Is my play correct? I don't want to see a river w/ lots of money behind do I ?Winning Poker Network - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 67 BB
BB: 88.5 BB
UTG: 101.5 BB
CO: 267 BB
Hero (BTN): 98.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8 8

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) 3 9 8
UTG checks, Hero bets 5 BB, UTG calls 5 BB

Turn: (17.5 BB, 2 players) 2
UTG checks, Hero bets 90.5 BB and is all-in, UTG calls 90.5 BB

River: (198.5 BB, 2 players) 7

Thanks ! MMMMMMMMMMMMMmKay appreciate the help

seems terrible, just bet 30c or something that'll deny odds for whatever draw he hit on the river

Agreed, shoving turn pretty much guarantees we win the least we can (when villain folds) and lose the most we can (when villain calls and is ahead/binks).

A normal turn bet there saves us at least 80 BBs.

see I have heard a lot of times the expressed logic of will worse hands call will better hands fold.

In this spot i think worse hands can call, and better hands of course are going to call and that's kind of a cooler is my thought process off?

what would u call there with?

Strewth BQ is friendly these days (as it should be!)

Op, your play here is dreadful as is your thought process. Read a good primer

there's nothing wrong with the thought process of wanting worse hands to call. it's the conclusion that people would call 5x shoves that's lacking a bit of common sense.

^^

True, but how does this help an absolute beginner? These sorts of injects appear all over BQ all the time. They serve to confuse beginners by suggesting their play had some merit (9/10 at nano stakes, where they should be putting in to practice what they are learning...not trying something akin to FPS).

Op needs to know basics and first principles. In this case how to build a pot with a good hand, how to extract value from different villains etc.

Ops shove on the turn is horrible as is the concept of betting for protection with a set on a pretty great board.

He needs to know why. He can learn how to exploit a drunk fish later.

villain called so he did something right...

Yeah.

Op's play is awful in general but against a fish who likes to call overbets with random draws why not. The question is: with what part of his range does he call such an overbet ? I mean, we don't want him to fold one pair type hand. If you know he's going to call with any 9x and overpair, then your play is probably right. Else it probably isn't.

This is the wrong question to ask when making a play that is non-standard.

OP, I suspect the hands you are worried about are the flush draws and the straight draws.
On this turn you are still almost certainly ahead and the hands you are worried about are actually quite good for you. You have about 80% equity over these at this stage and these are some of the hands you want to get some value off.

If you shove here a good opponent that feels they are behind would need to have about 45% equity to break even calling this shove. They may see the shove as some sort of bluff but usually most hands will just fold, even the good draws should.

You have hit hard and you want to try to get as much in as possible, preferably as early as possible. Try to read the board and put the opponent on possible hands and judge which ones will pay off.

If the opponent just has overcards they won't pay much at all.
A pocket over pair will pay some but these would have quite often check raised on the flop, so not so much chance of these, possible but to be 'discounted'.
Pocket 99 and this is just a cooler that shouldn't occur all that often.
How many TJ hands get into the utg raise, suited ones mostly.
A9 K9 etc, A3s (and A8 but we have two blockers) may be present somehow.
98s (but again we block these)
76s
67s may be in there.

Most of the hands that will pay you are the drawing hands and top pair and I think you should concentrate on trying to get the max out of these.
We want to bet as large as possible that should get called and as these draws aren't going to pay off unless they hit on the river this turn bet may be the last chance of value.

If you think they will call a shove with a good draw get it in but I think this is too optimistic. Maybe pot or a bit over is more reasonable at this level.

When the 7 hits it is just unfortunate and you would have to think it through as most of these draws have got there. If you face a river shove after a 20bb turn bet you need to have about 70.5/198, or 35% hand equity to call.
Would any hand other than a flush or straight shove the river? Maybe the odd bluff but you would have to usually fold and lick your wounds at this point.

Someone more experienced can correct me here:

The play was wrong. The opening call was ok in my opinion, but the play on the flop seemed off somehow. When the flop hit you with a an eight to complete you set I would have bet strongly. Given the fact that the villain simply called and did not show any strength until the river leads me to believe that he/she was not confident in the hand at all post flop. So the continuation bet on the flop should have been a strong raise. With a Hand like 88 I would not want to see a turn; I want to get my money while I have the best of it.

Of course, I could be totally off here, but that is what BQ is for right?

why?

Results oriented thinking is bad, m'kay?

