Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
Will Poker games continue to get tougher? Will Poker games continue to get tougher?

04-21-2014 , 09:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by denks
In poker money flows up the pyramid not down. So an enormous increase of players at the bottom will likely lead to an increase at the top - with stakes and game frequency increasing at the nosebleeds - however an increase at the top does not necessarily mean a trickle down to the bottom. Think of it this way, how does a few rich businessmen dropping $10mill to nosebleed crushers improve the games a 10NL grinder plays? Those nosebleed crushers are not going to proceed to drop down in stakes and lose it all to micro players. On the other hand a huge increase in micro players means a lot more of them shot taking and playing higher so the money can find its way up the food chain.
I agree, super rich businessmen entering the pool will not directly impact the lower stakes,. you are right, their money does not flow down the pyramid.

However, for every super rich businessman entering the player pool, there will be hundreds if not thousands of low ballers likewise entering.

And again, there will be a marketing magnifying effect. When it gets advertised that a $2M pot was won in an online cash game, that is going to get people excited and they will flock to the online site. Hell, if not for nothing else than to just railbird the game . And hell, once we railbird the game, why not deposit $50 on the site so we can play some of the tournaments and cash games so we can be just like them (albeit on a much smaller roll)?

Lastly, as big as gambling is in Asian Cultures, I just can't see a Poker Stars commercial or ad not attracting a ton of players once they show all the money to be won on that site. Then factor in the big tournaments in the area that will get linked with the Poker Stars (and other sites) tournaments.


This is my dream. The second poker boom. And I definitely believe it is not only possible but probable
04-21-2014 , 09:48 PM
Quote:
The average person thinks of poker as little different than blackjack or roulette-- You gotta get lucky to win. And even if they do believe skill is involved then they will believe in their innate talents, magical guts, and god given abilities long long LONG before they believe that they actually have to study

I take it you've never really talked to fish. Talk to a fish about studying poker. Fish take pride in NOT studying poker. Hell, in fact, they will often STOP studying the second they run into something that counters their fishy logic and how they believe the game is played.
Listen to this man - he speaks the truth!

Most won't read a decent poker book even if you gave it to them (I have tried this with a couple of good friends). I know some very intelligent people who would rather spend their energy looking for patterns in the cards coming out than learning any poker theory whatsoever. The average poker player (and keep in mind winning players are not average poker players) believes TV poker is the authority on poker fundamentals and anyone who suggests otherwise doesn't know what they are talking about. Poker to them is about working out whether the board is pairing or flushing more today and playing accordingly, putting your opponent on a hand, big staredowns and looking for twitches when you grab your chips. This is how the majority think.
04-21-2014 , 10:55 PM
I guess part of the problem is we are speaking about two different things. I'm talking about mid+ stakes games and you guys are talking about penny games.

Here's the thing. In 2002 Partypoker was airing commercials for their .COM site (there was no .net) during WPT. So people would watch a show where they didn't even know when a guy was betting a million that it wasn't a million in cash value. Then the host (i.e., "expert"), Mike Sexton, would cut to a commercial and it would be Mike Sexton doing a commercial for Partypoker, telling everyone that there was real money, you'd be stars like on the WPT, and that it was 100% safe. You could also use PayPal at that time. What better way to substantiate the legitimacy of a site than the host of the most popular poker show?

At the time, there were no NL games. The lowest games were 2/4 limit and two tables only of 15/30. Here's the important part: there was no difference between the bad players at the 2/4 games and the ones at the 15/30. The two 15/30 games had wait lists of 50, 24/7. The games were always higher than 50% vpip. A modest winner in the game would bring down over $100/hr two-tabling.

The economy was super strong, the gap between the lowest and highest stakes was small, and so was the skill level between the bad players in each game. When they opened up the 30/60 to two tables and added more 15/30, it was still the same. Plenty to go around for everyone, and the 30/60 games were insanely soft. When Moneymaker won, game on...

