888 Poker - $0.05 NL (6 max) FAST - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (BTN): 125.4 BB
SB: 115.6 BB (VPIP: 19.83, PFR: 16.31, 3Bet Preflop: 6.37, Hands: 869)
BB: 101.6 BB (VPIP: 12.12, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 34)
UTG: 115.4 BB (VPIP: 19.64, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 58)
MP: 285.2 BB (VPIP: 22.12, PFR: 16.96, 3Bet Preflop: 4.65, Hands: 114)
CO: 173.2 BB (VPIP: 18.64, PFR: 14.89, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 240)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Kh Kd
UTG raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 6 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 4 BB

Flop : (13.4 BB, 2 players) 3d Kc Jc
UTG bets 6.6 BB, Hero raises to 19.8 BB, UTG calls 13.2 BB

Turn : (53 BB, 2 players) Tc
UTG checks, Hero bets 39.6 BB, UTG raises to 89.6 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 50 BB

River : (232.2 BB, 2 players) Ah

Hero shows Kh Kd (Three of a Kind, Kings)
(Pre 66%, Flop 74%, Turn 23%)

UTG shows 5c Ac (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 34%, Flop 26%, Turn 77%)

UTG wins 218.6 BB


Was I supposed to shut down with flopped top set because a draw happened to come through on the turn?

Fold, he has a flush

If I'm doing the maths right the turn call was definitely OK even assuming he had exactly what he did. But should I have done something different before that?

Are you saying that you do not want A5s to call against KK?

Are you saying that you change the size of your preflop bets/raises based on your cards?

That doesn't make any sense as a response to what he was saying. What exactly is your point without the sarcasm?
Raising 10c to 30c with a value hand preflop is completely standard in the reggy game that I was playing. Maybe raising huge would be a good strategy for 2NL but everyone with half a brain knows what it means today. Yes if I made it bigger he likely would have folded.
Does that mean I should turn KK into a bluff preflop?
EDIT: Also the guy was saying it's good to raise 10c to $2. You really want to back that up?

Flat the flop donk and use your positional advantage to make correct decisions.

As played, bet smaller on the turn, or check it back. I'm not really sure what you're repping when you raise the flop and barrel big. Would you ever raise the flop with a flush draw (I think you only have a couple of combos remaining from your 3-bet range) or something like KQ with the Qc when you could just float the flop?
Obviously you're priced in now, but villain nearly always has the nuts, unless he's spazzing with JJ.

Flat a random donk bet on a fairly wet board with the nuts?
I thought I was repping exactly what I had. I guess I could've checked back turn on the danger card but I don't think I was getting away from it unless another club came on the river ...
Donk bets are usually pairs trying to get a cheap showdown in this game so I guess I decided if he has it he has it and I'm going to get stacked... yeah he could have the nuts but I'm not sure I'd say he has it always.
I guess I'm not quite sure on how big the role of hero folds is in these games. I know in HUNL you should pretty much never hero fold. I thought I'd be losing value too often when he doesn't have me beat (and he has TPTK/ two pair/ weaker set).

I don't like a turn bet here. The preflop and flop raises are good but on the turn you're pretty much value owning yourself, especially with that size. I like checking turn and seeing what he does on the river. A lot of his donking range gets there and I say donking range because a lot of weak players like to do this stuff with the draws on this kind of flop. Play your hand strength and think about what price you're getting on the river+is he bluffing with that sizing. I understand why you don't want to check turn but there's no good reason to do it at these stakes.

EDIT: As played, calling is 0EV. You're getting even money on calling when we know that you are facing a flush draw (most most certainly). So fold if you like to keep your hard earned $2.5 or call and gambol+you can say you're always running below EV

Completely disagree about the flop play. You want to give draws the wrong price to continue in the hand. He shold have checked the turn and probably fold to a large river bet. On that board both a flush and straight beat hero.

No sarcasm. I was responding to this.

My mistake, sorry dude.

Thanks everyone, the turn check makes a lot of sense now. Tilt is one hell of a thing.

100% raise flop vs this donkbet, there is 0% need to disguise or let him barrel because you block almost all Kx combinations and there are lots of hands he can and will continue with. He can have all AcXc and a lot of straight draws and calling lets him realize this equity. I don't see how he has a hand that can bet or call the turn but will not continue to a raise. If he has 33/JJ you can get the money in right there and if he has a draw you charge him. Unless he is randomly donking flop and then barreling the turn with something with no equity there is no merit in flatting.

Turn is preferably a check since a lot of hands that he does call the raise with now improve.

Pre-flop & flop are fine. In fact, OTF flop, you want to play for stacks with top set, since with his stats, UTG is probably not open raising with QTs.

The turn is arguable. Villain's stack size says you're pricing yourself in to a shove if you bet big enough.

Even if I check it back on the turn, I'm calling a lot of river bets since that turn check induces him to bluff.

I get stacked here more often than not.

Let's try this one again:

Confirmed: I'm the only one in here that plays like a pseudo GTO bot.

This may be too technical but how does Snowie calculate the EV of each option? I can't imagine that when you include fold equity that it is higher EV to just flat.

It just plays the hand against itself a few billion times and tries all the ways the hand can play out. In this case it is probably the amount of folds a raise gets that makes it less profitable than a raise.

In the real world this donkbet is totally unbalanced and will give more action against a raise than a GTO bot would. I would bet my house plus my cat that a raise is better here against an actual fish.

Thanks for the reply. Is it also assuming that hero plays perfectly and never gets stacked once the flush completes?

Isn't the fact that we're only estimating against a nut flush draw here a fundamental weakness in this EV calc?

No because they don't actually know the hand the other has. In this case snowy runs a hand against a hand and lets two bots play their own hand vs the other. When a club comes on the river they don't know that the other has a flush.

Also while against the nut flushdraw the GTO bot might say flatting is best, against the entire range raising has to be far superior.

should raise a little more on the flop but overall you played it okay. unfortunately you do not get to win every hand and it is a fallacy to believe that just because you lost a hand you made a mistake.

You were supposed to use the hand converter.

I would x/c the turn - a lead there is almost always a flush, however you have 10 outs to a full house and bluffs/2P/lower sets are possible. Really, nobody folds KK there - nothing you can do.