If I have a good read that villain will call off a 5x pot bet shove and he does, then this isn't results oriented thinking.


Because insane plays like these do not require sane rationalizations; they require an insane opponent. The times I make a very non-standard play are tailored around how I think my opponent will react, not how I would react in his position. Against a similarly thinking opponent such as yourself, then it makes sense to put yourself in his position.

Did you read the post I was replying to?

Yes, he was making a joke. How does that change the veracity of my post?

There's a funny thing about overbetting; it doesnt have to work as often to be profitable. If you can get your opponent to ship his stack like this 1/10 times you are probably doing better than making traditional value bets across 3 streets, especially if he's the kind of player who always folds the river. Fish are quite simply more apt to pay you off sooner rather than later. Heck they may even have no draw at all and call a shove with just a pair because it tilts them to see you bet like this.

This is exactly the situation I was just in, I bet pot on the flop after catching top set with a flush draw on the board. The turn was a blank, I over bet 2.5x pot, unintentionally leaving him 35 cents behind. River completed the flush and he donks out his remaining 35 cents, of course I have to call as the pot is way to big and 35 cents is insignificant in comparison to the pot size but it was pretty obvious he caught.

I am not posting this as a rage/bad beat - I am posting this because your saying over betting when an opponent is obviously on a draw is somehow wrong? I quoted the above because yes, he should fold to the over bet, the thing is...that they don't.

I understand the argument of "what do you call here with?" however I am not them. I fold my draws when I am not given odds to call, the majority of the player pool simply does not so why not abuse them when you think they will call regardless? By over betting the turn I remove any tough decisions when the river completes the flush? As this is something I struggle with often, letting go of sets when a flush completes and villain shoves. Somehow I feel "they are just repping it" and make a crying call. I recognize this is a leak but by committing myself on the turn by over betting it removes the tough calls. At least I think...

I do realize that I am not extracting value from the players who understand pot odds. These are by far the minority of the 5NL players on the site I play on, is my thinking incorrect by over betting turns? Please explain why.

good play against fish lags, who can't fold, any draw and get tilted when you shove them. Definitely a great play to have up your sleeve against specific players. Lots of theory talk here, but if you play a lot against these types of players you would know it works quite often, and gives you a good image, allowing you to do with bluffs.

Yes. Your goal to make decisions easier should not be a driving factor in poker. You could just shove allin preflop with AA every time and have a real easy decision, and you will probably get called on occasion too! But you're playing a multi-street game where decision making processes are simply part of it. Overbetting for value is a good strategy and should be targeted directly at certain players. You should be happy when they call and sad when they fold.

What you really need to realize is that it's ok to fold the best hand sometimes. You arent a mind reader, and you will make mistakes. I guarantee you a fish will rep a flush and make you fold a set one day. He might not even be trying to rep the flush, he may just be betting top pair, which really stings. But of course you wont know this most of the time.

The point is the pots you incorrectly fold are more than made up for in the pots you win after stacking these same players. I actually had a tilted fish switch seats on me by moving directly from my right to my left. So he understands position, great. Within 3 hands he shows me an airball bluff on a 4 card straight. Thats cute, because about 30 minutes later I stack him anyway and he quits. He took maybe 50BB's off me and I took everything he had. So dont sweat the small stuff.

You missed a lot of my post, or I worded it poorly. I do appreciate the reply but it was rather basic and not really responding to the question.

My goal isn't to simplify river decisions, it's just a perk of the over bet. On to a reworded version of my previous question.

If the opponent is seeing 90% of the rivers after calling the flop, why not over bet the turn? I understand that this is the exception to the rule, ideally you want to price them out of their draws but not in such a blatantly obvious way. The fact remains that at 5nl people are, well, dumb. For lack of a better word. They will call huge over bets because they "feel" like they are running good/lucky and will catch. How is it incorrect to punish this way of thinking by laying them even worse odds?

Now if you would please correct my thinking, if you still feel it is incorrect that is. It would be appreciated!

If an opponent is going to call the turn 90% of the time regardless of how much you bet on the turn, then 100% of the time you should put your stack in on the turn, if you figure to be ahead.

The problem is you are way, way, overestimating that 90%, and 90% of your post was talking about removing difficult river decisions, so that's the response you got.

Like I said, I don't play these stakes, but I'd do a prop bet on that 90% call turn cb shove when called flop stat. We can even make it a pot-sized turn bet, if you like.