You're just not going to have a boom where penny players are going to trickle up to 30/60+ and the ones that want to play mid+ are not going to be ******ed about it anymore.

There's also no Cinderella story for people to chase like when Moneymaker bagged the ME. Where's all this new interest in this game? There's no guy with an unreal name that turned 40 into 2.5M to chase. Where's all this interest for this game of poker coming from? Most people rather play blackjack.

I'd love to be wrong, but we've been talking about the China explosion for the last 7 or so years, so there's other roadblocks, apparently, anyway. You guys are free to dream, go on. I will assert that you are letting your own personal biases impair your judgment.
04-21-2014 , 11:15 PM
I talked to a guy a few months ago that said he had roulette figured out
04-21-2014 , 11:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by striiing
I talked to a guy a few months ago that said he had roulette figured out
I have it figured out too, that's why I don't play it.
04-21-2014 , 11:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by denks

Most won't read a decent poker book even if you gave it to them (I have tried this with a couple of good friends).
100% agree with this. I know a few of my close friends who set up 2+2 accounts because I recommended it to them. Only to never see them post. I'm sure they don't even view this forums.

Also one guy who understands why doing something one way is better than the way he does it. Only for him to go back to doing it his way and putting his failures down to bad luck.
04-22-2014 , 12:02 AM
Sure we don't have the same friends? lol

Sounds like our experiences are identical. It's always the luck. It's always that they can "feel" the card coming. The strange part is I'm not talking about some uneducated hicks who don't know better, one of note that comes to mind has a masters in mechanical engineering and works in advanced research. Yet he just cannot accept that poker is based in mathematics like anything else he deals with on a daily basis. I have given him poker books. "common sense" is his reply - and never uses them. I have watched a couple of vids with him. "it's just common sense so I got bored" was his reply - without ever incorporating any ideas into his play. Why? Because the average player is not seriously interested in getting better, they want to prove that their skill right now is world class and they have no need to improve.
04-22-2014 , 12:12 AM
Fish are fish.

There was a riggie on one of my tables yesterday, whining about "Jokerstars" and so on. I don't normally tap the glass but after a few minutes of "Oh LOL of course rigged!" I said "So if it's rigged, why do you play here?".

Of course, he needed "real proof", but he'd just, like literally just said "SEE THAT SHOWS THIS SITE IS RIGGED!!".

Anyway I said it's not rigged and that it seems you get to win instead of losing when you learn how to play poker and then listened to him whine some more and then he lost another pot and typed some more invective into chat and ragequit.

But yeah...fish. If you believed, like actually knew you were being cheated, would you play in that game? I wouldn't.
04-22-2014 , 12:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by denks
Sure we don't have the same friends? lol

Sounds like our experiences are identical. It's always the luck. It's always that they can "feel" the card coming. The strange part is I'm not talking about some uneducated hicks who don't know better, one of note that comes to mind has a masters in mechanical engineering and works in advanced research. Yet he just cannot accept that poker is based in mathematics like anything else he deals with on a daily basis. ....
I have a friend who has a PhD in physics who plays the nittiest ABC poker in the universe and has been playing 2 - 3 times per week for two years.

It's amazing how he is oblivious to things like bluff frequency, semi-bluffing, and merging. He plays 100% face up ABC poker and gets mad at me for constantly raising so much .

He'll even say, "It's impossible for you to have so many good hands, you have to be FOS." yet even after saying that he will say, "But I can't call you. Keep doing that and eventually I will have a big hand." and then he'll fold.

that is when it really dawned on me how and why poker will always be juicy. Being smart is still not enough to overcome donk tendencies and fish inertia. This is why I always laugh my ass off whenever noobs talk about poker drying up and becoming unbeatable because of all the books and training vids out there.

Thankfully, fish gonna fish and donks gonna donk and the game will always be juicy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WereBeer
Fish are fish.

