Quote:
Originally Posted by emmmrrrx
initially i put him on the 9 when he didnt ReRaise my flop bet. when he flat called the turn again, i kept him on either a 9, a straight or flush draw ( KQ, Q10, K9s, K10s ) .. when he ReRaised all in on the River, i figured he may have hit the K to have a bigger fullhouse ( than what he thought i would have had ) and this is why i called.
was my thinking wrong here? Should it have been obvious that he had a J with him? Constructive criticism is MUCH appreciated. Thanks guys
Yes, your thinking was wrong. And not because of what he had - but really how you thought about it.
1) You bet the flop and he called. Yes, there are a number of hands that can call there. But you essentially ruled out a J because he didn't raise you (he would be raising, not re-raising). Most people would never raise there with a J - why would they? A raise looks scary, and they don't want to scare you, they want to keep you interested and betting. You have to consider he might have a J.
2) You bet the turn and he calls. Now you think he has a 9, or a straight or flush draw. Certainly he'll call with a 9, but would he ever call with a straight or flush draw? There are 3 jacks out there - even the worst players out there know that drawing to a hand that is very likely beaten is a bad idea. So you can rule out the draw unless you are playing a complete drooler.
You can pretty much narrow his range down to any 9, any J, and any pair higher than 9. For some people - any pair, but pretty rare for someone to call 2 streets with 55 here.
3) On the river you haven't said how much was left - and so I have no idea if you are pot committed at this point. It is a tough spot, but unless he had KK or K9 he isn't likely to have stuck around with just a K, and KK is pretty likely to have 3-bet preflop.
When someone calls you on a paired board, immediately consider the possibility that they have trips. When they call a second time, strongly consider the possibility - and when they eventually raise you have to very strongly consider it. This doesn't mean they always have it - but don't be surprised when they do. Exercising pot control is a good idea - it isn't a great idea to play for stacks in this situation.