This is a follow-up to my thread from last night about my -10BI swing over my first 7500 tracked hands

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...d.php?t=250567


I am just curious if this is something to really worry about and if I should already be questioning my game, or if i should just continue to grind out another 15-30k hands and then reevaluate from there.

How incredibly standard (or not) is this graph for FR NL25?




Thanks guys.

EDIT: I should probably figure out a better way to upload graphs than using photobucket, but if there are any questions on what the graph says, just ask me and I can clarify.

might be standard, might be bad play, no way to know

Is there any other information that would make it easier to know one way or another?

post the hands that made your graph go down and up

10 BI swings can be standard.

But more times than not, there's bad play mixed in there because of tilt.

The higher your winrate, the less likely a large downswing is. It's likely you have numerous leaks which you should try to identify and fix now instead of waiting until you have played another 30k hands of the same game. Post hands in micro FR.

Read and post hands in the micro forum. Re-evaluate your play. -10 buy-ins over 3K hands at 25NL FR would have me very worried.

Follow the advice in this thread: The problem I have had with poker since 2005

no post the hands here. i want to figure out whats going on

What would be the best types of hands to post? I'd guess that the biggest losing hands are going to be coolerish hands often enough to not be that helpful, so what are some other filters to use to find the best hands?

I'll try to find some that I remember being tough, but if there are specific filters that can help find trouble hands let me know.

I'll also post my positional stats when I get home (which I'm leaving for in 45 minutes).

Post hands where you weren't sure what to do.

Post hands where you lost big pots with less than 2pair.

Post hands you think are non-standard or tricky in some way.

The best time to do this is while you're play or just when you finish. So you still have a good idea which hands need a second look.

Ok so here's my six most expensive hands. Its been a couple days since they happened so I put a little bit of commentary where I could.

I can put more hands later, but I actually think these six are a pretty decent cross-sampling of where I've lost a lot of money.


Hand One:

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $32.60
UTG: $21.70
UTG+1: $4.75
UTG+2: $7.45
MP1: $27.05
Hero (MP2): $39.80
CO: $15.25
BTN: $12.60
SB: $26.10

Pre Flop: Hero is MP2 with T T
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, CO calls $0.75, BTN calls $0.75, 1 fold, BB calls $0.50

(my standard EP and MP open raise, I know it could/should be $1 but I vary it between the two w/this type of hand)

Flop: ($3.10) 4 5 7 (4 players)
BB bets $7, Hero raises to $39.05 all in, CO folds, BTN folds, BB calls $24.85 all in

(I put him on a range of AcKc to Ac7c or 67 to possibly an overpair, but I wasn't going to get away from it so I didn't know what better to do than push here)

Turn: ($66.80) 8 (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($66.80) 9 (2 players - 2 are all in)





My opinion is there isnt much I can do here, it was such an overbet by him that I guess I could/should fold it but I feel like this can be AKcc or a crazy move with TP that I didn't know what else to do. Is this an easy fold?



Hand Two:

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP2: $15.25
CO: $56.00
BTN: $27.60
SB: $8.45
BB: $26.15
UTG: $31.80
UTG+1: $25.55
MP1: $30.35

Pre Flop:
UTG raises to $1, 1 fold, MP1 calls $1, 5 folds

Flop: ($2.35) J T A (2 players)
UTG bets $1.50, MP1 raises to $4.75, UTG calls $3.25

(This call was partially pot control and partially wanting to see a turn card before playing for stacks)

Turn: ($11.85) 7 (2 players)
UTG checks, MP1 bets $7.25, UTG raises to $26.05 all in, MP1 calls $17.35 all in

(at this point im pretty much commited if I'm going to keep going. He could have any ace and any two pair with this action but I don't know how to fold TPTK in this situation)

River: ($61.05) 2 (2 players - 2 are all in)





I feel like this is the kind of hand that good players can get away from, but I feel like I'll be folding the best hand here a fair amount of the time and don't know how to differentiate between when its a push and when its a fold.

As a side note, I've run HORRIBLY with AK for a really long time. When I win with it, it is almost always after missing the flop and winning with a c-bet. Usually I either miss the flop or have someone with a worse kicker that flopped aces up. In this hand I expected him to have AJ becasue of my pessimism but I played it confidently because I believed I should have the best hand here.....eh, I'm open to suggestions as to how to fold this.


