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05-19-2025 , 01:25 PM
Hi Forums,

I've taken it upon myself to do my own little bankroll challenge. My goal is to run $100 up to $5k to build a bankroll enough to play 100NL with the goal of eventually being a 200NL regular. I have played quite a bit of live poker and MTTs online and have dipped in cash games but never too it that seriously.

I deposited $100 and started at 2NL where I'd like to say I crushed the game.



Eventually, I moved up to 5NL where I ran quite bad, however, after a bit of a sunrun I built up a bit (after some rakeback as well) to take a shot at 10NL.



At 10NL I think it went about as bad as it possibly could have gone. I'm -EV in my all ins and down 4.5BI over 2300 hands. It's a small sample, however, the question becomes, am I losing at this stake, or did I run into it bad where my -EV isn't truly -EV against ranges, just against specific circumstances when I got it in? I'll detail a few hands below.



1.) Run KK into AA pre - standard.
2.) I feel like this was significantly unlucky.


PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (UTG): 135.9 BB
MP: 101.5 BB
CO: 119.2 BB
BTN: 115.1 BB
SB: 107.7 BB
BB: 64.7 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q Q

Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 1.5 BB, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 3 players) 9 4 5
SB checks, BB bets 2 BB, Hero raises to 7 BB, fold, BB calls 5 BB

Turn: (20 BB, 2 players) Q
BB checks, Hero bets 12 BB, BB calls 12 BB

River: (44 BB, 2 players) K
BB bets 20.9 BB, Hero raises to 92 BB, BB calls 22.8 BB and is all-in

Hero shows Q Q (Three of a Kind, Queens)
(Pre 18%, Flop 8%, Turn 95%)
BB shows K K (Three of a Kind, Kings)
(Pre 82%, Flop 92%, Turn 5%)
BB wins 124.8 BB

3.) I'm not 100% sure on this one - I maybe over valued bottom set and I likely should have raised earlier in the hand.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 122.4 BB
MP: 128.8 BB
CO: 120.3 BB
Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 210.9 BB
BB: 211.7 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 2 2

fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop: (10 BB, 3 players) A Q 2
SB checks, CO bets 3.1 BB, Hero calls 3.1 BB, fold

Turn: (16.2 BB, 2 players) K
CO bets 11.6 BB, Hero calls 11.6 BB

River: (39.4 BB, 2 players) 3
CO bets 28.1 BB, Hero raises to 82.3 BB and is all-in, CO calls 54.2 BB

Hero shows 2 2 (Three of a Kind, Twos)
(Pre 48%, Flop 85%, Turn 23%)
CO shows J T (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 52%, Flop 15%, Turn 77%)
CO wins 194 BB


4.) Against SB I didn't give much credit, however, I may have stationed here.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 189.3 BB
CO: 103.9 BB
Hero (BTN): 140.5 BB
SB: 100.5 BB
BB: 187.1 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9 9

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, SB raises to 12 BB, fold, Hero calls 9 BB

Flop: (25 BB, 2 players) 4 4 5
SB bets 17 BB, Hero calls 17 BB

Turn: (59 BB, 2 players) 6
SB bets 35 BB, Hero calls 35 BB

River: (129 BB, 2 players) 7
SB bets 36.5 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 36.5 BB

SB shows Q Q (Two Pair, Queens and Fours)
(Pre 81%, Flop 92%, Turn 95%)
Hero shows 9 9 (Two Pair, Nines and Fours)
(Pre 19%, Flop 8%, Turn 5%)
SB wins 192 BB

5.) I feel this hand is standard as well.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 114.8 BB
BTN: 201.7 BB
Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 140.6 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K A

CO raises to 2.5 BB, BTN raises to 9 BB, Hero raises to 25 BB, fold, fold, BTN raises to 201.7 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 75 BB and is all-in

Flop: (203.5 BB, 2 players) 6 T 2

Turn: (203.5 BB, 2 players) J

River: (203.5 BB, 2 players) J

Hero shows K A (One Pair, Jacks)
(Pre 34%, Flop 8%, Turn 11%)
BTN shows K K (Flush, King High)
(Pre 66%, Flop 92%, Turn 89%)
BTN wins 193.5 BB



Feedback is much appreciated. I'm moving back down to 5NL to build that roll back up and take another shot, but I feel like I need to review these hands as well to know where I'm making mistakes, or if I'm simply just running bad in these spots.

Last edited by camosunkid; 05-19-2025 at 01:35 PM.
Possible variance or just an unsuccessful shot? Quote
Possible variance or just an unsuccessful shot?
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Possible variance or just an unsuccessful shot?
05-19-2025 , 05:37 PM
2300 hands is not merely a small sample. It is virtually nothing. Even if you add up your samples from all three stakes you've played so far, it is still a small sample.

Regarding hand 3: coldcalling on the BTN with small pairs (or any other hand, really) is by no means the standard play. I'll leave it at that - BBV isn't really the place for in-depth hand analysis. Online No-Limit Hold'em Cash is where you want to be.

You might very well be a winning player at 10NL, but it'll take a lot of studying to become a winning 200NL player pre-rakeback. It is not as easy as it used to be, but it can be done.
Possible variance or just an unsuccessful shot? Quote
05-19-2025 , 07:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sheep86
2300 hands is not merely a small sample. It is virtually nothing. Even if you add up your samples from all three stakes you've played so far, it is still a small sample.

Regarding hand 3: coldcalling on the BTN with small pairs (or any other hand, really) is by no means the standard play. I'll leave it at that - BBV isn't really the place for in-depth hand analysis. Online No-Limit Hold'em Cash is where you want to be.

You might very well be a winning player at 10NL, but it'll take a lot of studying to become a winning 200NL player pre-rakeback. It is not as easy as it used to be, but it can be done.
Thanks for the feedback and I'll move the post there for hopefully more feedback!
Possible variance or just an unsuccessful shot? Quote
05-20-2025 , 08:12 AM
The Online No-Limit Hold'em Cash mods wouldn't like it if I went ahead and moved the entire post/thread there. One hand per thread and no results is the way to go.

I'll move this to Beginners Questions instead.
Possible variance or just an unsuccessful shot? Quote
05-30-2025 , 04:57 PM
the last hand is fold pre after the 5bet. all the other hands ur losing ur stack.
Possible variance or just an unsuccessful shot? Quote
06-02-2025 , 09:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pileupthecoins
the last hand is fold pre after the 5bet. all the other hands ur losing ur stack.
I don’t know. The hand before that, hero has 99 and the river gives 4 to a straight and completes a back door flush draw. Literally any pocket pair other than 22 has hero beat, any A8o or A3 suited combo has us beat, and now any suited hearts do as well. I think I might be able to find a fold on this river (if not earlier).

I agree though on the first three - those are coolers; you are supposed to lose your stack on these.
Possible variance or just an unsuccessful shot? Quote
06-06-2025 , 11:49 AM
The 99 hand im probably folding turn without a lot of history with villain but river i think you have to find a fold. The board is so ridiculously wet and he is not scared, although qq is a thin value shove he obv had you pegged.

The 22 hand I am not shoving the river if I get there that way. Just me, but I feel you're usually getting looked up by only better or maybe top 2. But again this is 10nl and I haven't played it in ages. I hear they're getting pretty good at that level. So consider this advice is coming from someone who plays quite a bit higher .

Youll be fine, keep playing.
Possible variance or just an unsuccessful shot? Quote
Possible variance or just an unsuccessful shot?
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Possible variance or just an unsuccessful shot?

      
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