****.

also your english is fine
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01-18-2013 , 07:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LosingShark
50bbs is awkward for a bunch of reasons mainly spr, if your going to short-stack 40bb is prob optimal. also i dont mean to be rude, but i dont think you understand how short-stackers make profit. you will definately incounter more variance since you will be flipping way getting it in way lighter than you would 100bb deep, imo i think its way more +ev to just learn to play 100bb+ or move to hypers or cap games or some****.

also your english is fine
Ty again for the answer,
I have another question, why most of you guys play short-handed(6max) zoom instead of full ring? It's just because of collecting more VPP?
Because I think variance in full ring is lower than 6max(or I'm wrong again?).
You know, I have a background of trading(forex,gold,...) that's why I'm so obsessed with variance(and also bankroll management). I'd do anything to reduce variance.
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01-18-2013 , 07:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chad0x001
yeah when I bet turn, Im always barreling.
Quote:
Originally Posted by chad0x001
I thought half pot would do the job. Now looking at it and after hearing all your lots arguments Im torn, fold turn or bet bigger turn. Either way, I know I did it wrong and feel suitably chastised.
When you bet turn you were planning to triple barrel. So turn sizing isn't about what will do the job (getting him to fold on turn) because you really aren't expecting him to fold all that much. Turn sizing should be about how much you win on the river. Basically you are expecting to win your turnbet, not giving yourself a cheap price on a bluff.
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01-18-2013 , 07:43 AM
FR is lower variance then 6-max and playing 50 bb deep is lower variance then 100 bb deep. LosingShark is wrong when he says otherwise.

That being said, your goal shouldn't be to reduce variance, it should be to maximize your winnings. Playing 50 bb deep may be the right way for you to maximize your winnings, I don't know. But you need to learn to accept variance and just use proper bank roll management to get through bad stretches.
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01-18-2013 , 08:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by A.Ertbjerg
and playing 50 bb deep is lower variance
Hm? I always thought short stacking would have higher variance. You end up way more often in preflop-All-In, coinflips or 60:40 situations where all the money goes in and we see a river more frequently overall. That should result in a higher variance, no? Is there a good thread on 2+2 on this? Couldn't find one.
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01-18-2013 , 08:33 AM
First hand with the guy. Would've folded if any spade but the ace hit the river. In retrospect I think I played fine until the river bet + call.

BTN: $1.49 (74.5 bb)
Hero (SB): $3.48 (174 bb)
BB: $1.09 (54.5 bb)
UTG: $1.67 (83.5 bb)
MP: $5.85 (292.5 bb)
CO: $2.03 (101.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A A
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.06, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.16, BB folds, MP calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.34) 9 6 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.22, MP calls $0.22

Turn: ($0.78) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.60, MP calls $0.60

River: ($1.98) A (2 players)
Hero bets $1, MP raises to $2.25, Hero calls $1.25
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01-18-2013 , 08:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Palikari
Hm? I always thought short stacking would have higher variance. You end up way more often in preflop-All-In, coinflips or 60:40 situations where all the money goes in and we see a river more frequently overall. That should result in a higher variance, no? Is there a good thread on 2+2 on this? Couldn't find one.
Quote:
Originally Posted by A.Ertbjerg


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

This is for everyone, so the standard deviations aren't disproportionally affected by my more laggy style.

So standard deviations of 75bb/100 vs 40bb/100 for my database. Also note that I havent filtered the 6-max data so not everybody in the regular 6-max pool is playing full stacked. I would expect the standard deviation would be even higher if I filtered for 100+ bbs.

For reference I'm having a std dev of 40bb/100 for CAP games and about 110bb/100 for full stacked.

This is comparing CAP vs 100 bb, 50 bb deep would fall somewhere in between.
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01-18-2013 , 08:57 AM
Was doing some work on HM2 last night. Be interested to hear what people's fold to flop cbet and fold to turn cbet %s are at 6max?
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01-18-2013 , 08:57 AM
Shortstacking talk or people thinking about shortstacking, need to gtfo out of mine and chads thread.
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01-18-2013 , 09:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by A.Ertbjerg
This is comparing CAP vs 100 bb, 50 bb deep would fall somewhere in between.
30k hands is a small samplesize to draw conclusions, no? It just seems so counterintuitive for me. Anyway. I don't want to derail this thread any longer. I'll leave it at that.
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01-18-2013 , 09:05 AM
I swear I don't even enjoy running good.. all I feel is guilt.

    Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #15544111

    BTN: $6.61 (132.2 bb)
    Hero (SB): $8.75 (175 bb)
    BB: $5.27 (105.4 bb)
    UTG: $9.48 (189.6 bb)
    MP: $10.78 (215.6 bb)
    CO: $8.07 (161.4 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with 3 3
    2 folds, CO calls $0.05, BTN raises to $0.20, Hero calls $0.18, BB folds, CO calls $0.15

    Flop: ($0.65) 5 Q A (3 players)
    Hero checks, CO checks, BTN checks

    Turn: ($0.65) 5 (3 players)
    Hero checks, CO checks, BTN bets $0.40, Hero raises to $1.05, CO calls $1.05, BTN folds

    River: ($3.15) 3 (2 players)
    Hero bets $2.20, CO calls $2.20

    Spoiler:
    Results: $7.55 pot ($0.31 rake)
    Final Board: 5 Q A 5 3
    Hero showed 3 3 and won $7.24 ($3.79 net)
    CO mucked Q A and lost (-$3.45 net)



    Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.
    Zoom / Rush Poker thread Quote
    01-18-2013 , 09:11 AM
    You both played the hand aids.
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    01-18-2013 , 09:12 AM
    sunrunner speaks truth
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    01-18-2013 , 09:15 AM
    Which added to the guilt I feel
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    01-18-2013 , 09:17 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Palikari
    30k hands is a small samplesize to draw conclusions, no? It just seems so counterintuitive for me. Anyway. I don't want to derail this thread any longer. I'll leave it at that.
    nah, 30k hands is enough to give a good estimate. It really shouldn't be that counter intuitive. 40bb/100 in CAP games is also 2 BI/100 compared to 0.75BI/100 100 bb deep.
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    01-18-2013 , 09:37 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by A.Ertbjerg
    FR is lower variance then 6-max and playing 50 bb deep is lower variance then 100 bb deep. LosingShark is wrong when he says otherwise.

    That being said, your goal shouldn't be to reduce variance, it should be to maximize your winnings. Playing 50 bb deep may be the right way for you to maximize your winnings, I don't know. But you need to learn to accept variance and just use proper bank roll management to get through bad stretches.
    no, you'll have more variance the shorter you are, since most of your decisions are either to get aipf preflop or on the flop. there is much less skill involved with playing short which results in the fact that its impossible to have a similar winrate to guys who play at least 100bbs deep
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    01-18-2013 , 09:46 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by chiego
    no, you'll have more variance the shorter you are, since most of your decisions are either to get aipf preflop or on the flop. there is much less skill involved with playing short which results in the fact that its impossible to have a similar winrate to guys who play at least 100bbs deep
    What about needbeer (WizardOfAhhs)?

    http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=228

    he said:
    It probably isn't fair for me to make a generalization about the masses as some 100bb players will be the exception to the rule, and some SS'ers will be the exception.
    From my experience there isn't much of a difference between the top SS'ers and 100bb players relative to overall poker IQ. Both are accurate with preflop 3bet ranges, and both are good at postflop play (pot control, etc.)

    By the way, thank you guys, it's really great that you high-stake players answer to our questions, I really appreciate that.

    Last edited by big_lebawski; 01-18-2013 at 09:53 AM.
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    01-18-2013 , 09:48 AM
    @ chad. When you bluff the turn planning to tripple barrel the riv, your turn bluff is actually considered a value bet. You want him to call then fold to a riv bet so the more you bet OTT the more profit you make.

    More info in grindcores vid http://www.deucescracked.com/videos/...-and-Practicum
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    01-18-2013 , 10:09 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Burnss
    Shortstacking talk or people thinking about shortstacking, need to gtfo out of mine and chads thread.
    shortstackers confirmed pure evil

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    01-18-2013 , 10:10 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by A.Ertbjerg
    nah, 30k hands is enough to give a good estimate. It really shouldn't be that counter intuitive. 40bb/100 in CAP games is also 2 BI/100 compared to 0.75BI/100 100 bb deep.
    eh, i cant really argue my point because ive done little to no research on it and it looks like you have. i just logically assumed naturally its going to be more swingy because your edges are thinner.

    but as burns said, shortstacking scum not welcome
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    01-18-2013 , 10:46 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by chiego
    no, you'll have more variance the shorter you are, since most of your decisions are either to get aipf preflop or on the flop. there is much less skill involved with playing short which results in the fact that its impossible to have a similar winrate to guys who play at least 100bbs deep
    I mean, I only presented evidence that the variance is smaller in CAP compared to 100 bb deep. Not really sure how you can argue the opposite.

    You are, of course, correct that winrates are much lower in CAP games.
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    01-18-2013 , 10:52 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by GutshotDan92
    This.

    Platic:

    I also agree with your AT analysis. At 5NL, you will find more than enough opponents who will station your river bet with second pair for reasons along the line of "Well, there is 2 kings on the board so I effectivly have TP and TP is the nutz".

    However, lets say we are at 10NL where regs are not as bad - IE can find the fold button - would you say you are effectivly commiting yourself to a river barrel (once you bet that turn) on most cards targeting those 2nd pair hands, missed draws?
    Yeah because I don't expect him to ever fold 2nd pair on the turn. AT is a pretty decent hand to put in our 3barrel range, so bet twice vs anyone semi competent is shwayze.
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    01-18-2013 , 10:59 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dunna100
    Was doing some work on HM2 last night. Be interested to hear what people's fold to flop cbet and fold to turn cbet %s are at 6max?
    40, 38.
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