I just posted about bigblind play... and posted my winnings chart which shows some swings about every 4-5K hands like clockwork.
Until a few months ago I only played 1 table at a time whereas now I play 4 tables at fast forward, so am playing 1K hands an hour instead of about 80.

so maybe since im playing so much more hands I am just not used to as many suckouts and such but here goes...

Regular variance such as AA getting cracked, set over set etc... is all whatever... but the type of hands Im referring to are the ones where I am ahead on the flop with strong hand or hit my draw and the villain either catches up (sucks out) or hits a stronger draw. Specific example would be slow playing sets on SUPER DRY boards and still getting sucked out on

I know it works both ways and im sure im catching up on villain myself sometimes, but it "feels" like these type of hands are happening too often?

Anyway, I will post some of the hands im talking about and just looking for some comments.
I think I am having a run of extremely bad luck but also playing the hands terribly?

first 3 hands are all the 22 hands in my database that hit sets and resulted in large pots. I lost them all.

This hand I had him on AA or AK by the turn and wasn't at all worried about the diamonds. He bets big on the river which makes sense with a flush, but the amount of times I see players at this level butcher AA and TPTK hands like this made me think my raise was for value.

the flop is disgustingly dry and a perfect flop for my set vs an UTG raiser with a ton of his range consisting of AA/AK that will bet in to me.

I guess I should have just raised the flop, or at least the turn... but as played what do you don on this river?

NOTE: regardless of my line, I flopped a set and lost to runner runner flush.





For this hand, since I hit set on turn my turn bet looks like im trying to take a stab at the pot, I felt his river bet could easily be a bluff or a value bet with some wonky 2P type hand. But again, as played I guess this shove is a mistake?

Note: Both flopped air, turn hits my set, river completes hits his 4 outer







3rd set with deuces, this time I don't shove, but same results.

NOTE: Flopped set, villain hits runner runner





again, my river play sucks fak

but aside from that, wtf is with the runner runner when I flop monsters! All these hands and these types of flops are where I should be winning stacks

reverse odds are killing me





ugh, again, turned a monster just to lose to a runner runner.







all these raises, cold calls etc... and recent runner runner crap I figure screw it, im jamming the flop

.... nope

notice the turn gave me a set YAY,, and now flush draw complete on the turn.

oh, the gutshot obv..




ok im ahead on flop, villain turns flush,,,,, wait.... wheres my river boat?







anyways, before anyone says anything I know my river raising/calling is brutal in some of these...

so for the purpose of this thread, please pretend I didn't butcher the rivers as bad as I did and just comment on how frequently you see this runner runner garbage, and the turn river action cards...

and more importantly, what should I do?

Leran to fold more?
keep betting for value against the donks that call with worse hands?
just FLAT more?

or full out aggression earlier in the hand to get rid of the garbage instead of trying to induce betting from these hands only to suck out

ok, im ready for a beating...

so basically you slowplay a bunch, let villain get there, and then stack off

you seem to massively overplay your sets

yea that about covers it.

I wouldn't say a lot, but I do tend to let villain bet into me on dry flops

should I be flatting these rivers or are some of them folds?

or should I just be playing them fast instead of letting them catch up

Just FYI, the turn actually hurt you:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

990 trials (Exhaustive)

board: k 6 4

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
4h 4d	98.08%	971	0
as kd	1.92%	19	0

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

44 trials (Exhaustive)

board: k 6 4 k

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
4h 4d	84.09%	37	0
as kd	15.91%	7	0

I'd go with this, since by taking such passive lines you're allowing yourself to get sucked out on. I'm not saying you should go the complete opposite direction and start just potting every street when you hit a set, but all of these hands have entirely too many "Hero checks" in them.

The first 4 looked like they contained the couple slowplay hands (not all 4 were). And they looked like good slowplays to me. Got unlucky.

i think you should bet bigger with your strong hands and be more aggressive on the turn.

the set with 44 on K4xK turnplay is not good. he´ll probably not fold a king even if you shove and you are not getting more value from non Kx hands by slowplaying.

the 4betsizing with AK oop vs 2 guys is terrible, either call 3b if you´re scared of stacking of with AK, or 4bet big and call a shove.

how big should I be 4 betting vs 1 or 2 vill

MP raise 0.62
BB 3bet to $2.25
4bet sizing IP / OOP HU / Multiway?

i would make it at least 7$ or 7,50$ in this situation. if it was vs 1 opponent i´d call or make it 6$. given the postions you won´t have much of a bluff 4betting range.
the sizing you chose gives them odds to call pretty much all of their bluff 3betting hands.

ok everyone, remember the beginning of this post... and the title "Suckout Frequency"....


the reason I was asking about frequency is because it just seems incredibly worse than "running bad" and also because it just seems to be happening soooo much to me ... whether I am on the winning end or losing and (although it is definitely more on the losing end)

ok, so I posted this thread yesterday after a few weeks of running into some bad luck over and over. Then I sit down yet again tonight after reading this thread for any new posts, and the following hands happened in exactly 25 minutes (235 hands into session)

this is about hand #10


BB is like 40/0/0 so I come along to see a flop and just 10 hand sin a get a very subtle reminder of how it feels to be 4 outted again






and this one, flush draws hit on the turn but he bets the river I didn't think flush for a second...

guys, I am not kidding, after the turn My range for him was exactly Qx with x being whatever comes on the river ffs.





ok so I review both hands I am still relaxed, I mean yea the first one he 4 outted me, and same with the second hand but he could have had a flush a lot there ... whatever, trying to just keep moving on....

but unfortuntaely the feeling of flopping a set and knowing I'm gonna lose is burnt into my brain by now and I'm literally sitting out on tables calling it a short f'n night.

but before I can sit out on that last table.... this happens

seriously.... I mean com the f*k on ...

