Worth it to flip early on in a 9man SNG?
08-22-2010
, 01:38 PM
I get what you mean though but you cant really count it once the game has started, since there is no chance of winning it back.
Not up eleven cents. And it doesn't care who he is. Which is fine because it's a model but things it doesn't consider might change your equity calcs more than you think. Or they might not. Have you got Mathematics of Poker? They have a 'theory of doubling up' where (briefly) they simplify tourneys to 'double or bust' and work out a constant edge that results in a particular finish distribution. A different model but worth a look if you like this sort of thing (they also have a tournament size evaluator which I haven't played with yet) a stab at 'skill-equity'.
Quote:
Yeah, ICM only calculates what the chips are worth, not skill. The greater the skill the less someone should be taking risks like this. But unless he has him dominated (which there is no way to tell, even then its close), its a mistake to get involved here. There is no way to tell for sure he has him dominated so its a clear fold.
Note: Not even taking into consideration what is going to happen behind either... and the last thing we would want here is someone else coming in.
Note: Not even taking into consideration what is going to happen behind either... and the last thing we would want here is someone else coming in.
And yes the more skill the worse taking risks that get you busted can be. But there are limits. It's fun trying to find out where those limits are, I just don't take a model's word as gospel. Chipping up early from donks has more merit than the figures suggest (in my opinion) not least denying those easy chips to your competitors. You also have insurance when you win that you aren't going to have to worry about survival nearly as much as everyone else. And other assorted stuff that hasn't been poured into the model.
The general case to shy away from close decisions early is a good one. This one is not close enough to ignore imo.
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