yeh, rigth supereasy....
Thats why the biggest winners on PTR has a winrate of 1-5.......

Just wondering - do the winrates include bonuses/rakeback and the like?

1 million hands of NL10 is quite a grind. At that level at least there is a lot of easy money for the taking finding the fish and punishing them for playing. I think a win rate of 5 BB/100 is reasonable assuming you are playing few enough tables that the fish stick out like sore thumbs.

Im not saying that anyone should play 1 million hands at nl10, Im saying thats how long it would take to get a really accurate sample. Which is why people should not be focusing on winrates over small samples.

What are more pertinant stats that people should be concentrating on? One million hands is a lot of hands for a beginner or at any given level in micro stakes. What recommendations would you have for self analysis and game improvement rather than get back to me in 900,000 hands?

These are all my hands at 25NL. No rakeback or bonuses included (dont have either )

Focus on getting better, studying, posting hands, reading strat and posting your stats for analysis. Just try to play good and don't use your results to determine whether or not you are playing good, use the forum and use logic, because results are too high in variance. Ive won at 15bb/100 for 40k hands, then broke even for 40k hands all the time playing exactly the same.

Playing 100k hands will tell you if your a winning player and it will give you a good sample to analyze stats, but winrates dont converge very much over 100k hands, so you cant take much notice of them.

1. Can you identify the fish at your tables?
2. Can you develop a plan to exploit the different fish you encounter?
3. How often are you able to anticipate the plays of your opponents?
4. How often are you hit with a bet/raise and have no idea what to do?
5. How often do you find yourself making a play that you know you shouldn't?

Basically, if you have control over your tables, are able to plan hands over multiple streets, and are able to control your tilt, you should find yourself with a decent edge over your average 2NL, 5NL and 10NL opponents. As far as knowing when to execute certain plays and improving at hand reading, the best resource is the strategy forums. Post a lot of responses to others' threads and you will get a good sense of where your thought process needs to improve.

Also this. When people talk about what winrates are good/sustainable they should also say how many tables. Of course you could beat the game for 10bb/100 if you 4 tabled and table selected extremely well. On the other hand if your 16 tabling then 3 or 4bb/100 is fine.

IMO, if you are only beating 25nl for 2ptbb(4bb)/100 you have a ton of leaks. there is no reason you should not table select well at these limits as there at a ton of tables to pick from.

also playing more than 4 tables when trying to learn poker is a waste of time and you wont learn much so when you move up you will prob get crushed.

stop going to ptr to get an idea of winrates. that site is wrong

The thing is though, as people have explained already, it would literally take at least 1 million hands to find out if you are actually only beating the game for 2ptbb/100. If you play 50k hands at nl25 and you win at 2ptbb/100, that is not your winrate, that is just what you happened to win at over that stretch.

I dont think you realize (like 99% of people around here) how long it takes for winrates to become accurate.

5 big blinds/100 hands is very optimistic.
See the list with the biggest winners above

150k hands is enough to get an accurate winrate. this is the micros we are talking about. its not 1000nl where its mostly regs battling it out with high variance.

You guys arguing with Green are missing the point. Just play 40K hands and see how you run. If you run at 3BB/100 or better, don't post a graph saying that you're an [x]/BB winner at [x]NL - just be grateful for your good fortune, take your bankroll to the next level, and try to continue to improve. If you don't hit 3BB/100 or better, it doesn't necessarily mean you suck at poker (well I mean we all suck at poker to some degree) - just continue to work at it and try to plug your leaks. Knowing your stats after those 40K will be of some limited use to you in leak-plugging, but basically only to these extent that your stats are in the extremes.

No its not. 150k hands is an ok sample and its bigger than what most around here post and brag about, but playing 150k hands will still not show you what your true winrate is. Playing 150k hands will mean that your true winrate is between +/- 4bb/100 of your result with 90% confidence.

For example, say you play 150k hands and win at 5bb/100. There is a 90% chance that your true winrate lies anywhere between 1bb/100 to 8bb/100. Not very accurate at all. To get within +/- 2bb/100 with 99% confidence it would take 1.6 million hands.

That's why no one will ever know their true winrate, they can just get a more accurate idea the longer they play. And 20k, 50k, 100k is not a lot, thats why you should not use results to determine whether or not you have leaks. Like I sadi Ive had vastly different winrates over 40k samples at the same level and I didn't change my game at all.

At 10NL, if you have major leaks you will bleed out before you get 1,000,000 hands. As a player who normally only multitables 3 or 4 tables at a time of 6 Max, it would take me years before I would be sniffing 1 million hands in my database.

I can see that varience session to session a lot of it seems to stem more from running poor and losing the big pots more than anything. Extrapolating winrate to me at least seems the only viable way of determining when you will get to move up in levels. The only way a player will know their true winrate is to die and do the analysis afterwards. It is like playing the stock market in a sense and things changes but looking at your winrate in conjunction with monthly winrate returns is the only means for bankroll extrapolation.

The thing is that no one ever stays at 10NL for close to that long. If you multitable 3 tables at 6max for 10 hours/week, after 30 weeks you will have played about 45K hands. If you run at 3BB/100 over that time period, you will have earned $270. Assuming that you started with $200, you will now have $470 (plus rakeback) and can justify taking a shot at 25NL if you feel ready. To determine whether or not you feel ready, don't extrapolate based on your winnings at 10NL - that tells you very little about whether you are good at 10NL and absolutely nothing about whether you will succeed at 25NL. Instead, base your decision on the things I mentioned in my earlier post, and maybe post your stats in the stats thread to see if any of your stats are so extreme as to warrant attention.

10NL

Player Site Net Hands bb/100
Wreed Platzak Full Tilt Poker $940 320 1469.19

http://www.pokertableratings.com/top...e/0.05-0.10-NL

ROFL, hows that possibly possible?

flipping or chip dumping.


as far as ptr goes with biggest winners.. I don't bother with the site, but I would imagine the biggest winners are the ones that play the most tables.. so they would be extremely happy with a 3-4bb winrate... since with a good rakeback deal, their money won winrate would be much higher. But these are people that you will often see at a level for an extremely long time because they either a)cashout often or b) become complacent with the amount they are winning or c) stop trying to improve, and instead complain about not being able to mass table the next level up and win.