There was a riggie on one of my tables yesterday, whining about "Jokerstars" and so on. I don't normally tap the glass but after a few minutes of "Oh LOL of course rigged!" I said "So if it's rigged, why do you play here?".

Of course, he needed "real proof", but he'd just, like literally just said "SEE THAT SHOWS THIS SITE IS RIGGED!!".

Anyway I said it's not rigged and that it seems you get to win instead of losing when you learn how to play poker and then listened to him whine some more and then he lost another pot and typed some more invective into chat and ragequit.

But yeah...fish. If you believed, like actually knew you were being cheated, would you play in that game? I wouldn't.
I remember a few years ago I was at a table where these players were 100% convinced that PokerStars was rigged. They were deep into the conversation comparing notes and how they had noticed that PokerStars deals way too many 7s and Qs. It got to the point where they were like, "yeah man, every other hand they will deal a 7 or a Q and if you have AA or KK you will always lose to a 7 or a Q..."

So then I said, "Well, since you have figured that out then you must raise, 3-bet, and 4-bet shove all-in whenever you have a 7 or a Q and you definitely are all-in shipping when you get dealt Q7."

they then looked at me as if I were stupid and said "You can't shove with Q7 or call raises just because you have a Q or a 7, that is ridiculous."

I then said, "Well, you said they always deal 7s and Qs all the time therefore if that is true then you could exploit that by being aggressive whenever you have a 7 or a Q and definitely when you have Q7."

They then replied, "Well, obviously if you play Q7 or 7s and Qs then that will be the time they DON'T deal the 7s or the Qs because then they will figure out that you figured out that they deal too many 7s and Qs."

and they were dead serious.

Last edited by dgiharris; 04-22-2014 at 12:51 AM.
04-22-2014 , 12:55 AM
I prefer trolling the live games. You always get riggies insisting that online games are rigged "to increase rake". I reply, to glares from the dealer, that the casino auto shufflers are also rigged for the same reason. After all "yesterday I saw someone get their A-high flush beaten by a straight flush. So obv rigged".
04-22-2014 , 01:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dgiharris


I remember a few years ago I was at a table where these players were 100% convinced that PokerStars was rigged. They were deep into the conversation comparing notes and how they had noticed that PokerStars deals way too many 7s and Qs. It got to the point where they were like, "yeah man, every other hand they will deal a 7 or a Q and if you have AA or KK you will always lose to a 7 or a Q..."

So then I said, "Well, since you have figured that out then you must raise, 3-bet, and 4-bet shove all-in whenever you have a 7 or a Q and you definitely are all-in shipping when you get dealt Q7."

they then looked at me as if I were stupid and said "You can't shove with Q7 or call raises just because you have a Q or a 7, that is ridiculous."

I then said, "Well, you said they always deal 7s and Qs all the time therefore if that is true then you could exploit that by being aggressive whenever you have a 7 or a Q and definitely when you have Q7."

They then replied, "Well, obviously if you play Q7 or 7s and Qs then that will be the time they DON'T deal the 7s or the Qs because then they will figure out that you figured out that they deal too many 7s and Qs."

and they were dead serious.
This is absolutely hilarious! hahahaha
04-22-2014 , 01:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dgiharris
They then replied, "Well, obviously if you play Q7 or 7s and Qs then that will be the time they DON'T deal the 7s or the Qs because then they will figure out that you figured out that they deal too many 7s and Qs."

and they were dead serious.
Fish logic is best logic.

Quote:
Originally Posted by denks
I prefer trolling the live games. You always get riggies insisting that online games are rigged "to increase rake". I reply, to glares from the dealer, that the casino auto shufflers are also rigged for the same reason. After all "yesterday I saw someone get their A-high flush beaten by a straight flush. So obv rigged".
LOL, poor dealer, no tips and being trolled about rigging.
04-22-2014 , 01:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by denks
I prefer trolling the live games. You always get riggies insisting that online games are rigged "to increase rake". I reply, to glares from the dealer, that the casino auto shufflers are also rigged for the same reason. After all "yesterday I saw someone get their A-high flush beaten by a straight flush. So obv rigged".
I swear to god that I have noticed this trend starting up about 6 months ago. I predict that within the next two years it will gain traction.

