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Pot Odds Calculation: Different in Annie Duke's book Decide to Play Great Poker? Pot Odds Calculation: Different in Annie Duke's book Decide to Play Great Poker?

12-06-2023 , 05:24 PM
I have read a few books on poker already, and all of them talk about pot odds. I noticed one of the authors (Annie Duke) calculates it differently.

Let me give an example. Say there are 1000 chips in the pot and the player in front me me bets 100. All the other authors I read would do the pot odds calculation like this: I have to pay 100 to call (risk 100) in order to win 1200 (original 1000, plus the opponent bet of 100 plus my own call of 100). This means the pot odds are 8.3%, or 100 divided by 1200.

Annie Duke does it differently in her book though! She does not add my call to the reward part of the equation! She says the pot odds are 100 (my call) divided by 1100 (the original pot of 1000 plus the opponent bet of 100 only). So her pot odds are 9.0%.

Did Annie Duke get this wrong in her book? I swear all the other authors include the call bet in the denominator, because if I win the hand I get my called bet back!

Last edited by pvalaci; 12-06-2023 at 05:35 PM.
Pot Odds Calculation: Different in Annie Duke's book Decide to Play Great Poker? Quote
12-06-2023 , 08:37 PM
There are two ways of doing this calculation (not sure if you have Annie's correct). They are both correct, but they approach it differently.

The way that Annie does it is actually about pot odds. Odds are different from percentages (and I could be wrong about what Annie does, because I haven't read it).

If the pot is 1000 someone bets 100, you have to call 100 to win 1100. You do not add in your call. The pot odds are 1100 / 100 or 11 to 1. That is a way of expressing odds. If you had 5 outs, and there were 45 cards left (just to make it simply), the odds against you are 40 to 5 or 8 to 1 (40 cards make you lose, 5 allow you to win). Since 11 to 1 is higher than 8 to 1, you could profitably call.

To do it using percentages, you do include your call. You have to call 100 to win an entire pot of 1200, so your portion would be 100/ 1200 a bit over 8%. Using the same outs - you have 5 outs out of 45 or about 11% chance of winning. Since 11% is more than 8%, you can profitably call.

Both methods will lead to the same result, they simply approach it differently. What is important is that YOU understand which one you are using, and therefore do the correct comparison. If the odds are 4 to 1 against you, you have a 20% chance of winning - not 25%. You would add 4+1 and divide by 1 - so 1/5, which is basically taking the entire pot (or the entire deck) and dividing it by your portion.
Pot Odds Calculation: Different in Annie Duke's book Decide to Play Great Poker? Quote
12-06-2023 , 08:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VBAces
There are two ways of doing this calculation (not sure if you have Annie's correct). They are both correct, but they approach it differently.

The way that Annie does it is actually about pot odds. Odds are different from percentages (and I could be wrong about what Annie does, because I haven't read it).

If the pot is 1000 someone bets 100, you have to call 100 to win 1100. You do not add in your call. The pot odds are 1100 / 100 or 11 to 1. That is a way of expressing odds. If you had 5 outs, and there were 45 cards left (just to make it simply), the odds against you are 40 to 5 or 8 to 1 (40 cards make you lose, 5 allow you to win). Since 11 to 1 is higher than 8 to 1, you could profitably call.

To do it using percentages, you do include your call. You have to call 100 to win an entire pot of 1200, so your portion would be 100/ 1200 a bit over 8%. Using the same outs - you have 5 outs out of 45 or about 11% chance of winning. Since 11% is more than 8%, you can profitably call.

Both methods will lead to the same result, they simply approach it differently. What is important is that YOU understand which one you are using, and therefore do the correct comparison. If the odds are 4 to 1 against you, you have a 20% chance of winning - not 25%. You would add 4+1 and divide by 1 - so 1/5, which is basically taking the entire pot (or the entire deck) and dividing it by your portion.
Thank you for the clarification! I tend to always want to calculate the risk/return (call/pot after call) in percentages cuz it is easier for me to compare that to outs/remaining cards in the deck. I had not realized that doing it in "odds" does not require adding my call to the denominator (or actually numerator!). Seeing authors express these things in "odds" seriously confuses me haha. Your explanation really helped.

Last edited by pvalaci; 12-06-2023 at 09:19 PM.
Pot Odds Calculation: Different in Annie Duke's book Decide to Play Great Poker? Quote
12-07-2023 , 03:04 AM
I think % i easier for me, just think if pot odds % are > % of making hand

call!
Pot Odds Calculation: Different in Annie Duke's book Decide to Play Great Poker? Quote
12-07-2023 , 06:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the pleasure
I think % i easier for me, just think if pot odds % are > % of making hand

call!
This may confuse some as stated. ( I missed the call! part several times)

As VBaces showed, pot odds defined by

(Hero investment)/(Total pot after all bets) [100/1200 = 8.3% in the example]

is the equity you need for EV>=0
Pot Odds Calculation: Different in Annie Duke's book Decide to Play Great Poker? Quote
12-11-2023 , 01:20 PM
Do you like fractions or percentages? Most like percentages but some do both without knowing it!

The bottom line for any beginner is to make the math easy since you really shouldn't be making EV decisions based on a swing of 5% either way IMO. You will find that you will naturally memorize the classic poker spots and then compare that to the amount of bet you are facing.

In the long run you also need to consider how your opponent view you. If your opponents know that you are heavily math based then all they have to do is bet 1.25 the pot and you will 'have to' fold all your draws .. right? Then they can print chips so to speak. When you get deeper into poker you will come across Implied Odds and Player Ranges. Once you master comparing Pot Odds to Equity these two items will really open up poker for you to study even more.


100 v 1100 .. "I'm going to win 11x my call if I win" .. My 'offered' odds are 11 to 1 It's almost like the old sports betting way of looking at things. Your opponent is the Bookie and he's offering you 11 to 1 to take the bet. Now you have to decide if that 'long shot' will come in, so to speak.

100 to win 1200 .. "I need to win once every 12 hands to break even" (8.33%) .. Is my equity (outs) at least 10% (for easy math)? (Do I have 4-5 cards that will help me win the pot? With practice manipulating the math will come natural. "I need to win 4 out of every 48 hands to break even" (still 8.33%) .. and now you know you need 4 outs or better to make a good decision since there's either 47 (Flop) or 46 (Turn) unknown cards if playing NL. GL
Pot Odds Calculation: Different in Annie Duke's book Decide to Play Great Poker? Quote

      
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