Cash game, FR, 100bb relative stacks. UTG raises to 5bb. You're in MP with AA. Does a 3-bet to 15bb pot-commit you?

Do I need to provide more contextual information for the question to be meaningfully answerable, i.e. does it matter what hero's skill edge is compared to everyone else, does it matter what the reads are on the rest of the table, has the whole table been playing aggressive or passive etc. - in other words does the simple question "are you pot committed" depend on anything else other than the % of your stack you put in the pot?

? Having AA pot commits you?!

30% effective stacks is usually the figure for preflop pot commitment

I think this example is a little skewed. You are ALWAYS pot committed with AA preflop. Now given we have a random hand in your 3b range, the answer on whether your pot committed or not depends on a lot of things. A few of those things include: the aggression of your opponents, the amount of money in the pot, their perceived vision of hero etc etc. Another big factor is the stakes that are being played. Generally at higher stakes there is a lot of light 3/4 betting so I would say at higher stakes there is a lot less "pot commitment" relative to pot size

"Pot commitment" as a concept is just a semi-useful simplification. In reality, there is no such thing as "pot commitment". We evaluate our equity relative to the odds we're facing.

I've played against opponents who would bet such a small fraction of the pot that it was correct to call the turn with some very weak draws, leaving me with less than a pot sized bet left on the river, but I think it was totally correct to call these bets and then fold when I missed, although I had invested a significant portion of my stack.

How do you think you measure being committed OP?

The reason I ask this particular question:

I have a friend who has been playing live poker for almost 10 years and has probably turned a five-figure lifetime profit. I went to the casino with him to watch him play, hoping to learn from him.

He was playing $1/$3NL. Relative stacks were about 100bb. There was a hand where UTG raised to $15, my friend had JJ in MP and 3-bet to $45 (which I agree with 100%), the button, BB, and UTG all called. So far good. Flop came 832r. I was thinking, oh yeah my buddy's gonna get rich. But BB donked $150 into everybody. I thought, *$#@ he's gonna have to fold. But he didn't fold - he shoved!!!! The other guy flipped over his pocket 8s and they held up.

As we were walking back to the ATM so he could buy in again I asked him, "What the *$(#@( were you thinking??? The BB donked damned near full pot into 3 people who liked their hands enough to put 15bb in the pot before the flop! What did you think he would do that with that JJ was ahead of???" He said, "I was pot committed man - I got unlucky".

Personally, I think he just had a brain fart on that particular hand - no way does 15% of your stack equate to pot commitment IMHO. But the fact remains he has a lot more experience and success than I do, so I don't want to just immediately dismiss his logic as a mistake without getting the opinions of others more experienced than me as well.

I'd probably fold KK in that spot without clear reads that the villain donks with considerably less than the nuts.

I think that's a stupid way of thinking.

Example hand: I picked up KK 200bb deep in FR online micros. I get a passive player on the hook. I bet pot on flop and he calls, turn is not a good card for me as it hits a bunch of his range but I pot again and he shoves over the top. Im thinking "well I already put this much money in and he MIGHT have a worse hand here so I call". So basically I thought I was pot commited even though I knew I was beat here most of the time I still put the money in.

"pot commited" is just an excuse for making bad calls sometimes

Hahaha, <3 your friend.

Let's look at your friend's hand a different way. There is about $180 in the pot, and the remaining stack size is about $255. The SPR here is under 1.5. He flopped an overpair. He is pretty much pot committed there.

Suppose instead of donking, the villain had checked (which most people would do with top set). If your friend bets $150 there he has $105 left, and would have to call if raised. If just called, he would have to put it in on the turn.

Suppose villain had bet $75. Should he fold (nobody would fold that)? Should he call? Should he raise? The only reason to simply call would be to get it in on the turn, trying to induce a bluff, because you'd figure you were ahead. The reason to raise would be to get it in before a scare card came on the turn. If a scare card doesn't come, you would certainly be pot committed. Given that you'd only have $180 left, and a pot of over $300, I'd go ahead and shove. And I would want him to call.

