Hello,

I have a question regarding my game. Is it profitable in the long run to limp the big blind then call any standard raise (3x) in order to setmine?

If we know that we will hit a set 20% of the time, we will need to make the money back that we put when we dont hit and then fold.

Is this correct? What do you think?

Thanks for your thoughts.

Set mining is aprox 7-1 to flop one so that's more like 12 or 13%. I could be wrong but I try to have at least 10 times the call price in the effective stack

This is correct. Remember, when set mining, you're generally only looking to hit the set on the flop, otherwise it will likely cost you additional bets to keep digging.

So while it can certainly be profitable to do as OP suggests, you don't just want to be be blindly calling any raise. The smaller the bet, and the deeper the relative stacks, the more likely you would be to call.

You need implied odds of 15:1 or greater to profitably set mine, since you won't stack your opponent every time you flop your set.

Right, but you don't lose all pots when you don't hit a set either.

Then you're not purely set mining. If you're purely set mining, you fold when you don't hit your set.

Obviously, if you're in the BB and call a CO raise with 88, that's not set mining.

Much different than calling an EP raise from the CO with 33.

to play devils advocate i don't really understand this. We don't need to stack the opponent at all when we hit a set.

say it's early tournament and you're both deep stacked with 1500.

pot is sb and bb so 20 and 40 and utg makes it 120 and you call with your 7-1 set mine play. This means we need 120x 7 = 840 chips and we are already getting 180 so we subtract that off 840 so basically we need to extract 640 more chips from villains stack and we have 3 opportunities to do so, post flop, turn and river. That's half a stack of value with no stacking even needed.

The main point is, the higher your implied odds, the more profitable set mining becomes. In your example, you're getting a bit more than 11:1 implied. How much you make when you don't stack him is opponent dependent and changes with the size of your pair.

If I have 88 or 77, I'll call more liberally than I will with 22-55. Give yourself the biggest edge and (in a tournament) don't waste chips.

I believe that what Kurn is saying is that since you won't always extract that extra 640 chips from your opponent to make hitting the set profitable, you need adjust the odds to account for the times you won't make the play correct by winning the required amount.

So using your 120 scenario, if you call needing to make 640 more, and you catch your set but villain gets away from the hand without putting any more chips in, now you've got a 640 chip deficit in your long term profitability on that scenario. You over estimated your implied odds, and made what turned out to be a bad call.

Next time, same scenario, opponent has exactly 640 more chips behind after you hit your set, and he c-bets, you raise, he calls all in and you win. You're STILL behind by 640 chips that you didn't extract from the first time.

By this reasoning, you need higher implied odds to justify calling so that when you don't get the 640 from one opponent, you can get 1280 from the next one to get you back to profit.

Did I get that right, Kurn?

Correctamundo.

Not to mention that some non-zero percent of the time, you hit your set and get stacked.

woa that's some totally next level thinking right there and i like it

correct - setmining is purely running after the set then folding if you miss.

Also, even in scenarios where you aren't searching and then folding if you dont hit (maybe call that set hunting?) I feel like the % of pots you win in those situations is smaller than one would maybe imagine.

The less the table dynamic allows you to steal pots when set mining (and missing) the more implied odds you need in order to justify set mining to begin with. You need to have opponents who WILL pay you off or just fold 99- in most spots. You have to find your 'bar', some go as low as 77.

That's why set mining HU is not very good. You can set mine in a multi-way pot and have 30-40% of the chips you 'need' to collect already in the pot before the Flop. Then all you need to do is get some value from 1 or 2 opponent who stick around.

'Real' math set mining is 8 to 1 but most agree you need higher implied odds to make up for the times you don't get paid and also when you still lose even though you hit your set. Anywhere from 12 to 20 to 1 floats out there among poker players. If you are in a game that will fold to you a lot even if you miss, then you can lower that number as well. GL

No one purely set mines, not even beginners. For example, you may be set mining with 66, and the flop is 345 rainbow. Most aren't just folding that flop even if the intent was to set mine. Also plenty of times pots are raised pf and get checked down on certain boards with certain villains.

Thanks for reopening those wounds. They'd started to heal.

FWIW, your example is a reason to want higher implied odds to set mine. Weak players think this is a great flop.

In reality, they lose money when they miss, and don't win enough when they make their one card straight.

Not sure what you mean. This is a great flop against a lot of villains in a raised pot even if you have air.

... is irrelevant.

You are pre-flop. You are deciding whether or not you're going to call a raise with your small pair.

Are you thinking about making a 4 card straight? No. Why not? The odds are so trivial as to be inconsequential. You only start factoring in the extra 4 or 8 cards to make a straight if the board presents you with it.

So pre-flop you are set mining, or you're calling with the belief that you're presently ahead.

You mean you think villain sees 3,4,5 and assumes you called with 67 or A2 and nothing else?

If villain c-bets the 3,4,5 board and you call with 66 now you're chasing a straight +2 cards. You've got 8 cards to make a straight, 2 cards to make a set but your set might be dead on arrival by anyone with a 2 or a 7 in their hands, so you need to fade a little. Call it 9 cards instead of 10.

Oh hell lets go ahead and call it 10, it hardly matters. Now you have 10 outs instead of 2. (Assuming you're against an overpair better than yours) There's roughly a 40% chance of making your straight by the river if you get it all in, otherwise it's 20% per street and you can't even call a 1/2 pot bet profitably because you need 4:1 (1/3 pot) to justify.

Thus the need for higher IO pre - to balance the times you call the 2/3 pot bet on the flop, miss the turn, and fold before the river.

My point was that there are plenty of flops that even when set mining, you aren't just folding.

The only time i can think of that I'm purely set mining is against a super tight villain who is only raising KK+ and will jam all flops. Otherwise I'm never playing fit or fold.

I'm raising the flop if I think villain's range has a lot of overcards. If he jams, that typically narrows his range to an overpair+, and I calculate the pot odds to see if it is a profitable call.

My point is that the OP is asking about pre flop.

Pre flop you are calling with the belief you can play the hand profitably against the villain(s). I think your strategy is only confined to set mining if your villain had a narrow range and is jamming the vast majority of flops where you could hit a set. In that very specific case, the right implied odds are around 10:1.

You cannot limp in the big blind (you post it automatically). If its limped to you nobody else can raise anymore (if there is no straddle)

In the very softest games against terrible players, limp-calling a standard raise with a small pair should just about be profitable. Against halfway decent players (especially online), you generally shouldn't be open-limping at all. Small pairs are not great hands, especially when played passively out of position. They only flop sets 11.7% of the time, which means you'll be check-folding the flop exploitably often. The moment you limp in, everyone will think "This guy is a fish", and they will try to destroy you. When you limp-call and then check-raise a flop like KT5, your hand will be face up as a set of 5s, and the observant players won't pay you off, so there's basically no point in making this play.
If your hand isn't good enough to raise first in, just fold.