Hi everyone,

I am pretty new to poker and still have a lot to learn.

I been on big downswing lately (variance and me playing like a donk) and trying to understand how the variance works in the long run.

So, I have a question.

Lets take following scenario which is pretty common in my game. Lets assume that I play against fishy villain and have a set, the board has flash draw, I bet and the villain flats in attempt to his his flash.

I know I have the best hand there, and the villain equity is 32-35%, so in the long run I should be able to win 6 out 10 in lets say 1000 hands with same scenario.

Does it means that even if I go all in and he decides to follow in the long run I will turn good profit from the scenario while playing a high variance in short term but making a profit in the long term ?

What would be your advice in this case, should I exercise a pot control and take less variance lines or should I play agressively and try to put entire villain and my stacks in middle of table ?

Thanks in advance.

IMO you are correct, that is exactly what it means. And since you are ahead with more equity in the hand than your opponent, you certainly want to "get it in". It really just depends on your mindset, your willingness to "gamble" and play that high variance, high reward game. Sometimes even I will slow down and see if the flush-completing card hits before I commit my chips... but realize that you cost yourself value because if villain misses, you can't valuetown them on a blank river.

I am not a good player either but you seem like you're on the right track to me... just a matter of your preference. GL

bvb? (joke)

It's not a matter of preference (unless you prefer losing money).

If your opponent has a flush draw and you are winning on the turn, and if you ship and he will call, you should always ship.

Your goal in poker is to maximize your opponents mistakes while minimizing your own.

Allowing him to see a free river is maximizing your mistake and minimizing his.

Thanks for the answers guys, I hope to hear more opinions.

Alizona

I was thinking about same that I should play aggressively when I know for sure that my opponent on the flash draw or straight draw.

cubase

Shipping it all on turn makes a lot of sense, villain has about 12-16% equity only, and we way ahead. I have a question, shipping it on flop when our equity is almost twice as his is it mistake or would it be right play as well ?

Technically, no. His equity will have been cut in half on the turn and so the more chips that go in on the turn, the better. And actually your equity is worse on the flop than on the turn. Go download Pokerstove and play with this.

But you are asking the wrong question... the question should be, if I ship 96.5bb into a 7bb pot on the flop will my opponent call?

Against all but the most insane opponents, the answer is no. And when they do call, you'll be crushed or flipping (but usually crushed).

As an extreme example, suppose you and your opponent have $1,000,000 dollars in chips. The pot is $1. If you ship your million, would you expect a call?

The best you can usually do is make close to pot sized bet. Against some opponents who are known to be loose and a little nutty, you can overbet the pot slightly and often get calls.

Bet-sizing is very player/situationally dependent and as you continue to learn, while you'll get tired of hearing "it depends" you'll start to realize that every situation comes down to analyzing many variables (assumptions) and then coming to a sound decision (calculated).

flush
flush
flush

In a cash game you should always be happy to get it in ahead. In a tournament things can get a little more complicated.

That being said, there are big potential downsides to "playing it safe" and waiting to get it in on the turn. ie; what happens when you're wrong and your opponent didn't have a draw? And many players may no longer be willing to get it in on the turn like they would have on the flop.

cubase, Cry Me A River

Thanks a lot for your explanations and for taking time to answer.
It is really gives some fresh perspective on my viewing how to play those kinds of hands.

I really appreciate it.