Hand Three:

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $34.70
UTG: $24.75
UTG+1: $3.30
UTG+2: $25.00
MP1: $26.50
Hero (MP2): $28.75
CO: $59.20
BTN: $4.65
SB: $31.45

Pre Flop: Hero is MP2 with 4 4
4 folds, Hero calls $0.25, CO raises to $0.75, 1 fold, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($2.50) 9 9 T (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.90, CO calls $0.90, SB folds

(after he calls I'm done with the hand, I put him on at least a ten or maybe a FD)

Turn: ($4.30) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $3, CO calls $3

River: ($10.30) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $10, CO raises to $54.55 all in, Hero calls $14.10 all in

(he raised PF so I'm not putting him on 10 9, I figure A9 is most likely)





Pretty sure this is just a cooler, right? I don't love calling the raise but is there really a way to fold this?



Hand Four:

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP: $18.40
CO: $48.55
BTN: $4.15
SB: $46.25
Hero (BB): $27.00
UTG: $39.20
UTG+1: $24.40

Pre Flop: Hero is BB with A A
5 folds, SB calls $0.15, Hero raises to $0.50, SB calls $0.25

Flop: ($1.00) 4 9 Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.50, SB raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1

(put him on a queen at this point)

Turn: ($4.00) 2 (2 players)
SB bets $3.50, Hero raises to $10, SB raises to $44.25 all in, Hero calls $15 all in

(dont want to slowplay with draws out there)
Chilusa: raises $34.25 to $44.25 and is all-in (I don't think theres any way hes putting me on much, and definitely not aces, so I don't know how to fold at this point. I know I shouldnt be playing for stacks with one pair but I'm bad at judging how strong someone is when my preflop strength is pretty well hidden.)

River: ($54.00) 5 (2 players - 2 are all in)






I guess this is just a fold after the turn re-raise, but I feel like villian makes same move with AQ and maybe even KQ (I've seen it happen with both). I feel like if this is a mistake on my part it isn't a huge one given his possible range, but please tell me I'm wrong, I'd love to save the money next time


Hand Five:


Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $27.30
UTG: $28.45
UTG+1: $25.05
UTG+2: $5.50
MP1: $8.70
MP2: $11.40
CO: $3.10
BTN: $9.50
Hero (SB): $25.15

Pre Flop: Hero is SB with K K
UTG calls $0.25, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2, BB calls $1.75, UTG calls $1.75, 3 folds

Flop: ($6.75) 8 6 3 (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $5.50, UTG folds, Hero raises to $23.15 all in, BB calls $17.65

(I feel there are a lot of hands I have crushed here, and since he is showing a lot of strength I lean towards 1010 or JJ or maybe A8, I dont want an overcard to come to kill my action, and I want to get my money in good. I'm not unhappy when he calls here.)

Turn: ($53.05) 6 (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($53.05) A (2 players - 1 is all in)




I dunno about this, I feel like it was an inevitable stacking that only didn't happen because he didnt reraise PF. If an ace didn't come on the flop I was pushing it, and isn't that the right move most of the time?

I dunno, still feels spewy to me.


Hand Six:

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG+2: $15.35
MP1: $37.50
MP2: $27.20
CO: $25.05
BTN: $23.10
SB: $26.10
BB: $25.00
Hero (UTG): $24.65
UTG+1: $31.65

Pre Flop: Hero is UTG with T T
Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls $1, 2 folds, CO calls $1, 3 folds

Flop: ($3.35) 3 2 7 (3 players)
Hero bets $2.40, UTG+2 folds, CO raises to $5, Hero calls $2.60

Turn: ($13.35) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $8, Hero calls $8

River: ($29.35) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $11.05 all in, Hero calls $10.65 all in




I guess I could hav gotten away from this, and I don't remember my thinking process here...but I guess I must have felt like he wasn't strong the entire way. His actions seemed weird/suspicious to me and I check/called the river to allow the bluff part of his range to go for it instead of just pushing it.





