Trying to figure out pot odds - Please help
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 295
I'm not really looking for - you should have folded pre-flop and stuff like that I'm looking to understand pot odds better. I think my math is correct, but I'm not sure.
OK here's the situation...
.25/.50NL Full Ring Game
Effective Stks are $25.00
I'm on the button with 4d7d - It limps to me 4 ways to me and I limp in wanting to see a cheap flop (already getting 5.5-1 on a call - right?). The BB raises to $4.00 (wow big raise my friend) I put him on AA-JJ & AK AQs maybe down to 88 and he just wants to steal the limpers bets, plus the blinds. I was going to fold and then everyone calls. The SB folded before so if I call it will be the last bet before the flop. I think and decide to call hoping for a huge flop seeing $20 in the pot already before my call. If not I can get away from my hand very easily. The flop hit 8d4s10d - now I have a pair and a flush draw and a back door straigh draw. The BB bets out $8 - to me it looked like a very weak c-bet. It folded to me and I pushed all in for my remaining $21.00. If I'm up against AA, KK, QQ, or JJ then I'm a coin flip with 2 cards to come. I knew I would only get called by AA, KK, QQ, and JJ. So I know he will call with those hands, but with his weak c-bet looked like AK and AQs. I figure he will fold 50%+ of the time and then if he calls I'm still a coin flip and with $32 in the pot...
I'm getting 2.52-1 on a my money if he calls and I'm only a 2.28-1 underdog. Is pushing correct here? Remember I only have $21 left in my stk looking at $32 in the pot. Is this a positive EV move?
I also wanted to know if all my math is correct. Could someone please take the time to let me know if it is correct or help me understand better where my math is incorrect and an easy or more accurate way of coming up with the correct math.
How I got my math...
4 limpers all call $4, the BB raised to a total of $4 and I called for $4 = $24 pre-flop
BB - bet $8 on the flop taking pot to $32
I had a decent idea that he would call and a chance he would fold. If he folds I win if he calls I'm betting $21 to win $74 (74/21 = 3.52-1= 2.52-1 on my money)
I have a pair and a flush draw if he has AA-JJ like I think he does I'm vs. an over pair. I have 9 flush outs, and 5 2 pair/trip outs = 14 outs or 2.28-1 underdog (I also have back door outs if the turn is a 9 or 6).
So if I'm getting 2.52-1 on my money, but I'm only a 2.28-1 dog pushing or calling his push is the correct +EV move over the long run correct or am I missing something?
Last edited by BrentD22; 10-10-2008 at 03:23 PM.
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 5,720
This more than an pot odds question, it's an implied odds question.
You put in $4 into $24 pf which is pretty good calling/pot odds. But this represented nearly 20% of your stack. You do not have enough of a stack for the implied odds. You should fold 66 here let alone 74s.
You need to be a lot deeper here to call pf. Have you ever heard of the 5 & 10 rule?
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 295
No, please explain the 10/5 rule...
I'll be honest I was a winning player playing really tight poker and then I've tried some other strag to see what my results where. They've been worst a lot worst. I agree folding pre-flop would have been a much better decision, but is my math correct once I made the stupid decision of calling.
What I'm saying is that I was a pre-flop player only - raising and reraising where my tools when I had good hands. I'd multi-table 4 games and just wait for good hands. I wasn't a very good post flop player. The math of it was foreign to me. I'm now trying to figure it all out.
Are those pot odds that I stated correct (the math)?
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 5,720
Yes, your odds seem correct.
The first call by completing the SB is fine. You are putting in $0.25 which is 1% of your stack. Your call though of BB's raise is still good pot odds but it is now about 20% of your stack.
The rule of 5 and 10 is percentages of your stack (or your opponent's stack). You should not put in more than 10% of your stack on a speculative hand (or 10% of the stack you are playing against) since your implied odds will not be there. 5% is the lower limit where you are considering playing speculative hands. At 5%, you do not need to stack your opponent if you hit your hand. Less than 5% and you can play a wider range of hands depending on the hand, position, looseness of opponent, etc.
The important one to remember though is the 10%. You simply shouldn't be putting more than 10% of the effective stack hoping to hit a big flop (i.e. when you know you are behind).
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 295
Thanks...
To be honest this is a situation I find myself in too much I think. Flopping a pair and a flush draw when I know I'm up against what looks like an over pair or top pair.
I'm just glad that my math was correct. I did the math as quick as I could on paper during the hand. So let's pretend for a 2nd that I had $100 in my stk pre-flop and this same hand happened. Would pushing still be a +EV move here? I would think that if we are both deep that I'd win way more than 50% of the time even if the othe guy holds AA-QQ. I would also guess that I wouldn't have to stk him because I could afford to draw to my draw.
This poker stuff is tougher than people think. I have been playing for 3 years now. The 1st 2 I was a DONK hopatron and really didn't play with math just feel. I would attack weakness and bet for value well, but I know I was loosing some pots and wasting bets when I didn't have the correct odds or folding when I had the correct odds. I'm glad I'm starting to figure the math part out correctly. The 10% rule should help me as well.