Hello, I have finally admitted to myself that math is my weakest spot in NLH. So I have been researching, and I just wanted to make sure that: my math is correct, and I understand the overall meaning of everything. and any extra tips or insight would be very much appreciated.

So I took the first hand I went all in with, in my latest tournament.
Current pot: ~1200
Eff Stacks:10,000
Flop: J83
Hero: KK
Villains perceived range: QJs+, A2+ (-Ak, AQ), KT, KQ

In pokerstove I have 60/40% equity over my opponents range,
6(1200+10,000)= 67,200
4(1200+10,000)= 44,800

First, besides this is telling me that I will be winnning X amount of chips overtime. What else can I gain through this? does this tell me I should be going all in every time I am + chips? Or if someone has such a high equity, should I be trying to peel turns?

In short, I think I know how to calculate, but I don't quite know what to do with the information. Or what to do to advance with this.

If i am unclear or you need me to rephrase something please ask, thank you for the help.

To be complete, your analysis should include complete preflop and flop action, as well as an expected value analysis of checking, which may or may not be the most profitable play depending on what your opponent will do with certain hands that he may or may not hold.

That said, any analysis of a poker hand is going to be flawed because of the assumptions that we must make. The more correct our assumptions, the better the math will work for us. The more incorrect our assumptions, the more useless the math becomes. I suggest that you study here on 2+2 by posting often, which will in turn improve your ability to range opponents for a wide variety of situations. This will make the math more useful to you.

Absolutely +1, and thank you. I have actually been playing for about 7 years now, and I have finally have adjusted my thinking in a winning way. I have been reading many books, some forums, watching countless hours of Tv and stream play. I feel like I am one of those players who plays fairly correctly with out good reason. I have a large experience to know if something will work more often then it doesn't or vise versa. I just can't mathematically explain my decisions.

It is actually very funny. I believe I went backwards in what i should have learned first. I have thought so much about theory, and going through hands optimally, etc. I have started to see a massive upswing at the start of 2015, and I read a lot of psychology books, etc. and really decided that i don't know squat about "deep" math. I know basic hand value equity, outs, all that basic math I am 90 percent gold with.

I have been reading A LOT of these forums and just going through all the starter basics about hand ranges, calculating equity vs ranges, etc.

That is a little bit about me, for a hand like this what else do you need to know? I know this opponent can only have these hands due to the action (sorry I guess i should have explained).

66$ online tournament
Villain:~12,000 covers H (120bb)
Hero:~12,000 (120bb)
blind 50/100
UTG min raises, UTG+1 calls (V), folds to hero on the bttn, Bttn raises to 675
with KcKd, folds through UTG, UTG+1 calls.
-At this point, I have not played very much with the V but I think we can range his hands pretty easily due to the action.
PF: I will could give this sticky opponant 55+, AXs+, KTs+, ATo+, KQo, Qjs
Pot: 1700
Flop: Jc8d3d
V bets 1100 (I think we can take 33-88 out, leaving Qjs, Axdd, KTdd+, 99+) but I really don't think he would bet with 99/TT, he would have raises JJ pf.

^^Its fast and I am sure sloppy. Maybe you can help me clean up my ranges, which I have been doing ever sense i bought poker cruncher for my phone.

No ego involved ^ just want you to know I am quite experienced, just had a very sloppy set of ranges for years and didn't want to do math. So any help would be awesome. thank you.

I am still reading through all the beginners forums. Because I think my game was built on "sand," and I need to really work on math, range, and odd fundamentals. I am reading a lot of WCG riders posts, all the frequently asked questions that aren't obvs for me.

I have a little excel sheet that does most of the common calculations for me, it's awesome.

For example it lets me calculate how often someone should fold and/or what equity I need to have if he does continue. It tells me how much an opponent needs to have in his stack to call without immediate odds etc etc. I made some push/fold charts against various strategies.

Give me a minute and I'll do some math on that hand, I think your ranges are slightly off.

Ok so you've made some assumptions (which you should in poker) about UTG+1, I don't know this player so I cannot tell you what he does or does not play.

If it is the case that he calls the PFR with 55-TT/QJs+/KTs+/KQo/A2s-AJs/ATo-AQo, there are a few hands that could make a pretty big difference if he does or doesn't have them.

First of all, can he have 33 here? Or JJ for that matter, it's an UTG raise and live 3bets are rare, I think it is perfectly viable that he can have either of those hands. Also live players like suited cards so I'm going to add in Q9s+/87s/97s+/T8s+ at some point.