So theres a pretty good sampling of where I've lost my monies. Those six hands alone took me from $70 winner to $100 loser. I know theres a lot more to it, and I'm sure better hands to explain my problem, but its a start. I think I have just been underestimating my opponents at this level, and hopefully the HUD will help with that somewhat. I don't think I'll be stacking off with TT in the near future.


Please be brutally honest with me. I have no ego in this and really just want to get better and grind my way up. Actually being good at something is so much sweeter than thinking I'm good, so be tough, I can take it.


And thanks again guys ( and 2p2 in general)really are incredible. I'm so glad I found this site.

Hand 1 is a fold on the flop without a good read, or better yet, recent history showing villain does this regularly without KK+.

Hand 2 I think you should check-fold the turn if the guy is at all solid or nitty. At worst, check-call. You try to 'protect' against draws too eagerly when you should be pot-controlling / slowing down / mucking.

Hand 3 is a cooler. Your flop bet is ineffective, though. Make it about half pot, then give up unimproved.

Hand 4 is another example where pot control might have been a better idea. This means that you just check-call as long as villain is firing. On the other hand, felting AA in a blind vs blind situation against a non-nit or non-reg or bad reg for 100 BBs is not really your biggest problem, so no need to re-think this particular spot too much. Except for pre-flop: please don't make conspicuous preflop raises with monsters, especially small ones. Unless there's a tard calling 10xBB opens routinely. Love those guys!

Hand 5. Make it a little larger preflop, but whatever. Check-raising the flop all-in is a convoluted move given pre-flop action, your holding, flop texture, and other factors. You're over-representing your hand, or assuming your opponent is a maniac who will call your shove with worse -- I take it he was not a maniac? Just bet the flop / most turns / most rivers until someone raises you, then decide if you can continue versus his range. Usually a call-flop / raise-turn line at full-ring from a non-fish = better than 1 pair.

Hand 6 is fine, except maybe you can fold the river, but it's a tricky spot. I think your line was +EV, especially if you have reads that villain will spazz out a little and bet your hand for you. Your opponent played it pretty badly, so make a note and get it in lighter against him in the future with overpairs on drawy boards. For example, if we had this read before the hand in question, a turn check-raise all-in might actually be better than a check-call line. I think others will have a better take than me on this particular spot in full ring 25NL.


All in all, it seems your downswing is not due purely to luck. Some of the actions you're taking and moves you're making seem sometimes misguided, sometimes excessive or unrefined relative to the particulars of flop texture especially, as well as opponent tendencies, and so on.

Post more hands, get more feedback, read the anthologies of micro-NL advice on these forums.

To reiterate what has already been said:

Raise the same amount with every hand you have, Aces, 23o, everything. (AA min raise is terrible)
Raise 4BBs + 1BB for every limper.

Don't remember what else I said, your post fried my brain, people showing me hands on messenger.

GL.

Grunching 'cuz this is already way long.

- Don't show results and don't tell us these are your "most expensive hands". It's likely to taint replies.



Hand 1

Why?

Stop it.

Uhhh.. What? Why would you make a huge overbet like this? You're turning a decent hand into into a bluff. The only hands that will call you are crushing you. What's more, villain's donk-overbet into about 12 players says, "I have a big hand that I don't know how to play and I'm scared of being outdrawn".

Unless I have a read that villain does this with a draw or 99 or some other crap, I'm just folding. Head's up on the flop or short-handed I could see felting this, sometimes, depending on villain, but multi-way at a full FR table I can't fold fast enough.

If you see him doing this all the time, then obviously you can gogogogo with TT. But otherwise, no.



Hand 2

If you're going for pot control, why would you checkraise turn?

What's more, by checking the turn if he is on a draw you've just given him a free card if he wants it. If you've decided to stack off you need to lead turn.

However, I hate stacking off with TPTK OOP at FR unless villain is a complete donk. If he's anywhere near reasonable he's just not playing for stacks unless he has you beat and there are a bunch of hands he could have here TJ/AT/AJ/KQ. This one really needs reads.



Hand 3

If you're going to take a stab at the flop, make a real bet, like $2. That bet is just ridic.

