Okay, I've played with villian for around 50 hands. He's running at 18/4. He's been playing so tight it's not funny. he's limp folding hands on flop/river a lot.

I get priced in with Q10 in the BB against some nice deep stacks.

I've noticed that the player that raised preflop is folding a lot if bet at after flop, so I wasn't worried there.

I was moreso waiting to isolate the tight villian.

What would you expect is a big enough bet to take him off a small pp or very weak K on the river?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (4 handed)

Hero (BB) ($6.42)
UTG ($10.36)
Button ($11.22)
SB ($11.56)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 10, Q
UTG bets $0.20, Button calls $0.20, SB calls $0.18, Hero calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.80) 4, K, 9 (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, Button bets $0.25, SB calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, 1 fold

Turn: ($1.55) 3 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button bets $0.30, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.45, Button calls $1.15

River: ($4.45) 4 (2 players)

Total pot: $4.45

You dont really want to be playing QTo oop but if you want to play "hit the flop big time or fold" poker great. You wiff the flop and call ... anyways I am not sure what you are thinking here.

A check/raise didn't scare him off so you have to ask yourself ... could ANYTHING scare him off. He wasn't folding.

I was getting a great price with Q10 and with huge implied odds, why wouldn't I play it, even OOP?

I know this person has a very weak K or bad pp. I know I can bet him off the hand on the river. I just want to know what you think the right price would be as opposed to what I actually did bet.

I will always put a bet out on the river if I feel the person has a hand I can bet them off. After playing around 50 hands I can tell this person will actually fold and I can't win if it goes c/c on the river.

Say I bet around $2, that means I need to be successful just under 50% of the time on that river bet to make it profitable to me. So would you say around $2 would be a good bet?

Fold pre-flop.

As played the flop is fine given you're getting a bit better than 5 to 1 immediate odds with your gut shot and stacks behind. Would be better if you had position though.

Given his insanely small turn bet you're getting like 6 to 1 immediate odds and could argue for a call. The check/raise is probably pretty bad.

As played check/fold the river.

And if you bet $2 into the $4.50 pot on the river here it's only got to work like 30% of the time (not a little under 50%).

I mean it only has to work just under 50% of the time for it to be profitable, not a flat % that it will work for sure.

Here's what happened, anyway.

River: ($4.45) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.80, 1 fold

Total pot: $4.45 | Rake: $0.20

reraise on flop or fold. a 3 on the turn isn't going to help you. he made a pretty weak bet on the flop but called your reraise on turn means tells me he has something big hiding or at least hit a king.

No it only has to work about 30% of the time to be profitable.

Oh okay, still working on the whole % of bets having to work etc.

Just for illustration purposes imagine ten times. 3 times it works and 7 times it doesn't:

7 X -$2 = -$14

3 X +$4.5 = +$13.50


So it's gotta work slightly more than 30% for the time to be profitable.



Out of ten; 5 times it works and 5 times it doesn't work.

5 X -$2 = -$10

5 X 4.5 = $22.50

22.50 - 10 = 12.50

12.50/10 = $1.25 .... that would be a profit of $1.25 per hand.




10 times; 3.3 times it works and 6.7 times it doesn't:

6.7 X $2 = $13.40

3.3 X $4.5 = $14.85

14.85 - 13.40 = $1.45

1.45/10 = $0.145 .... that would be a profit of 14.5 cents per hand.



You could just use percentages:

.67 X 2 = 1.34

.33 X 4.5 = 1.485

1.485 - 1.34 = .145



It's the same as how you look at pot odds when you call. If you are getting 2 to 1 on your call you need to be good 33% of the time to call. When you bet $2 into a $4 pot you're kinda getting 2 to 1 and he needs to fold 33% of the time for your bluff to be profitable.

Ahh cool, I see now - thanks for that dude.

Sure ... I edited and added some more also.