Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 5,093
Say pot = 100 and 1/2 pot bets. Using your assumptions, villain folds F on flop and 2F on turn, F<0.5, and you have air. (River??)
EV = F*100 + (1-F)*(2F*150-(1-2F)*150)
Setting EV to 0 the required fold equity is 20.7% on the first bluff and 41.3% for the 2nd barrel.
For a more general equation, let P =initial pot, F = initial fold equity, kF = 2nd barrel fold equity and b= fraction of current pot that is bet:
EV= F*P+(1-F)*(kF*(P+bP)-(1-kF)*(bP+b*(P+2bP))
The way I would solve this for one of the variables is to use named variables in Excel and then apply the Goal Seek function.