When a preflop raiser checks the flop and later wants to play for stacks it means he's flopped a set or better. This is damn near 100% unless villain is super, super tricky. Which doesn't make folding a full house even easier. I'd be surprised if anyone at 25NL could fold there which basically makes this a cooler.



Hand 4

Preflop makes me physically ill. Never do that again. You got what you deserved.

Just call the turn and try to get a cheap showdown. Stacking off with an overpair when you let him see the flop cheap is super-fishy.

If you put him on a queen, what kind of draw do you put him on? He can't have the A. You have it.



Hand 5

I'd probly actually raise more preflop just to be sure to thin the herd more because with so many limpers you're likely to get a bunch of callers and you're OOP which is gonna suck. As much as $4 even.

Why check the flop?

On the flop, once again, I don't really understand these big over-pushes of yours, particularly with overpairs. Granted I've played like no 25NL but is anyone actually calling these with hands you beat?

Unless you have history with villain (ie: he's been floating you a lot and/or raising your cbets a lot) and you're looking to make a statement, this kind of move doesn't make a lot of sense.



Hand 6

This one is reads again. I actually have a note on my monitor that reads "Never call with an overpair". That's not 100% true, there are WA/WB spots. But mostly if you're just calling with an overpair it's because you already know you're behind. This is particularly true at full ring where so many players will not call raises postflop without a big draw and/or something that beats a 1 pair hand.





Why do you always put players on hands you can beat? Why do their ranges never include hands that beat you?

Thanks for the replies, I definitely got some good insight.


As for the AA minraise...i know i know, it was stupid and it wont happen again ....everyone folded to the SB who limped, and I was in the BB and didn't want to check but didnt want to bet him out.....fully aware that its wrong, dont really know why i did it but it WILL NOT HAPPEN AGAIN


I think my biggest problem is overplaying one pair hands (I actually looked it up in HEM and its my biggest losing hand...not really a surprise after this )




"Why do you always put players on hands you can beat? Why do their ranges never include hands that beat you?"

I don't, its just that I happened to these 6 times, hence why they are my 6 biggest losses. I often put people on ranges that beat mine, including in the TT hand (I put his range on overpairs among other things like NFD and TPTK).



"I don't really understand these big over-pushes of yours, particularly with overpairs. Granted I've played like no 25NL but is anyone actually calling these with hands you beat?"

I think this is just a badish habit I've gotten into playing micros, because I will get paid off a lot by TPTK and lower overpairs, so although its likely a mistake , I don't think its as big of one in the micros as it would be anywhere else (where I wouldn't and dont do it).






The idea of playing very aggressive is one of the newest concepts I've incorporated into my game, and I'm still (clearly) pretty rough around the correct spots to do it. Also the fact that I think I underestimate my opponents at the micros (although I've seen a lot of insanity that pushes me that direction...people re-raising allin with middle pair no kicker on an ace high board for ex.) and that causes me to raise-spew too much.




You guys have helped out a lot, and I feel bad posting any more stats or hands unless you guys are curious. I'd love the help of course, but I've definitely gotten some good stuff out of this thread and wouldn't mind if you guys were done with it too.


In any case, thanks a lot. Finding 2p2 was definitely +lifeEV

Feel free to post more hands. Don't post so many at a time though, or separate them better. Something.

Thanks cruzer. BTW, you are my avatar hero.



Here's a hand from a session I am currently playing. Curious what you think is the right move here.


Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG+1: $16.35
UTG+2: $4.65
MP1: $25.50
MP2: $7.70
CO: $25.35
BTN: $12.15
SB: $37.45
Hero (BB): $46.15
UTG: $25.10

Pre Flop: Hero is BB with 6 8
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.25, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.25, SB calls $0.15, Hero checks

Flop: ($1.25) 7 8 5 (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.75, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $0.75, BTN folds, SB folds

Turn: ($2.75) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, MP1 calls $1.50

River: ($5.75) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $5.50, Hero calls $5.50

there's a big leak in ur game imo

a year or 2 ago i played 1-2nl live and was confident i was playing correctly, with good reads and a solid knowledge of the game.

I backtracked where i lost most of my $ and it was always situations where i made poor decisions with big pocket pairs.

I fixed this seemingly small problem and did well ever since.

Perhaps u have a similar prob -_-