I know HU is the worst but what about 9, 18, 45, 180? Are they all the same or do they differ?

thought this was going to be a question about slow/turbo/hypers, sng for me = 1 table

less players = less variance

The larger the field, the longer the downswings when you're running badly, and the bigger the upswings when you hit a hot streak. e.g. in a 180-player game between equally skilled players, you're only expected to win 1 tourney in 180 (and that win will create a big boost to your bankroll), but if the prize pool only pays 15% of the field, you're going to lose a buy-in 85% of the time, so it's very common to play 10 or 20 in a row without cashing. In heads up games, you should win around 50% of the time. It's pretty rare to lose more than 10 "flips" in a row.

Factors that increase variance

1. Shorter levels
2. Aggressive blind structure
3. Rebuy
4. Low entry fee
5. Bounties
6. Low starting stacks (relative to blinds)
7. Short-handed play or 6-max play
8. Low non-economic cost

In my opinion, the field does not have huge impact on the variance, unless you couple a large field with the ability to rebuy. then, some players play extremely loose in an effort to double up fast to get a piece of a big prize pool. The other consideration is the low non-economic cost. A person who has invested a couple of hours into a MTT SNG will play more conservatively than a player bombing away at a 9 person turbo SNG.

So if I was to use an aggressive BRM approach to build bankroll (20-30 buy-ins) then the best thing I can do is play lower fields or heads-up?

Variance is a function of expected winrate or edge.

Husngs are low variance - it's rare for a 53% ev itm player to have a losing 2k sample.

You can simply use the kelly strategy for husngs. 1/ev roi gives you your optimal bankroll growth strategy. So 3% roi you would use 33 buying and move up and down accordgly. You can tweak that to suit your comfort level accordingly


Low stakes husngs are very beatable with lots of free material available that will assist in that. $15 becomes more reg heavy and you will need registration software to avoid regs. Above $15s you can't avoid regs without beating them over a significant sample as they protect their lobbies.

But the low variance high hourly provided by husngs remains very appealling, esp for bankroll building from low stakes

HU is the best, not worst.

teddybloat gave an A+ explanation.

Arguably the "best" way to build from a small bankroll with low variance if you're a beginner is to play Double or Nothings (DoNs) or Fifty-50s (on Stars) and just play super-nitty. Since they pay half the field, it's hard to go broke if you only have 20 buy-ins, since you'll cash in about half the games just from idiots being idiots. The ROI is really low in those though, as in the $1.50 games, you'll only make about 10 cents in 20 minutes if you play 2 tables.
HU games would be OK, but that's a much harder game to learn.

Standard 9-player SnGs are good bankroll builders too, as they pay a third of the field. The problem is the same as before though: With a third of the field getting paid, you'll cash reasonably often, but you never win a "large" prize, so the average ROI is very low, and you'll often find yourself exactly where you started (no profit, no losses) after about 100 games. With MTTs, the risk:reward ratio is much greater (you risk one buyin, but can win 45 or 50 - or whatever it is - if you get first place) but the greater risk:reward ratio implies greater variance, because you win the big reward much less often if there are multiple opponents.

To use a real world example, many recreational players enter the $10,000 WSOP Main Event, and describe it as a "once in a lifetime chance" to become a millionaire. To be "properly rolled" to play the main event, you'd really need a bankroll like $1,000,000 (100 buyins), because you've got to get through a minefield of 6000 players, and you only have a 10% chance of making the money. The additional problem is that you're unlikely to get the chance to play the Main Event 100 times in your lifetime, even if you're properly rolled for it. For most people, it's not feasible to pay $10,000 every year if there's only a 10% of making a profit, so playing the ME is really "taking a shot", almost like a very expensive lottery ticket.
You've got much better chance of achieving your true ROI in small games with a higher proportion of the field getting paid.