Therefore, if you are pot committed on a check, and you are pot committed on a smaller bet, you are pretty much pot committed on a bigger bet. The SPR is simply too low to be folding. Especially in live poker. You wonder what someone in a live game would donk with on that board? AK, AQ, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, A8, A3,A2, 99, TT, 66,77,55 - an awful lot (some of them are less likely than others). They know you don't have a set (they don't know it, but think it is very unlikely) and if they think you will fold anything but a set then it is a good bet. If they think you have AK and figure you'll fold without a pair, then it is a good bet.

Quite honestly, the least likely hand to be donking there is top set (or any set), because most players would not donk such a monster. If anyone ever finds out that you would fold to a big donk bet any time you don't have a set, you are going to find yourself folding an awful lot of winners.

Also, in your question to your friend you mentioned that "3 people who liked their hands enough to put 15bb in the pot before the flop". In live poker, (I've never played higher than $1/$3 live so I don't know about higher stakes) everybody and their brother thinks that calling 15bb with speculative hands is a good idea. I've seen someone blind call a straddle with T6 offsuit, then when it was raised and reraised all-in for 55bb she called that.

Thanks VBAces, but are you sure you're not exaggerating, even greatly exaggerating, the range with which villains would donk into a 3-better and 2 callers? How many times have you really seen a villain donk AK or TT or 99 there? That was meant as a legitimate question - I've probably only played 10 to 12 hours of live $1/$2 in my entire life so I'll trust your input more than my own.

With regard to this comment: "If anyone ever finds out that you would fold to a big donk bet any time you don't have a set, you are going to find yourself folding an awful lot of winners." does that even apply to a 4-way pot? BB knows Hero might be willing to fold a hand as strong as KK there, but what about UTG and BTN?

These are very good questions, and the most important thing is that it does depend upon the players. Most of my live experience is in home games, but with people who also play in card rooms. My card room experience is limited, but I think it is fairly comparable.

And so I'd say that a high percentage of hands are played 4-handed or more. Obviously the percentage isn't as high for 3-bet pots, but it still is a lot higher than you will see online. I would have to say that the number of times I've seen someone make a large donk bet with top set is a lot lower than the times I've simply seen a donk bet with top pair, two overs, or a middle pair.

In the discussion we are having, though, I don't think this matters that much. And that is because of the low SPR. When you are very deep it is much more of a concern. When you 3-bet a hand like JJ you are doing so for value. You think you have the best hand, though you know you might not. You wouldn't mind if everyone folded, but (live) you don't expect they will, and you don't mind if they don't.

So that brings us to the flop. When you have a big pair you want to either flop a set, or flop an overpair. With a high SPR you have to be a little concerned if someone else seems willing to bet it all-in on what seems like an ideal board for you. With a low SPR the hand pretty much plays itself. Certainly you prefer to flop a set, but you have an overpair and would need a terrible board or very strong signals to fold when the stacks are so shallow.
If someone bets near pot, and a tight player shoves all-in before it gets to you would be a strong signal. But a single donk bet is not that signal. If it is, then it means you were 3-bet-setmining, which is really burning money.

How often does a live low stakes vil donk TT or 99 there? Quite a lot, you will also see 98, A8s, 87s and even 77 type hands too. This is what makes live so fun - against some vils this is a snap shove fist pump lets print $ while against old man coffee you can even think about folding bottom set. As the board is quite dry I would have called to keep vils entire one pair range in (even live donks can fold to a raise) so he can put you on AK and fire turn with his 8x type hands at least then you are not always getting it in bad but minus reads I have a hard time folding.

it helps to think about this game in terms of statistics and probability, risk and reward.

if someone's only doing that with sets, does that mean every time they don't have a set they are going just fold like a bitch? and that's if their preflop range are only pocket pairs - if you add all the random bull**** to their range, how much of it connects with the flop in a way that's "good enough to bet into 3 people" by your definition?

