Hi guys,

I want to check out with you the method to test whether a call is profitable, without memorizing the pot odds tables.
Say you have a pot of 40 and a call costs you 4, then you are investing 10% of the pot with your call. The number of estimated outs is 6. Using the Phil Gordon's rule of two I estimate that the probability of completing my draw within the next street is 6x2=12%. Since this probability (12%) is greater than the percentage invested (10%) the call is profitable. Is it correct?
Thanks

you are getting 10-1 on your call, so you only need to win 1/11 times which is 9% of the time.

so if you are 12% to improve to a hand that wins, then yes its profitable to call.

I figured out an approximation:if I multiply the pot by the probability to improve to an hand that wins (calculated as above) I get the maximum bet size that I should call. Is it ok or I just have to memorize the exact values of the tables to be more accurate?

That's fine for expressed odds. Do you think you can get another bet or two out of him if you make your hand? If so, that changes the math - especially if you are playing NL.

Fortunately or unfortunately, I play FL.

Are you referring to implied odds? In that case how does the math change? Shouldn't I just add the number of expected extra bets to the pot size and multiply the result by the probability as above?

Yes, just add the bets that you expect. You wil want to discount it somewhat unless your opponent is that type who just never folds.

Yeas, man--, but you gonna have to draw to the nuts not just to improve the goddamned hand to a better hand that you have at the moment. You gonna have to make the nuts so your outs got to be the "clean" outs to the nut. You cannot draw to the idiot end of a straight because you may lose even more. You don't want to draw to a baby flush with small suited cards in your hand because you may lose the entire stack. If you suspect a set is out there against you and you gonna try to flush you've got only 7 clean outs to flush and win. Two of the goddamned flush cards will pair the goddamned board making your flush but at the same time giving a full house the the other dude. So, take this into consideration before you draw in NL. I really don't like to draw when playing NL. This game of NL it's not a drawing game, so to speak, like the limit is. In limit we almost always draw to some hand because the price we get is almost always good, so to speak. If you know your math for limit and draw based on that math and know what the goddamned game is, you will make money in the long run. I like to play limit too. I play both goddamned games.

Che,

Your approximation is, in general, not very good. If you want to allow the pot to vary, based on villain's bet, the maximum amount you should call is eq*Pot/(1-2eq), where Pot is the amount in the pot before villain's bet and eq is the chance you win. This is derived from the basic EV equation for a call without implied odds:

EV = eq(Pot + Bet) - (1-eq)Bet.


In your example, the pot was 36 before villain bet, so the max bet you should call with your 12% equity is 0.12*36/0.76 = 5.68. Your approximation was only 4.80.
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If you want to keep the pot sized fixed (it already includes villain's bet), the maximum amount you should call is eq*Pot/(1-eq).The applicable EV equation is

EV = eq(Pot) - (1-eq)Call.

where Pot now includes villain's bet.

In your example, the pot was 40 after villain bet, so the max you should call with your 12% equity is 0.12*40/0.88= 5.45. Again, your 4.80 approximation is low.