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What Percentage of Poker is Luck VS Skill What Percentage of Poker is Luck VS Skill

09-02-2019 , 01:21 PM
Trap question for you guys or are we just all gambling?

How much of the game is skill and how much do you control the out come?

How much is skill(percent) in poker and how much is luck(percent)?
09-02-2019 , 03:06 PM
Poker is all skill over time.
09-02-2019 , 03:15 PM
Poker is about mathematical probability over the long run. If you lose a hand as an 85% favorite and never play again you could call it unlucky I guess but if you play 100,000s of hands that will only happen 15% of the time with some variance in either direction.

One person may lose with it 25% of the time over 100,000 hands and one may only lose 5% of the time over 100,000 hands but eventually if they kept playing math dictates is will level out.

There is no luck. You are making a wager on an outcome every time you make a bet. The skill comes from knowing what you are betting on and making less mistakes than your opponents.

i.e. having your opponent call a bet when they are more likely to lose, making your opponent fold when they are more likely to win.
09-02-2019 , 03:32 PM
How is this question a "trap"?
09-02-2019 , 03:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lozgod
Poker is about mathematical probability over the long run. If you lose a hand as an 85% favorite and never play again you could call it unlucky I guess but if you play 100,000s of hands that will only happen 15% of the time with some variance in either direction.

One person may lose with it 25% of the time over 100,000 hands and one may only lose 5% of the time over 100,000 hands but eventually if they kept playing math dictates is will level out.

There is no luck. You are making a wager on an outcome every time you make a bet. The skill comes from knowing what you are betting on and making less mistakes than your opponents.

i.e. having your opponent call a bet when they are more likely to lose, making your opponent fold when they are more likely to win.
So your saying they is 0% luck in poker?
09-02-2019 , 03:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Didace
How is this question a "trap"?
Because it's not an easy question to answer.
09-02-2019 , 03:48 PM
Luck vs skill definitely depends on sample. Over smaller samples, it skews heavily luck-based. Over larger samples, especially in lower-variance formats (like cash games or sngs), it's almost entirely skill-based. Some formats (like mtts, spins) stay luck-based over longer samples due to big scores skewing data sets.
09-02-2019 , 03:54 PM
"What Percentage of Poker is Luck VS Skill?"

I need numbers people.

Can someone tell me what is 1+2 =???
09-02-2019 , 04:06 PM
Is the earth round?
09-02-2019 , 04:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crich
So your saying they is 0% luck in poker?
luck - success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions

The success and failure in poker can be measured mathematically. If you look at the game correctly it involves zero luck.
09-02-2019 , 04:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lozgod
luck - success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions

The success and failure in poker can be measured mathematically. If you look at the game correctly it involves zero luck.
So again your staying that poker is 0% luck; do you really believe that in your mind?
09-02-2019 , 04:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crich
So again your staying that poker is 0% luck; do you really believe that in your mind?
Yes. If I am wrong then please tell me how. You are asking a question, getting an answer, then criticizing the answer. Is this an attempt at trolling or a serious question?

If you expect to win every poker hand you get involved with as the favorite then yes you are going to believe it is luck. If you look at bets as investments with outcomes based on mathematics and mistakes made by opponents then you understand it isn't luck. It is simply betting on an outcome that is guaranteed to happen an exact percentage of the time over millions of hands in a lifetime of playing.

EV
Pot Equity
Fold Equity
Pot Odds
Implied Odds
etc.

Every situation in poker can be mathematically proofed. That is why some players are good and some are bad. The good players know how to put themselves in the best situations utilizing EV, equity, and odds.
09-02-2019 , 04:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crich
"What Percentage of Poker is Luck VS Skill?"

I need numbers people.

Can someone tell me what is 1+2 =???
You think there's some mathematical percentage someone can give you about how much of "poker" as a whole is luck versus skill? Are you an idiot?
09-02-2019 , 05:33 PM
Poker is zero luck.