Don't know what you want here OP, everyone runs bad sometimes but you are playing some of these hands non-optimally as well.

If you want advice on specific hands, keep it to one or two per thread, don't have results and cut out the complaints.

If you want to complain that you are running bad, post in the BBV forum, that's what its there for.

OP , one bit of advice. Most of us , and certainly most beginners, dwell on negatives like "suckouts" way too much. Maybe you are having a run of somewhat more of them, IDK, but that is just a normal flow in poker. Focusing too much on this NORMAL occurance can make you think it is happening more often than it should. This is human nature and a poker leak. The good news is that you can work on it as you play more and improve.

Stop calling raises with 22 in the SB, I can't imagine that you're going to make a profit in that spot on average.

Your postflop play seems okay for the most part. Stop just calling all pairs all the time pre. You're on a bad run.

the AT flop raise could be bigger as the board is pretty wet and you dont rep a whole lot anyway. i think river would be a decent fold against most players. but yeah, pretty unlucky as well.

honestly, badplay/tilt aside, if anyone can run a filter of all Straights/3ofaKinds/Flushes that went to showdown that looks like this.... then id feel better :P

it doesn't look as bad as it feels, but this is over 70K hands

and yea we all have bad runs, there are several throughout this 70K sample... but the one I'm on know is like a brick wall :P




this ones just pretty




no jokes aside, started my night flopping monster again, getting it in again, no luck. then dropped 3 straight buy ins on straight forward plays just bad luck.



I'm not looking to post in the BBV forum to get flamed (again). but some charts to see some of you regs going through this at the 25nl speed tables would be nice to see.

one question thgouh, for the guys who have played a ton...

Ive dropped 18 buyins in 6K hands , and am not longer rolled for 25NL. I have the funds to reload and keep going but not sure what I should do.

ive been in many spots before where I go down to help with confidence etc.... but some of these mistakes ive made recently in hands I am well aware of, but my bad luck/running bad is getting pretty gross and not sure if I should be moving down or taking a break.

again, some charts like mine with strong showdown hands suddenly not profiting like this would be nice to see if anyone wouldn't mind.

BTW: I have been running unbeleivebly hot with hole cards and huge flops for over 30K hands, they just never hold up. and I do have several hands where I sucked out in nasty spots myself.... hence the frequency post and reference to the 8+ buyin short swings.

Why? Say you get 20 graphs in response (you won't) how exactly does it improve your game if you are experiencing a completely standard swing or a bad one or a really bad one? Just focus on making better plays.

yea you are right and I know this.

you come across like a huge a$$ in both of your posts...

but yer right.

No he doesn't. What do you want to get out of posting here that you're not getting?

Assurance that his bad run is somehow worse than a normal bad run, as if "normal" exists.

It looks that way because he doesn't feed into the irrational thought of having to compare your luck to the next person. It won't make you a better player and it's not like you are going to be more lucky the next time.

To be a good poker player you need to be able to distance yourself from random outcomes of hands that you have no control over. I am not saying this is easy but you know as well as I do that if you had somehow won these hands this thread would not exist. That means you aren't really bothered by the way you played them, just that you don't like the outcome. The first thing that you should be thinking after you play one of these hands is "hmm what could I have done better" and go from there.

Yea sry guys, sry for the comment werebere


I appreciate the help guys.

I originally posted in the BBV forum but it's an interesting atmosphere there heh

BBV can be a bit disguising. The odds of getting told so EAD are probably 95:1 at the very least.

Once again I don't really blame you for questioning your luck, it's only human. However it is precisely the kind of thinking that is counterproductive and very tough to deal with in poker. Your results in the short term are very likely to not be representative of how you actually play and it is actually very frustrating. The way to handle this is to use responsible bankroll management and assess your play regularly. Don't just analyze the losing hands but also analyze your biggest winning hands, odds are there are some huge mistakes that just happened to work out and you got lucky.

In general; work on the spots you encounter most and go from there. There is no point in fixing your play when you turned the second nuts straight flush when you are losing tons in certain hands out of position. Since I really don't think some of those small pocket pair hands had any chance of winning money in the long run it might be ok to just fold them when you're out of position. They make virtually no money for a great player, let alone a beginner. And when variance is smacking you in the face, just focus on the decisions you made. In time you won't even care if you run set vs set or something stupid like that.

line check please guys.

I didn't put spoiler in but ill tell you villain had QJ....

this is a strange hand for me because I had a gut feeling (due to this bad run I'm having) that he had QJ on the river, but I convinced my self I was being to results orientated and got it in...

I feel good on all streets, but on river is this a check/call?

gah I feel like villains flop call is terrible, and turn call even worse