Scenario 1: He has exactly the hands you've said, TT-55, AJs-A2s, KTs+, QJs, AQo-ATo, KQo. First of all we have 80% equity against that entire range on that flop so things are looking good. If he donks then it's important what hands he chooses because it makes a big difference. People love to donk top pairs and stuff like that, sometimes flush draws too.

If he donks every top pair + FD in his range:

37.40% 37.40% 0.00% KJs, QJs, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d
62.60% 62.60% 0.00% KsKc

If he donks only top pairs:

18.03% 18.03% 0.00% KJs, QJs, AdJd
81.97% 81.97% 0.00% KsKc

Funnily enough, if he only donks flush draws:

47.08% 47.08% 0.00% AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d
52.92% 52.92% 0.00% KsKc

Now what do we want to do? If we call we keep in his top pairs which we crush. If we call we also let diamonds or nasty cards come on the turn. Still with more than 50%+ against even his strongest equity hands in there we can go ahead and raise and let him decide what he does. Note that there isn't a single hand in there which beats us.

Now let's take a look if he also donks his (only) set in that particular range and combine it with flush draws.

59.26% 59.26% 0.00% 88, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d
40.74% 40.74% 0.00% KsKc

Oops, do you see where I am going at?

Let's take my range which is a little more expanded but I think pretty realistic. It would look like this:

JJ-22, AJs-A2s, KTs+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, AQo-ATo, KQo, it's still only 15% of hands which for a live game is pretty normal in this spot.

Ok so we know we are ahead when he donks his top pairs so going to ignore them. Let's take a look what happens if he bets all his hands that beat you and flush draws:

63.55% 63.55% 0.00% JJ, 88, 33, KdQd, AdJd, QdJd, AdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, Qd9d, Jd9d, Td9d, Ad8d, Td8d, 9d8d, Ad7d, 9d7d, 8d7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d
36.45% 36.45% 0.00% KsKc

Ehm well that sucks.... If he then also donks his top pairs then we move up to 45% at which point you're not in that bad of shape. The important thing is what we do now. I think it's still a bad idea to fold on the flop but with that much out there we can't really get it in any more and be happy about it. I think the correct play in this instance is to just call flop and wait for a safe turn. If let's say the 2h pops up we go back up to 46% equity and then with the pot out there we can go ahead and get the money in.

You see how radically things change by assuming a few hands more or less?



Edit: forgot to include KQdd in some instances. It's not that important though, only 1 combination so it shouldn't make a difference.

Kelvis, that is awesome man. Thank you so much for the time it took you to do that. I bough/DL poker cruncher for my phone. and have just been going nuts for 3 days straight playing with opponents ranges vs hands, pre/f/t/r.

I normally play my hand the way you suggested, and very rarely do I jam all in on the flop with a single pair like this. I just thought this could be used as an example to explain to me the more in depth math in these spots. Thank you for the range clean up, and explanation on it. The reason my opponent doesn't have a set is because I have played with him for over 4 yrs and know he would never donk lead his strong hands, he always (I hate that word) c/r them. I will never be surprised if he shows up with a set here, and gladly adjust my ranges. but he hasn't given me a reason to change my thought on him.

Again sorry for bad information. I was only posting to give an example of how I am doing the math, and to be corrected if need be. When i posted i was just confused when I get like AKo vs an opponents range and I have 60% equity vs it. does that mean its always a bet, or what else can we learn/do with this information. Secondly I have been playing/studying a lot of tournaments. I always see equations being done on the tables, and I was just wondering 1. what those small equations were. like is it profitable if we know our opponents range, they are all in, and should we call with a wider range due to odds, etc.

This is cleaning up years of bad habits. Thank you very much.

It might have been bad to do and hopefully no confused but I started with an overall hand range, and as soon as we hit the flop, I deleted hands, thinking how he plays those groups of hands, or if he would even continue with them, etc. That is why I said weird hands like 44-88 or something x).

Not sure if I understand correctly but basically you need to be narrowing ranges every instance you get new information. If he doesn't ever ever donk sets, just remove them from his range as soon as he donks that flop.

If that is the case then there isn't a single hand that beats you on the flop, you can then decide to keep his weaker hands in or to raise and get the money in. This depends on what hands he ever folds, if he folds flush draws but not pairs then this is an insta-raise, if he only continues with his drawing hands but not his pairs then you are only slightly ahead and might want to take a safe card on the turn.