Ever seen a lucky guy with zero skill win the WSOP (or any other big tournament)?
No?
Me neither.

If you believe that luck plays even the tiniest part (unless you play a single hand and then never touch a deck, ever again) you're a fish.
09-02-2019 , 05:56 PM
About 38%.
09-02-2019 , 06:03 PM
The result of any one hand is 100% luck.
The result of 10,000,000 hands is 100% skill.
09-02-2019 , 06:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by antialias
Poker is zero luck.

Ever seen a lucky guy with zero skill win the WSOP (or any other big tournament)?
No?
Me neither.

If you believe that luck plays even the tiniest part (unless you play a single hand and then never touch a deck, ever again) you're a fish.

09-02-2019 , 07:32 PM
Look don't get me wrong poker is a game of SKILL at least some of it, but to say there is ZERO luck in poker is one of the stupidest things if not the at most stupidest things I've ever heard.

How can you say there is ZERO luck involved in poker?

Edit: In terms of Jamie Gold's skill level he must have done something right. I guess he's ok as a player who had a nice run. Heck even in sports shitty teams go on winnings streaks and winning teams game on losing streaks.
09-03-2019 , 02:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ad hoc


You just killed every possible argument that it is a skill game. This is damning evidence.
09-03-2019 , 06:42 AM
Poker is gambling with possibly an edge. By definition, you're betting money on an uncertain outcome. Lacking skill, it is -EV gambling just like other game. If you have skill, you have a chance of eliminating luck as much as possible but only in the very long run.

If you work 5000 hours at a certain hourly, you will have an exact dollar amount after that period. If you play poker 5000 hours, you have that amount plus or minus a potentially big number. The luck factor diminishes as a function of time but never disappears. For practical purposes you can reduce the luck to zero, but it won't ever be zero. If the universe hates you you will never make money at poker no matter how good you are.
09-03-2019 , 08:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Didace
The result of any one hand is 100% luck.
The result of 10,000,000 hands is 100% skill.
Not every hand is born equal. Winning a huge flip in a big ournament is different than winning a whatever flip in a local cardroom. One could say that those who can win the important ones are luckier, even though it's still a 50/50 situation.
Then again, I think it's stupid to talk about this topic in term of "percentages".
09-03-2019 , 01:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Iblis
Not every hand is born equal. Winning a huge flip in a big ournament is different than winning a whatever flip in a local cardroom. One could say that those who can win the important ones are luckier, even though it's still a 50/50 situation.
I'm not sure what your point is?
09-03-2019 , 02:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crich
"What Percentage of Poker is Luck VS Skill?"

I need numbers people.

Can someone tell me what is 1+2 =???
Why?

How will a number (I'll go with Artie's 38%) help you be a better poker player?

Each individual hand is determined by the random order of the cards in the deck and 52! is large beyond comprehension. So the result of each hand is dominated by luck.

Over a large number of hands, however, your ability to understand odds/probabilities and combine that with accurate analysis of why you opponents at taking the actions they are taking put in in a position to tilt the odds of success in your favor. So long term results are dominated by skill.

Poker is way more complex than just a number.

And if you need a number to "prove" to a naysayer that poker is primarily a game of skill, don't waste your time. he/she/they won't believe you anyway.
09-03-2019 , 03:51 PM
Quote:
ach individual hand is determined by the random order of the cards in the deck and 52! is large beyond comprehension. So the result of each hand is dominated by luck.
Only if you're playing your hand.

Notice how the best players aren't playing their hand? they are playing the range their opponents perceive they have vs. the range and predilections they perceive in their opponents.

Poker is only a game of luck if you're playing your hand and nothing else.
But that isn't poker.
That's bingo.

(And no: Jamie Gold did not just play his hands at the WSOP)
09-03-2019 , 04:38 PM
It's 10% luck, 20% skill, 15% concentrated power of will, 5% pleasure and 50% pain
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