now, take into account the fact that there is less than a PSB left, which should indicate the threshold of hands which go in, i.e., anything with a piece of the board. no one's putting in a 1/3 of their stack to set mine. in other words, if you call a 3bet with 2 random cards (which they probably do), what are you hoping for? are you going to check/fold 19/20 times? cuz that is what you're implying when you say "oh **** he must have the nuts"

tl:dr - strong hands don't magically materialise in peoples hands when the flop hits. hands are hard to make in this game

tl:dr2 - if you fold KK for 150 into a 180 pot on 832r, just drop poker

Thanks for everyone's points of view.

I would like to ask a related question - on an 832r board, with what hands might you consider it CORRECT to donk into a MP 3-better with UTG and BTN callers from the BB? Not saying what live villains *would* donk with, just wondering when/if it's ever correct.

it isnt correct to call a $50 3bet when you start with $200. once you do, it doesnt matter how you play it postflop. if the flop hits you in any way shape or form the money is going in regardless of the line you take. this doesnt answer your question but I hope it puts things into context

That actually makes sense. Would you also say "it isn't correct to 3-bet to $45 when you start with $300 unless you're PLANNING to go all in if the board connects with you in any way, shape or form including flopping an overpair?"

I could even extend the question to, if you 3-bet to $45 pre with JJ starting with $300 are there any flops you WOULDN'T get it in on? Heck, even AKQ flops you a broadway draw. AKx maybe?

Depending on the type of player, I'd see that big raise as "I have a big 8 and I want to protect my hand". It seems silly to bet people out when you have the nuts. I like the push there if the player who bet it is pretty aggressive. I guess I'm just a fish.

3betting is fine.

Basically any flop with 2 overs. Any flop with an A is pretty bad because people like Ax so much. But that leaves plenty of flops you can still continue on.

AKQ is like the nut worst flop for you.

So you're saying if you 3-bet pre with JJ and got AKx, AQx or KQx on the flop and got donked into (from the BB *or* UTG really) you could probably find a fold?

If by "find a fold" you mean "snapfold vs 95% of players".

Question:

How does my friend's compare to this one:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...addle-1448777/

SPR is higher in that hand - about 3 vs. about 1.5
We have TPTK on a reasonably dry board instead of an overpair on a TOTALLY dry board.
In both cases we've invested 15bb before the flop but stacks are much deeper in the other hand.

Is that hand as obvious a GII situation as my friend's?

I was going to start a new thread for this question but I thought I'd tack it on here because I'd like to hear the difference between how my friend played his JJ hand vs. how this villain played his JJ hand.

What I *don't* know about this villain is the extent to which he pays attention to the other players and/or acts on his reads when he makes decisions. But the table has been playing somewhat chaotically - preflop raises are everything from $5 to $18, and whether or not raises get called in multiple spots does not seem to depend on the size of the raise. Postflop play is mostly passive but people are showing willingness to bet without the nuts.

villain has about a 150bb stack, BTN about a 95bb stack, remaining villains stack sizes vary from 40 to 200 bb.

So on to the hand - UTG live straddles to $5. UTG+2 calls, MP calls, villain is in the HJ with JJ and calls. BTN calls, both blinds fold, UTG checks his option.

5 players, pot $27. The flop comes 762r. Checks around to villain who bets $30. BTN looks nervous (whether or not the villain KNEW the button looked nervous, I don't know) and after tanking for about 20 seconds, calls. Everyone else folds.

2 players, pot $87. Turn is a 9. Villain bets $50. BTN looks disgusted, tanks for about 10 seconds and goes all in for his last $155.

How is the villain's play up to this point? Should the villain call the all in?

I agree with this 100%. 'Pot committed' means 'I don't know how to range my opponents or calculate equity against the range, so Imma just gonna call'.