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Simple maths, halp

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07-26-2009 , 02:20 PM

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old hand

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 1,649

X open-raises 50% of the time when it is folded to him on the button.

When he gets 3-bet by the big blind, X 4-bets 15% of the time.

When the big blind 5-bet shoves, X calls with TT+, AK, which represents 3.5% of all possible hands. (X always 4-bets these hands when facing a 3-bet.) He folds everything else.

When X 4-bets in this situation, what % of the time does he have a hand that he will call a 5-bet shove with? Is it just 3.5/15 x 100, or is the fact that he only opened 50% of hands to begin with relevant?

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07-26-2009 , 02:41 PM

meow_meow

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Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 3,167

I guess you need to make the assumption that he is always betting the strongest x% of his hands.

He opens the top 50%
He 4 bets the top 15% of the top 50% (7.5%)
So his 4-betting range should be 3.5/7.5 = 47% TT+, AK

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07-26-2009 , 05:06 PM

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old hand

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 1,649

Thanks meow!

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