There was this fish the other week who was wondering why the dealers didn't cut the deck once it was out of the auto shuffler.

I then replied, "The whole point of the auto shuffler is to ensure random mix of cards and speed up the game. If the dealers start cutting the cards, it completely defeats the purpose of each. Now you've introduced the human element back into it enabling someone to manipulate cards while also adding a step which slows the game down."

he then replied, "Yeah, but it makes the deck safer, the autoshuffler could be stacking the deck creating more coolers so the casino makes more money by rewarding bad play..."



effing donks. Seriously, *smh*
04-22-2014 , 01:24 AM
Interstingly my local does cut the deck after the auto-shuffler, as well as a short wash before putting the cards in. I'm going to push this riggie thing more now - the more I can get the unwashed masses thinking they lose due to bad luck / riggednez / whatever the less they think about the game itself.
04-22-2014 , 05:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dgiharris
IN your opinion,

do you see China getting a free and open internet anytime soon? lol, ain't going to happen over the next 30years+. They have a iron grip here on the net. When snowden was in the news, you should have tried to access foreign websites... even with a vpn this was almost impossible

Do you think China will ever get to the point where they don't block access to poker sites? Even if they unblock the net, there would still be something like 'gambling is illegal'

And if so, how many Chinese people will visit online poker sites? Out of that Billion population, is it too far a stretch to say that 100,000 people will flock to online poker sites daily?

I dunno, I like to build math models, and I just find it hard to believe that out of 1 billion people that at least 100,000 of them wouldn't filter down to online poker sites if they were given easy and legal access...

I have absolutely no idea... maybe, maybe not. I mean look at it from a other point of view. Africa has 1billion people aswell, how many of them do you see online? Like literally 0 players.. Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam and Bangladesh have a population of almost 700 million... once again almost 0 players. Disposable income... In china 90%+ of the population just makes enough to not starve.
*shrug*
x
04-22-2014 , 11:41 AM
Why do you guys seem to think that if you don't use or know about 2+2 that you must be a crappy player? A lot of pro players making tons of money online don't ever post here.
04-22-2014 , 11:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by drewwwy
Why do you guys seem to think that if you don't use or know about 2+2 that you must be a crappy player? A lot of pro players making tons of money online don't ever post here.
Huge difference between a pro who doesn't post 2+2 and a fish who doesn't post on 2+2
04-22-2014 , 12:35 PM
And the fact that literally every pro does know about 2+2 whether or not they post regularly.
04-22-2014 , 06:09 PM
Alright. That makes perfect sense.
04-23-2014 , 10:41 PM
Games will continue to get tougher as more countries get regulated out of the market & money harder to get online for recreationals.
04-24-2014 , 01:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Exothermic
Games will continue to get tougher as more countries get regulated out of the market & money harder to get online for recreationals.
Depends on where you life for example germany where i live has many fishy players with a solid income which i now share with all the russians etc. so i think personally at least thinking shortterm i would earn much more because a market where only germans could play whould have a way better fish to reg ratio.
04-24-2014 , 01:32 PM
Weird...I find Russians to be among the worst players.
04-24-2014 , 01:41 PM
It was just an example. I think its obvious that "poor" countries like most in eastern europe etc. generate more "regs" because for them its good money if they earn like $5/hour while not having many "rich" fishy player who can deposit real money on a regular basis. In comparison for example germany or the usa (if they had good onlinepoker) would be different i guess.
04-24-2014 , 06:18 PM
I read a link not too long ago mentioning how the canadian government would be putting tougher regulations on online gaming, does anyone here think it will be banned as it was in the us or is canada safe?
04-28-2014 , 04:26 AM
Don't think it will become tougher. But more new features will be added with time going.

      
m