Why would a weaker two pair with no blockers have higher equity against a flush draw? - Beginning Poker Questions

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Why would a weaker two pair with no blockers have higher equity against a flush draw?

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05-06-2011 , 01:50 AM

guitarizt

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 2,676

For simplicity's sake, the hand in question is ATss against A4dd. The flop is KdQdJc.

In stove ATss has 60% equity with a 56.6% win percentage to 34.4% win percentage for A4dd. I'm surprised how low that is for ATss, but the thing I really can't get my head around is why KQss does worse than KJss.

KQss only has 56.7% equity. KJss has 59% equity. I double checked this with twodimes.net and the numbers are the same as stove and I'm confused. What am I missing?

<note> The equities of KQss and KJss will flop flop if the board is KdQcJd and KQss will be the favorite. I'm using stove 1.23 and I double checked all the hands with twodimes.

Last edited by guitarizt; 05-06-2011 at 02:18 AM.

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05-06-2011 , 01:57 AM

HoosierKing

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 175

Quote:

Originally Posted by guitarizt

For simplicity's sake, the hand in question is ATss against A4dd. The flop is KdQcJd.

In stove ATss has 60% equity with a 56.6% win percentage to 34.4% win percentage for A4dd. I'm surprised how low that is for ATss, but the thing I really can't get my head around is why KQss does worse than KJss.

KQss only has 56.7% equity. KJss has 59% equity. I double checked this with twodimes.net and the numbers are the same as stove and I'm confused. What am I missing?

More straight outs with KJ than KQ.

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05-06-2011 , 02:16 AM

Jonny El

adept

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 810

Quote:

Originally Posted by guitarizt

Just put it into poker stove and got the opposite results which makes sense because the FD only has 8 outs versus KQ (ie no Qd) whereas it has 9 outs with KJ.

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05-06-2011 , 02:28 AM

guitarizt

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 2,676

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jonny El

Just put it into poker stove and got the opposite results which makes sense because the FD only has 8 outs versus KQ (ie no Qd) whereas it has 9 outs with KJ.

I messed up the first flop. I fixed it. Also it is against specifically KJ of spades and KQ of spades so they both don't have blockers to diamonds. It looks like it is considering that one of them has as blocker to diamonds and I'm not sure why. I'm also not sure why it would matter if the flop was KdQdJc versus KdQcJd. A4dd has a backdoor royal draw either way.

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05-06-2011 , 02:50 AM

Jonny El

adept

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 810

It's what I said but opposite. The FD vs KJ only has 8 [flush] outs because a Jd will give hero a full house whereas the Qd is already on the board so villain has 9 [flush] outs.

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05-06-2011 , 03:01 AM

Jonny El

adept

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 810

The backdoor straight flush is not even worth half an out.

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05-06-2011 , 03:12 AM

guitarizt

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 2,676

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jonny El

It's what I said but opposite. The FD vs KJ only has 8 [flush] outs because a Jd will give hero a full house whereas the Qd is already on the board so villain has 9 [flush] outs.

Oh damn nice can't believe I missed that.

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